Albert Breer’s Mailbag: What Trade Compensation for A.J. Brown Would Look Like

If the Eagles do move their receiver, here’s what they’d want in return. Plus, answering your questions on Ty Simpson, possible trades and more.

A.J. Brown has been the subject of trade talk all offseason. | Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

Jump to a topic

1. A.J. Brown 
2. Ty Simpson 
3. Jadarian Price
4. Kansas City Chiefs 
5. Top edge rushers 
6. New York Jets 
7. New York Giants 
8. Rueben Bain Jr.
9. Detroit Lions 
10. Trade talks 
11. Cincinnati Bengals 

We are eight days out from the NFL draft. You all wrote in a lot of good questions and I answered as many as possible, here, in the last mailbag before draft night (though another video mailbag on our YouTube channel) …

A.J. Brown 

From Ben (@samuelslim2): It’s clear the A.J. Brown trade is happening, have an idea on compensation?

Ben, I’d start with the baseline: the Davante Adams and Quinnen Williams trades were comps the Eagles used to base their ask for a first- and a second-round pick on. Because it just happened, Williams is an interesting one to look at. He was in the same draft class as Brown, is six months younger, is similarly under a reasonable contract, and the Jets landed a 2026 second-round pick and ’27 first-round pick for him.

Conversely, the trade comp I heard other teams use was the 2023 Stefon Diggs deal, when the Bills sent Diggs, a 2024 sixth-round pick and a ’25 fifth-rounder to Houston for a ’24 second-round pick. Which, obviously, is a substantially lower price than Williams went for. 

My guess would be Brown lands somewhere in between if he’s sent, as a lot of people seem to be anticipating, from the Eagles to the Patriots. Maybe it would be a 2028 first-round pick (Howie Roseman has taken picks years off before, with Haason Reddick being an example), or a conditional 2027 second-rounder that could become a first-rounder if Brown hits playing time benchmarks (one of the picks in the Cason Wentz deal between the Eagles and Colts had such a condition).

In the end, it’ll take some creativity. I don’t see Roseman coming out of this looking like he lost the deal, because I do believe he’d rather not do a deal than complete a bad one.

Ty Simpson 

From Charles Boswell (@plubard): Any hints from either the Jets’ or Cardinals’ camps about whether they might trade back into the first round for Ty Simpson?

Not really, Charles, but I guess that’s not impossible.

If I were them, though, and I like Simpson, I’d probably take him in the second round. I get the logic of wanting the fifth-year option. But, there’s a nuance in taking a player in the second round that’s important—it doesn’t take you off the market to pick a quarterback the next year.

I have examples. The Browns took DeShone Kizer with the 52nd pick in 2017, then came back and drafted Baker Mayfield No. 1 in ’18. The Panthers took Jimmy Clausen 48th in 2010, and then Cam Newton No. 1 in ’11. The Dolphins spent second-round picks on quarterbacks in three consecutive years, taking John Beck in 2007, Chad Henne in ’08 and Pat White in ’09.

The bottom line is that if you take a quarterback in the second round, you’re keeping your options open for the following year. If you take one in the first round, with rare exceptions (Josh Rosen and Kyler Murray in Arizona, which only happened with a coaching change), that’s your guy, and you’re moving forward with him for at least two or three years.  So if I liked, but didn’t love, Simpson, I’d only consider him after the first round.

Jadarian Price is a highly touted prospect despite not being the top back on his team at Notre Dame. | MICHAEL CLUBB/SOUTH BEND TRIBUNE / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Jadarian Price

From Andrew (@freedog428): Who’s the surprise player you think goes in the first round that no one is talking about?

I don’t know that there’ll be many surprises, Andrew. There are a lot of variables with what I consider a “flat draft,” where the difference between the guy who goes 25th and the guy who goes 75th may not be that big. But I’ll play the game …

I think it’s possible that Jadarian Price, Jeremiyah Love’s backup at Notre Dame, has an outside shot to sneak in the bottom of the round, on the premise that there is a big dropoff after the two Irish backs go. In other words, if you have a need at the position, you may view Price as your last chance to get a ready-made starter in this year’s class, so you may push him up the board a little bit.

Another player who’s gotten a lot of love from the people I’ve talked to is Texas Tech linebacker Jacob Rodriguez. He’s a little small and not a dynamic athlete, but he checks a ton of boxes otherwise. He’s smart, instinctive, makes plays in the run game, is good in coverage and projects to be a team captain down the line.

A third name is San Diego State’s Chris Johnson. The first two corners off the board will almost certainly be LSU’s Mansoor Delane and Tennessee’s Jermod McCoy (though concerns with McCoy’s knee have been heightened for some teams after their doctors got a look at it). After that, the consensus is you’ll have Tennessee’s Colton Hood, Clemson’s Avieon Terrell and South Carolina’s Brandon Cisse. And I think Johnson’s wedged himself into that tier, as a gritty, tough, high-character, do-it-all type with inside-outside flexibility.

Kansas City Chiefs 

From kcchiefsjunky (@kcchiefsjunky): Thoughts on KC standing pat with No. 9 but making a big move up from No. 29 and No. 40? Targeting someone in the teens … try to land two instant impact players with their first two picks.

I don’t think they’ll take too big a swing. But the Chiefs have nine picks, including three fifth-rounders, and that should give them some flexibility. What GM Brett Veach did to get Xavier Worthy in 2024 can be instructive when diving into how he might operate this time around if there’s a short move up to be made. In that case, the Chiefs jumped four spots, moving the 32nd, 133rd and 248th picks for the 28th, 95th and 221st picks.

The key there? Veach didn’t lose any capital. He moved one pick down 38 slots, and another down 27 slots to land Worthy. And so he could do something similar this time around with all the Day 3 capital that he’s working with.

I think at No. 9, you’re looking at corner, receiver and edge as possibilities, with the need to backstop the tackle position at some point in the draft.  Also, the idea of taking Oregon’s Kenyon Sadiq at the very least is a consideration. So let’s say, for example, they take Delane at nine, and they like Clemson’s Blake Miller as a right tackle prospect, but the pool of seven expected first-round tackles starts to run dry in the mid-20s. That’s a scenario where maybe you see Veach and Andy Reid make a move.

Top edge rushers 

From Carl Spackler (@BushwoodCap): Will Zion Young be a first-round pick?  If not, what separates the edges that go in front of him?

Carl, it’s an interesting question. I think the edge rushers break down like this: 

• Texas Tech’s David Bailey and Ohio State hybrid Arvell Reese will both likely be off the board within the first four picks.

• The Miami guys, Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor, will probably be next, with Bain going in the top 15 or so, and Mesidor likely gone within the top 20 picks.

• Then, you have a group of guys that includes Missouri’s Zion Young, Auburn’s Keldric Faulk, Texas A&M’s Cashius Howell, Oklahoma’s R Mason Thomas and Clemson’s T.J. Parker.

In that last group, I think it comes down to what exactly you’re looking for. Howell and Thomas are smaller rushers that bring a lot of juice off the edge, but there’s some concern on how they’ll project in your base defense and hold up against the run. Then, you have Faulk and Young, who are bigger, longer, sturdier base ends, who don’t have that same sort of pass-rush value, needing more development in that area. Parker’s closer to a combination of the two, but had a disappointing season in 2025 after a big ’24.

So it comes down to what flaws you’re comfortable with, and who you think will be able to develop in the area where that flaw exists.

New York Jets 

From Jg (@jgima94): Bailey vs. Reese at No. 2. You said the Jets need to win a few games to help Glenn keep his job so take Bailey. Why does this matter? No Jets fan is expecting .500 or close to it this year and shouldn’t a team devoid of blue chip players simply take the higher ceiling guy?

JG, I think it does matter.  This has to do with job security, yes, but also, Aaron Glenn and his staff have a shot to develop some semblance of hope for a locker room that needs it after last year.

Just look at the way the season ended. They lost five in a row, and capped their 3–14 year with a blowout loss to the Bills’ backups. Two of the team’s very best players, Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner, were traded in midseason. Twelve assistant coaches were fired in waves over the course of January.

Now, Glenn did a good job of keeping everyone bought in through all of that upheaval. But you can only sell a concept for so long without real proof it’s working. Yes, the Jets have five first-round picks over the next two years, and there’s a lot to be excited about there. But trust me when I tell you that players don’t care about any three-year plan. They want to know what’s being done to help them succeed individually and as a team right now, because most of them have no idea if they’re going to be around for the payoff.

A player like Bailey, who can produce out of the box, doesn’t just give you a better chance to win right away; he also can help you show your locker room that progress is being made. I made the comment to a couple of people that the way scouts talk about Bailey reminds me a little of how people discussed Aidan Hutchinson in 2022—when Glenn was part of the staff that took him No. 2. And what Hutchinson has become compared to what Travon Walker, who went No. 1, has become is another factor that could inform their call.

New York Giants 

From Mason who is back from Venezuela (@NYGMason): Kayvon Thibodeaux—will he be a Giant after the draft, or will he be traded?

Mason, I’m just not sure the Giants will be able to get great value for him. 

Here’s the reality: He’s in a contract year, and has missed far more games (12) than he’s had sacks (8) over the past two years, after a breakout second season through which he had 11.5 sacks. The athletic potential is still there, but how much does that mean to another team? What would push you to give him up? Maybe a third-round pick? And if I’m the Giants, I might do it for that, as they don’t have a third right now.

But the other way of looking at this is that the Giants would be giving up on a guy they drafted with the fifth pick, who could have a breakout year and bring home a compensatory third-rounder after the season if he does. So, again, I don’t know that someone’s going to bring enough to the table to make it worth it for the Giants to take Thibodeaux out of what could be a fearsome rotation with Brian Burns and Abdul Carter, if Carter’s able to break through in Year 2.

Rueben Bain Jr.

From ZachLaymansNFL (@ZachLaymansNFL): What teams have taken Rueben Bain Jr. off their boards over the accident being reported about?

Zach, I don’t think it’s a high number of teams. We covered this in my Monday and Tuesday columns. I actually think more teams would take him out of consideration due to the arm-length question than because of the 2024 fatal car crash. Obviously, the accident was tragic, and I’m saying that with all due respect to Destiny Betts and her family. I do think most teams, though, have a comfort level with the facts, since they’ve all known about them for a while.

Offensive line has been a core part of the identity Dan Campbell has built in Detroit. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Detroit Lions 

From DLFP (@DLFPtweets): Hey Albert, with the Lions only having picks at 17 and 50 in the top 100, what players do you expect Detroit to have real interest in or target at those spots? Also, are you hearing anything specific on the Lions right now?

Yeah, DLFP, I’d say only having two picks in the top 100 can affect a team, in that it may lock you into specific needs more, knowing that by the time you get to Day 3 it may be harder to find someone who can fill them. Along those lines, I’d be surprised if the Lions don’t take at least one offensive lineman with those two picks.

That position group has played a big role in setting the team’s identity over the five years that Dan Campbell and Brad Holmes have been there, and the losses of Taylor Decker and Frank Ragnow, two guys inherited from previous regimes who became foundational to the build, are still being felt. Which is why the Lions potentially taking Monroe Freeling or Kadyn Proctor at No. 17 makes perfect sense.

Trade talks 

From Paul Andrew Esden Jr (@BoyGreen25): Can you walk us through what the next week and change looks like? Are the frameworks of trades being hammered out before the draft during this window? That seems especially important with the first round being reduced to eight minutes per pick.

Paul, a lot of conceptual conversations are happening. Teams do dozens of mock draft simulations based on what their top guys and their scouts have heard across the NFL to get a better feel for different scenarios. As part of that process, if there’s a guy a team is targeting, that they might not be able to land where they’re picking, they’ll start talking with teams ahead of them, on what it might take to move up into those slots.

From there, you have a baseline, so when you get on the clock, you’re not starting from scratch (though there are examples where curveballs are thrown on draft night, and teams are starting from zero on certain in-the-moment trades).

Cincinnati Bengals 

From Damon Martin (@DamonMartin): We all know the Bengals are never going to trade up so is the No. 10 pick basically just best defensive player available? Caleb Downs remains a dream pick but it's hard to gauge what the team is thinking.

Damon, my guess is that No. 10 is close to being the floor for Downs. I don’t say that unequivocally because I think Bain could be in play for them, as well as the top two corners (again, depending on what they think of McCoy’s knee). I’d also throw Proctor in there as a wild-card name I’ve heard for Cincinnati.

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