The End of the Franchise Quarterback Era

It’s the most important position in football.

It’s the hardest position to play in sports.

We hear these things about quarterbacks all the time, and these statements are true. But we’ve exaggerated their meaning, and overrated the position.

The Cowboys reportedly offered quarterback Dak Prescott a contract worth $33 million per season, and he turned it down. He wants $35 million per. In a sport with a salary cap. On a team that has to pay 52 other players.

And Prescott probably will get what he wants eventually, because Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson makes $35 million per season. That’s the new rate for a good quarterback.

And the price goes up every year.

Should it?

Wilson currently earns a whopping 16 percent of the Seahawks’ cap space. And he’s an all-time great quarterback, arguably the best in the NFL today. But he probably won’t win a Super Bowl while he hoards that much of his team’s cap space. He hasn’t won a Super Bowl since 2013, when he earned just 0.5 percent of the Seahawks’ cap.

Since 2000, only three quarterbacks have won a Super Bowl while earning more than nine percent of their team’s cap: Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Eli Manning. Every other Super-Bowl-winning quarterback since 2000 earned less than nine percent of his team’s cap. That includes Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger. As great as those three are, none of them has won a Super Bowl since they started making tons of money a decade ago.

And yet, 16 quarterbacks currently earn more than nine percent of their teams’ cap space. Including Jimmy Garoppolo, who will earn 12.9 percent of the 49ers’ cap in 2020. Last season, he earned just 8.6 percent. His price tag went up, meaning his performance must improve as well. He needs to play like a Brady or a Manning to justify his contract and win a Super Bowl. And Garoppolo just might play like them. He rarely loses.

But teams have spent too much money on quarterbacks the past 10 years. And the teams with good, cheap quarterbacks tend to win the Super Bowl. Patrick Mahomes’ won it while earning 2.4 percent of the Chiefs’ cap in 2019. And Nick Foles won it while earning 0.9 percent of the Eagles’ cap in 2017.

The Cowboys absolutely should not give Prescott $35 million per season. They missed the playoffs last season when he made $2.1 million. They’re kidding themselves if they think they’ll be better when Prescott’s cap percentage jumps from 1.1 to 15 or 16.

Notice the Patriots didn’t sign a starting quarterback this offseason. They gave the starting job to 2019 fourth-round pick Jarrett Stidham, and will pay him just 0.4 percent of their cap in 2020. If Stidham plays well, the Patriots will have the biggest advantage in pro sports: a good, cheap quarterback. If he doesn’t play well, the Patriots will stink, get a top draft pick next year, which they’ll use on a good, cheap quarterback.

This is the newest trend in the NFL. Forward-thinking organizations have rethought the need to spend through the nose for quarterbacks. All the rules favor the offense. Defenses barely can touch quarterbacks these days. Playing quarterback in the NFL is easier than ever. That’s why so many young quarterbacks have had huge success recently.

So why pay $25 million for a quarterback when you can get similar production for $750,000?

If Rodgers and Brees can’t win the Super Bowl making more than nine percent of their teams’ cap, your favorite quarterback probably can’t, either.