Albert Breer’s Mailbag: Why Detroit Won’t Draft Jared Goff’s Replacement

You had plenty of NFL draft questions, and, as always, I had some answers …

Detroit Lions

From C (@taydyl33): Any chance the Lions get Drew Allar in the second round and sit him for two years behind Goff?

C, I’m always an advocate for putting quarterbacks in the pipeline, but I think, in this case, Detroit can’t do it. There are two reasons why.

The first is relatively simple. Last year, the Lions traded both of their 2026 third-round picks in an aggressive move in last year’s third round to get receiver Isaac TeSlaa. As a result of losing their slotted pick and the pick they got for losing Aaron Glenn to the Jets, they now have only two picks in the top 100. So taking a swing on a developmental quarterback seems way more likely on Day 3, where they have multiple picks in the fourth, fifth and sixth rounds.

Second, they’re at a point now where their roster is going to get top-heavy financially. Jared Goff has a market quarterback deal, and Penei Sewell, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Aidan Hutchinson, Alim McNeill and Kerby Joseph are already on big second deals, and 2023 draftees Jahmyr Gibbs, Sam LaPorta, Brian Branch and Jack Campbell are now eligible for new contracts. And the champagne problem is that the looming bottleneck of contracts means having to find cheap talent through the draft to fill in around your core.

The Lions, for example, have work to do on the offensive line, a unit that was the foundation of the Brad Holmes/Dan Campbell rebuild. With only those two picks in the top 100, and shrinking cap space, it’d stand to reason resources should go there, rather than to find a developmental quarterback. So if the swing on Drew Allar—who is probably an early Day 3 pick anyway—comes in the fourth or fifth round? Good. At 50th, I’d be surprised.

From doug mccready (@dgmccready): Are the Lions depending too much on the draft and their ability to coach up young players instead of making a splash in free agency?

Doug, there aren’t many teams that wouldn’t trade for the Lions’ core: Goff, Gibbs, Jamo, St. Brown, LaPorta, Sewell, Hutchinson, McNeill, Campbell and Branch. This is how good teams do it. Could they make a move or two and mortgage some contracts to accomplish that? Sure. But I’d say on balance, it’s still a really good team, and, contrary to popular opinion, the window hasn’t closed on those guys.

Carolina Panthers

From Milly Mills (@ShopChopa): Expectations for the Panthers’ 2026 season?

Shop, I’d say it’s fair to expect continued improvement, and that they’ll be there in the fight to repeat as NFC South champions of what should be an improved division.

Obviously, at the center of their effort will be Bryce Young. My guess would be they’ll let Young play out the fourth year of his deal, with his fifth-year option picked up for the 2027 offseason. And we’ll see if he can find another level in his game that would justify working out a monster contract extension to keep him in Charlotte long-term.

Elsewhere on the roster, there’s reason for optimism. Tetairoa McMillan looks like a star in the making at receiver, the offensive line (which will have to manage left tackle Ickey Ekwonu’s absence for some percentage of the season) got better last year, and the defense has a good young core and an infusion of top-end veteran talent coming, with Jaelan Phillips and Devin Lloyd’s arrival. Which is to say, outside of QB, the arrow’s pointing up.

So, again, I’d say continued improvement, and maybe a playoff win, would be a fair target.

Dallas Cowboys

From Flanny (@FlannyForReal): Which edges and corners, along with Sonny Styles and [Caleb] Downs, need to be gone for Dallas to consider a trade down?

Flanny, I’d say trading down will be challenging in the top half of the first round. My assumption is that the Raiders take Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza with the first pick. After that, there’s not a quarterback to provoke a trade up, or a prototype at a premium position (i.e., Myles Garrett at edge, Jalen Ramsey at corner, Julio Jones at receiver, Joe Alt at tackle) that could entice someone to get aggressive.

So even if the Cowboys wanted to move down from 12, I think it would take a run on a position to create a market for the pick. Maybe someone looks at LSU’s Mansoor Delane and sees the rest of the corner class as being a step down from that (though Tennessee’s Jermod McCoy might be right there) and wants to go get him? I don’t know. It’s hard to envision a real scenario like that right now, but I might feel differently in a couple of weeks.

Top 10 picks

From Dan (@VaultGamingYT): Any surprises you think will happen in the top 10 of the draft?

Dan, I think the top of the draft will be full of surprises, mostly because of the dynamic that I just outlined—without slam-dunk premium-position prospects, you’re weighing guys at premium positions that you have to project vs. guys at non-premium positions (Jeremiyah Love, Caleb Downs, Sonny Styles) that are elite. And how teams weigh that equation, I believe, will vary, and lead to a lot of volatility early in the draft.

Which might not be great for the teams picking in the top 10, but it is from an entertainment standpoint.

Philadelphia Eagles/New England Patriots

From Steve Mac (@stevemicmac): If the Eagles want to wait until after June 1 for cap reasons, could New England pick the Eagles’ preferred target, hold onto him for a month, and then execute the trade for A.J. Brown in June to satisfy both the draft capital and salary cap requirements?

Steve, I do understand what you’re saying—this is how it works in the NBA. I just think it’d be very, very difficult to pull off.

Let’s just say, for example, that you are the rookie the Patriots are essentially drafting for the Eagles. Now, to go along with this, you’re losing rookie onboarding that happens after the draft, your rookie minicamp, then two to three weeks of OTAs. That would then affect your shot to perform over the two weeks left in the offseason program in June, which is where you set yourself up to compete for playing time in the summer, and ultimately to play in the fall.

Why would that rookie be O.K. with that? It’d be a headache all the way around, and not fair to that player. So, to me, if a trade happens, it’s most likely post-June 1, with 2027 picks.

It is worth noting that Mike Vrabel has been in this situation before. In 2021, the Falcons waited until after June 1 to trade Julio Jones, and it was his Titans that wound up getting him, dealing a 2022 second-round pick and a ’23 fourth-rounder to Atlanta for Jones and a ’23 sixth-rounder. At this point, Vrabel’s Patriots stand as the only known suitor for Brown, with his other preferred AFC destinations (Chargers, Chiefs, Bills) having said no, and the Rams having bowed out.

We’ll see how motivated Eagles GM Howie Roseman is to do a deal post-June 1. But it’d be tough to get one agreed to in advance because of all the moving parts over the 10 weeks leading up to then.

Miami Dolphins

From Mike Madden (@Mike__Madden): If the Dolphins get the first pick is Jeremiah Smith a lock for Miami?

Mike, the only way I see it is if there’s not a quarterback worth trading up for at 1, and if the Dolphins feel their future is secure with Malik Willis at quarterback, enough so they don't take one there after a season that put them first in the draft order.

Not likely. But if Willis plays well, the rest of the team stinks, and the Dolphins get the fourth pick, with three quarterbacks going 1-2-3, then maybe Smith goes home.

We’ll see. I would say he’s the top nonquarterback in the class, as it stands now.

Kansas City Chiefs

From ZmoneyKSU (@GuitarCatsChief): Does Justin Fields start any games for the Chiefs? Do they find a role for him once Mahomes is back or is he strictly a clipboard holder?

Zmoney, I view the Chiefs/Justin Fields marriage as a great business arrangement. He gives Kansas City depth and an experienced stand-in with real upside for Andy Reid to mine. The Chiefs give him a year of development and the shot to take starter reps in a championship program through the spring and summer, while Patrick Mahomes rehabs his knee injury.

I’d bet on Mahomes getting back for Week 1, so that’d make the likelihood that Fields is spending the 2026 season entirely as a backup, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing.

U.S. flag football team

From Hrvoje Bulić (@BulljiveU): Hi Bert! How do you think the U.S. flag football team for 2028 will be chosen? NFL stars can’t just waltz in and dominate without specific flag training, but will the teams be O.K. with them spending the summer getting ready for the Olympics?

Hrvoji, great question, and I don’t know. If they picked the best players to win the competition right now, I think Saturday showed us who those guys would be. Could the NFL players, with months to prepare, adapt their freakish athleticism to challenge the flag players for those spots? I think that’s possible. But as you said, taking time away from your team, or training to play a different sport entirely, might not be what’s best for those guys’ careers.

Then, there’s what their teams have to say about it, which could vary from team to team.

There’s still a lot to be sorted out. But NFL owners are investing in making this work as part of their plan to continue to globalize the game, so it wouldn’t surprise me if you see some teams forced to compromise a bit, if the owners think it’s in the league’s best interest from a business standpoint (and getting the biggest NFL stars possible into the 2028 Olympics is clearly what would serve their business interests here).

George Pickens

From jcm (@JCM_____): With the nonexclusive tag, Dallas is allowing George Pickens to negotiate contract details with other teams. How is that going so far?

JCM, I’d be stunned if anyone was willing to give up two first-rounders and a monster contract for Pickens. So, I wouldn’t count on much on that front.

2027 NFL draft

From Greg Creese (@AquaCoralRep): How reluctant do you think teams will be in parting with 2027 draft picks when trying to move in this year’s draft?

Greg, teams look at picks a year into the future as being devalued by a round, because you’re losing a year of service by dealing those picks away. In other words, if you traded a 2026 third-rounder at this point last year, then it would be seen by most GMs as a fourth-round value.

And maybe that’s the best way to encapsulate how teams are viewing next year’s draft—at least for the first couple of rounds, I don’t think 2027 picks are being naturally devalued that way. Between Smith at Ohio State, edge rushers Collin Simmons and Dylan Stewart at Texas and South Carolina, corner Leonard Moore at Notre Dame, plus all the quarterbacks and so on and so forth, there’s good reason for that.

Pittsburgh Steelers

From Seth H. (@Seth_HH_): What could possibly be the strategic advantage for the Steelers not saying what the QB plan is? Could they be deliberately withholding information to gain some advantage? Or is this simply that the Steelers are really THAT desperate for Rodgers?

No, I think it’s just respecting Aaron Rodgers’s decision-making process, and knowing there are options out there like Kirk Cousins if it doesn’t work out. Nothing more. Nothing less.

C.J. Stroud

From Nyambose (@Nyambose215270): Which QB is under the most pressure right now?

I’d say C.J. Stroud, just because he’s had a two-year downturn after an incredible rookie year, and that Texans team is loaded everywhere, and very ready to compete for a championship. If Houston decides to wait on doing a second contract with him, then the pressure’s only turned up another notch.

All that’s part of the territory, though, when you’ve shown the potential that Stroud has.

Ty Simpson vs. Fernando Mendoza

From AJ Goncalves (@AJISDAWAY): Do GMs really believe Ty Simpson is better than Fernando Mendoza?

AJ, you’re going to have to give me a couple of weeks to have a definitive answer on that, but I’d say most people I’ve talked to view it as Fernando Mendoza and then everyone else at the quarterback position in this year’s draft class. I, of course, very much respect and like Dan Orlovsky, who forgot more about the quarterback going to sleep last night than I know. And that’s why I’m excited to dig more into this topic over the next few weeks.

Los Angeles Rams

From Zach Fogelman (@FogelmanZach): Do you see the Rams making a move for a WR3 outside of the draft?

Zach, I could see them bringing in a veteran, yes. But what might be more likely is having a mid-round pick added at the position, since any sort of depth issue at receiver is mitigated by the depth they have at tight end. I don’t see where they’re at with a third receiver behind Puka Nacua and Davante Adams as a big problem for them.

Salary cap

From Geoffrey (@frizzaud): Do you believe the NFL will shift to a different salary cap structure to alleviate QBs taking up so much of the cap, such as the QB being a max % of the cap and the teams being able to pay QBs more cash after?

Geoffrey, no. I think they like the way it is now because it balances the teams with elite quarterback play against the rest of the league. And the cap has risen to the point where these things are now all manageable.

Olaivavega Ioane

From Daily Dolphins Draft (@JAYFIEDLERSTAN): What do you think is the floor and ceiling for Vega Ioane in the draft, and could you see him as a good fit for the Dolphins?