Projecting the 49ers' Record and the NFC Playoff Seeds

At 9-4 and potentially favored in all four of their remaining games, the 49ers can challenge for the division title or a favorable seed in the wild card round. How does the final month play out in the NFC?

49ers

Projected record: 12-5
Ten W, at Ind W, Chi W, Sea L
One loss out of Indy, Chicago, and Seattle is realistic; the Seahawks are the toughest matchup.

Offense: The red zone offense is cooking, 20 touchdowns in their last 25 possessions. Brock Purdy had thrown the ball away seven times on the season and threw it away six times against the Browns to avoid turnovers. Improved decisions from Purdy increase the 49ers' chances of winning out; they are 3-0 in games when they don't turn the ball over.

Christian McCaffrey is limited on the ground but 4th in the league in receptions. He and George Kittle are getting about half of the targets; the receivers need to step up as the Niners hope the bye week will help Ricky Pearsall get back to full health.

Defense: Clelin Ferrell is playing the best football of his career, four sacks in four games, and he led the Niners with nine tackles in Cleveland. The run defense will be helped by Tatum Bethune likely returning against Tennessee. A subtle factor has been Malik Mustapha’s return to peak shape and making clutch plays to stuff the run.

LA Rams

Nov 30, 2025; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) looks to pass during the four — Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

Projected record: 13-4, NFC West champion
Det L, at Sea W, at Atl W, Arz W

The next two games are tough matchups for the Rams; the Detroit game should be a track meet. The Seahawks game is for the division, the season, and the #1 seed. The last two should be gimmes. Can the Rams win the next two?

Even with one loss to close out, the Rams are well-positioned for the #1 seed, and they will need it, as their offense won’t travel well in cold weather games with rain or snow.

The Rams have a fatal flaw at defensive back, and that may force them to win shootouts to get to the Super Bowl. The offense can do it, provided the games are at SoFi.

Chicago

Projected record: 12-5, NFC North champion
At GB L, Cle W, GB W, SF L, Det W

The Bears are the NFC’s hottest team, winning five straight, but they face a buzz saw to close the year, including the Packers in two of the next three that should decide the division.

A great offensive line is leading the running attack, and Chicago needs it with Caleb Williams barely completing over 50% of his passes in recent games. The defense leads the league in takeaways and depends on it, as the Bears are 30th in yards per play against at 6.1. That said, Chicago finally has its starting secondary back; the Packers game will tell us a lot about the Bears defense in the final month.

Philadelphia

Projected record: 11-6, NFC East champion
At LAC W, LV W, at Wash L, at Buf L, Wash W

Two straight losses with the offense not producing, the Eagles need to right the ship immediately. Playing the Chargers and Raiders next will help.

NFL history predicts that running backs after a record season fall back to Earth, and Saquon Barkley has been mortal this year at 740 yards for the season. The Eagles once again struggle under a new offensive coordinator. They have the talent to repeat as champions, but the confident vibes of last year are gone.

Tampa Bay

Projected record: 11-6, NFC South champion
NO W, Atl W, at Car L, at Mia W, Car W

Tampa could run the table; they benefit from having their five remaining games all close to home, only traveling to Carolina and Miami. Tampa Bay lost to Philadelphia head-to-head, so the Eagles are ranked higher.

The Bucs have been one of the most injured teams in the league, but they now expect receivers Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan and DT Calijah Kancey to all return before the end of the season. If that happens, Tampa will be a different and dangerous team in the playoffs.

Seattle

Projected record: 13-4
At Atl W, Ind W, LAR L, at Car W, at SF W

The Rams matchup is the season, and in high-stakes games, Sam Darnold has a history of not playing well. The last time he faced the Rams, he had four picks. The rematch in Seattle is forecast for rain and snow in the low 30s at night. In the first game, Kyren Williams ran for over 90 yards. That and Darnold in big games, I take the Rams.

Green Bay

Projected record: 11-5-1
Chi W, at Den L, at Chi L, Bal W, Min W

The Packers control their destiny, win both of the Bears games and they take the division, split and it gets tricky, but the tie works in their favor. Going to Denver is a brutal matchup. The Broncos have won nine straight.

The Packers have won three straight behind their offense, averaging 27 points over that stretch. The defense has been hurt by recent injuries on the defensive line, they’ll need to turn to untested backups and rookies at defensive tackle.

On the outside

Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff (16) runs against Green Bay Packers during the second half at Ford Field in Detroit on T — Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

I have Detroit falling short of the playoffs at 10-7. Dallas is playing well with three straight wins, but it’s too late for the Cowboys at 9-7-1.

The NFC Seeds

The Rams get the #1 seed at 13-4 and an essential home field throughout.

The wild card games:

Seattle at Tampa Bay

Green Bay at Chicago

San Francisco at Philadelphia

To play Tampa in the wild card round, the Niners would likely need to beat Seattle in the season finale and finish with the same record or better than the Seahawks. Otherwise, they are probably looking at a wild card game in the snow at Chicago, Green Bay, or Philadelphia.