Too Early NFC Predictions

Everybody and his brother have the 49ers going 12-5. I have them at 11-6, but then I have a well-earned rep as a “get off my lawn” curmudgeon. Expanding the predictions to the NFC and the conference playoffs, let me break out my tarot cards. De cahds nevah lie.

NFC

The story in the NFC is if the Lions and Packers have closed the gap with the Niners. Those three should be the Super Bowl contenders. A tier down to the Rams and Eagles, with Atlanta taking the NFC South from Tampa Bay and Dallas beating out Seattle for a wild card slot.

7. LA Rams 11-6

The Rams lose the division tiebreaker to the Niners based on a worse NFC record. The offense is loaded with Matthew Stafford behind a revamped line with high spending in free agency. The collective weapons are among the league’s best with Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, Kyren Williams and Blake Corum. The Rams will have one of the most balanced and dangerous offenses in the league.

The issue is defense, Aaron Donald can’t be replaced. Braden Fiske’s pass rush win rate at Florida State last year was an alarmingly low 8.9%, on a line with Jared Verse drawing all of the attention. When Fiske faced an OL with draftable talent in Miami he had two tackles and nothing else. I think the world of Verse but look at Fiske as a Combine warrior. If I’m right, that’s why 11-6, if I’m wrong the Rams will be a tough out.

6. Dallas 11-6

The Cowboys are built for the regular season, weapons to build a lead and the pass rush to close it out. The rush also feeds a ball-hawking secondary that can score or set up the offense in excellent field position. When that playmaking is taken away by a more physical team, Dallas loses matchups and the game. Which is why the Cowboys can’t break through. They aren’t constructed for playoff wins. They have one more year of easy mode and then Jerry Jones hires Bill Belichick or Ben Johnson to take over.

5. Green Bay 12-5

The NFL’s youngest team has arrived ahead of schedule behind Jordan Love. Weaknesses in the secondary have been patched up, particularly at safety with Xavier McKinney. Coverage problems at linebacker remain a concern as top pick Edgerrin Cooper is an excellent blitzer but gave up an 86.7% catch rate at A&M. This team will go as far as Love can take them, and he’s progressing at a rapid rate.

4. Atlanta 10-7

The days of the Falcons foolishly ignoring Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts are mercifully over and Atlanta will finally compete under Raheem Morris. Kirk Cousins will elevate the offense and should catapult the Falcons to the top of the division over Tampa Bay. The defense is among the league’s worst in sacks, hence Bralen Trice, but 32 arms and a 4.7 40 are red flags. Ruke Ohrororo is a great athlete but not a pass rusher with five sacks and a pass rush win rate under eight. Atlanta will need to close out high scoring games to make the playoffs, but can’t do post-season damage until the defense is built up.

3. 49ers 11-6

Some consider the 1 seed do or die, I don’t. The 49ers can still get rest in week 18 if the seed is locked in. Even if it isn’t, they can play the starters for a half against Arizona and then rest. In addition, this is a team that thrives in the post-season. They have the history and confidence to get to the conference championship. The 1 seed is undeniably the easiest path back to the Super Bowl, but it’s not the only path. The Niners will get their chance.

2. Philadelphia 12-5

Adding Saquon Barkley gives the offense balance. Losing Jason Kelce is a big blow, but the Eagles added playmakers they needed in the secondary in Quinyon Michell and Cooper DeJean. Vic Fangio is a necessary upgrade at defensive coordinator. Mad mugging head coach Nick Sirianni is on the hottest seat in the league, with Bill Belichick saying point blank he’d like to coach the Eagles next year. Can Philly get back to the Super Bowl without Kelce and with Lane Johnson near retirement? I like Cam Jurgens, but no. The defense is talented but too young for Fangio and the league knows how to stop Jalen Hurts, courtesy of the Niners.

1. Detroit 13-4

The Lions’ “Netflix and Chill” schedule is something I’ve never seen in over 50 years of following the NFL. They don’t even go outside until week 8 at Lambeau. Detroit only has three outdoor games all year: Green Bay, Chicago, and the Niners. Brock Purdy dreams of that schedule.

For a team built on speed that’s a huge advantage for Detroit. Four of their five regular season losses last year were outside. The lone indoor loss was to Dallas and that was ref-induced. A team that won 90% of their games indoors last year has 14 games inside this year. The schedule gods have been kind.

Detroit added D.J. Reader at defensive tackle and three new corners, including the top two run defending DBs in the draft. This year Jahmyr Gibbs becomes the feature back. Yes, Jared Goff can bring them back to Earth, but they have the best OL in the league, two great backs, and a vastly improved defense. Goff will not have to do nearly as much this year, increasing their chances. Will Dan Campbell learn from last year to take smarter risks and avoid unnecessary ones? The Super Bowl hangs in the balance.

Playoffs
7 LA Rams at 2 Philadelphia – Rams
6 Dallas at 3 San Francisco – 49ers
5 Green Bay at 4 Atlanta – Packers

7 LA Rams at 1 Detroit – Lions
5 Green Bay at 3 San Francisco – 49ers

3 San Francisco at 1 Detroit – Lions

Despite the 3 seed, the Niners host two playoff games and advance to the NFC Championship in Detroit. But it ends there. Detroit’s running game and upgraded defense control the clock and the game with the Lions advancing to their first Super Bowl.