Will the 49ers Go Into Purdatory?

The next three to five years will be defined by the decisions made this off-season.

Brock Purdy wants to be the highest paid quarterback in football according to EPSN’s Tom
Pellisero. He reports that Purdy and his agent are seeking “top of the quarterback market
money” and will not accept top-10 QB money, which is about $50 million per year.

Will the 49ers meet Purdy’s demands to be paid over $60 million per year?

The Athletic’s Dianna Russini reports that the organization believes “Brock Purdy is our
quarterback” and they plan to sign him to a multi-year extension this off-season. She also notes
that Kyle Shanahan has the full backing of ownership to lead the team forward and is not on the
hot seat.

Can the organization extend Purdy at market value, keep Shanahan as the holy trinity of the
team (offensive coordinator, head coach, and defacto GM with personnel control), and win a
Super Bowl?

In my opinion, no. I think the Niners would enter no man’s land, what I’m calling Purdatory.
Good enough to be in the playoff mix but ringless.

On Purdy. Given his struggles with the deep ball against the Rams I doubt he’s fully healthy.
Adding arm strength is a must, but is he topped out? After leaving Iowa State, Purdy tweaked
his mechanics to produce extra velocity, primarily through more hip torque. If he has any
velocity magic left, he’ll need to find it in the off-season.

Purdy’s poor performance in the rain can’t be swept under the tarp. Seattle, Green Bay,
Philadelphia, and Washington have wet outdoor venues. Add Santa Clara in the winter. The
49ers will likely face playoff games in the rain, Purdy has to overcome this.

My greatest concern is that Purdy is not learning from his mistakes. The pick against the Rams
mirrors an early season interception. The career-long pattern of panicking when pursued and
throwing the ball into coverage for an interception needs to be broken.

Purdy has to learn the value of throwing the ball away. Jimmy Garoppolo refused to do it, in my
opinion to protect his stats. I don’t accuse Purdy of that, I think he’s just placing too much trust
in himself and his teammates. Far better to throw it away than give it away.

Purdy has a record of 21-6 when playing with peak Christian McCaffrey. Purdy is .500 in his last
18 games without peak CMC. The realistic expectation is Purdy can lead the 49ers to the
playoffs, but he’s not good enough to carry a lesser team to a ring after he’s been paid. Purdy
isn’t the problem but he’s also not the answer. His physical ceiling has to be factored in, along
with the inherent injury risk of his smaller frame.

Critics oppose extending Purdy and ask for another season to evaluate him. The Yorks have
been consistent in wanting to take care of Purdy this off-season. I think their reasoning is clear
but never brought up, they see Purdy as the face of the franchise going forward.

George Kittle is 31, McCaffrey is 29, it’s time. Purdy comes out of central casting, he’s young,
and has a great story. The organization knows Purdy has been the best bargain in sports, they’ll
take care of him.

Whatever Purdy gets will need to be subtracted from the rest of the roster in three seasons
when his full salary hits the cap. Can the 49ers still contend? Purdy’s 9-9 record without peak
CMC would argue no.

Purdatory isn’t just about Brock, it’s also about Shanahan being given absolute power. He
should have been stripped of personnel control after the Trey Lance trade failed. Instead, the
Yorks continue to rely on the two-headed GM of Shanahan and John Lynch, where
accountability can be evaded, and blueprint problems go unaddressed.

Can the 49ers evade Purdatory?

In my opinion, yes. It requires courage from the Yorks though. I’m not talking about firing
Shanahan as coach or offensive coordinator. I fire Shanahan the defacto GM.

The best way to help Purdy is a serious upgrade for the offensive line. Shanahan’s blueprint
goes against that, he scrimps on the OL to the right of Trent Williams to save on the cap. He
then compounds that by not using high draft picks on the OL consistently.

As Shanahan says he values players that touch the ball or rush the passer, and his drafts reflect
that, an overinvestment in weapons and defensive linemen, an underinvestment in OL. Alex
Gibbs the father of the wide zone emphasizes the scheme just needs dogs, not long-armed first
round tackles. Shanahan takes that to heart.

Defenders can point to Dominic Puni, critics can point to the lack of OL picks, one first rounder
and two second rounders in eight years. Keep Shanahan as defacto GM and that likely
continues.

Both Super Bowl losses to Kansas City were aided by mismatches on the right side of the line
with Chris Jones as the tip of the spear. Garoppolo 1-9 against pressure with a pick. Purdy
struggling against nine unblocked pass rushers on blitzes.

So why Purdatory? In part this. Shanahan’s offensive line blueprint won’t optimize Purdy. The
investment will be made in Purdy but not backed up. Just as Shanahan drafted two receivers
and then barely played them, the lack of strategic coherence is a serious problem on this team.

The Niners have to let go of Deebo Samuel and Kyle Juszczyk, can Shanahan do it? I have my
doubts. Hiring an outside GM would be a way of saving Shanahan from himself.

I would hire Ray Agnew, Detroit’s Assistant General Manager, learning from the last four years
under the league’s best talent evaluator Brad Holmes. The 49ers need better talent evaluation
and they need to nail this upcoming draft with higher picks than the norm. They’re failed often
at defensive line and that’s where the first two rounds may land.

Will the Yorks replace Shanahan as GM, I seriously doubt it.

Next time: The 49ers rebuild in free agency.

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