Will Trey Lance Have Over or Under 3,500.5 Passing Yards in 2022?

Trey Lance is one day away from making his full-time starting debut for the 49ers.

A lot of expectations have been set on Lance as he replaces four-year starter Jimmy Garoppolo. The offense of the 49ers gains a few new dynamics that should raise their ceiling.

One of those dynamics is the arm of Lance. The 49ers will finally have the capabilities of attacking more than 10 yards down the field vertically and outside the numbers to the sideline. This new dynamic should be felt thoroughly and benefit the offense. It also means that Lance could have some days with pretty enormous passing yards, especially if he’s clicking.

DraftKings sportsbook has set the over/under at 3,500.5 passing yards for Lance this season. A bit of a conservative number here, but considering Lance is still green, there could be inconsistencies that linger throughout the season. Plus, Kyle Shanahan wants to run the football first and foremost, which can cap the passing yards of Lance.

Will Lance have over or under 3,500.5 passing yards?

I’m taking the over WITHOUT hesitation. Look, I get why DraftKings took a conservative number here. Lance is an unknown to so many people and that scares them. The unknown in football, or sports in general, gives people anxiety and skepticism. It’s a large part in why Lance has haters/critics.

But there should be ZERO cause for concern with Lance eclipsing 3,500 passing yards.

In fact, I’m confident he’ll amass just over 4,000 yards. The two healthiest seasons that Garoppolo managed were 2019 and 2021. He threw for 3,978 in ‘19 and 3,810 in ‘21 despite missing 2 games and a half. Garoppolo managed that in an offense that is already run-heavy and without throwing much past 10 or 15 yards.

Lance won’t have that limitation that Garoppolo has and can sling it past that with ease. Not to mention that play-action and bootleg passes should become a staple in the offense again, which will give Lance layup throws for chunk plays. There is really no case to be made here or considered for why Lance won’t go over 3,500 passing yards. Barring health, it is a lock that he goes over.

Where do you think Lance will finish on this over/under for passing yards?

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