Bear Digest

Key number suggests Ben Johnson bit off more than he can chew

The most telling analytic football number, according to Bears coach Ben Johnson, says something very specific about Caleb Williams' chances to succeed.
Gene Chamberlain|
Caleb Williams had a horrific EPA last year, a stat Ben Johnson said was key to determining wins. Can Johnson do somthing to alter it?
Caleb Williams had a horrific EPA last year, a stat Ben Johnson said was key to determining wins. Can Johnson do somthing to alter it? | Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

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Chicago Bears

It's a number Ben Johnson probably invited upon himself with his insistence about expected points added being more important to determining who wins a game than turnovers are.

The number is 733.

EPA, Johnson famously said at this year's owners meetings, is the new most important determiner for who wins games.

"The way I understand it right now from our analytics team, the EPA in the passing game is really one of the most critical factors in determining wins and losses right now," he said.

The Athletic's Josh Kendall this week wrote up the website's power rankings for the start of camps and has the Bears ranked 21st overall, which is definitely not surprising because of Johnson's rookie coach status. However, the bigger factor in that is quarterback Caleb Williams.

Kendall points out Williams didn't exactly put up the best numbers even if he did have 20 touchdown passes and only six interceptions.

"Williams took 68 sacks last season, the second most of any quarterback since at least 2000," Kendall Wrote. "His EPA per dropback ranked 733rd out of all qualifying quarterbacks since 2000."

733rd—that's an incredibly bad ranking even if it is over a quarter century of football. At 32 starters a year for 25 years with two starters less in 2000 and 2001, that comes to 796 starting NFL QBs.

When Johnson was hired, he was asked how much he took quarterback into account when he decided where he wanted to be a head coach.

"Having a quarterback helps," Johnson said then.

Is this a case of be careful what you wish for?

Johnson's Lions with Jared Goff as quarterback were third in EPA last year.

The onus is on Johnson to do an awful lot of elevating with his new project.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.