Why the 2022 49ers Will Win the Super Bowl

The 49ers will win the Super Bowl this season even though they have a first-year starting quarterback who's 22.

Here's why:

Let's start with the defense. Last season, the 49ers gave up 5.1 yards per play -- fourth fewest in the NFL. It was an outstanding defense. This season, it should be even better, because the 49ers signed Charvarius Ward, one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL. He replaces Josh Norman, who's no longer in the league. Huge upgrade.

But clearly the 49ers won't win the Super Bowl with defense alone. The offense also must be better than last season. And now the 49ers have a new starting quarterback -- Trey Lance, who must be better than Jimmy Garoppolo. And lots of analysts expect Lance and the offense to struggle this season. Some even expect the 49ers to bench Lance.

I expect the offense will improve under Lance, and I have evidence to support this.

Last season, the 49ers averaged 6.0 yards per play -- second-best in the NFL behind the Kansas City Chiefs, who averaged 6.1 yards per play. But when Trey Lance was the 49ers quarterback, their offense averaged a whopping 6.4 yards per play -- which would have been No. 1 in the NFL by far last season.

There's more.

When Garoppolo was the quarterback in 2021, the 49ers averaged 4.2 yards per carry -- not great, considering the league average was 4.3. But when Lance was the quarterback, the 49ers averaged 5.1 yards per carry. No team averaged more than 5.1 yards per carry last season.

In the playoffs, the 49ers run game averaged just 3.7 yards per carry -- it got shut down, and the 49ers didn't make it back to the Super Bowl. Given how much better they ran the ball when Lance was quarterback, you could argue they would have won the Super Bowl last season if Lance had played in the playoffs.

This season, Lance should start all season. And with him and Charvarius Ward in the lineup, the 49ers legitimately could have the No. 1 offense and the No. 1 defense in the NFL. They're that good.

Their biggest weakness is pass protection, but the 49ers won't pass much, anyway. And when they do, they'll use play action and pocket movement and screens and all kinds of ways to slow down the rush.

My biggest question for this team is its cohesiveness. Will the veterans who love Jimmy Garoppolo like a brother continue to support Trey Lance if they lose a game or two early in the season? Or will they scapegoat him and insist on playing Garoppolo? Because if the 49ers prematurely pull the plug on Lance, they won't win the Super Bowl.

I predict the 49ers will let the kid play.

I predict they'll win the NFC West.

And I predict they'll beat the Buffalo Bills in the Super Bowl.