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Bears and Falcons Fantasy, Betting Outlook

Justin Fields might be the hottest thing in fantasy football and there are other options to look at in this game, as well.

The only team in NFL history to run for 225 yards five straight games tries to become the only one to do it six straight games on Sunday.

More accurately, the Bears simply would like to become a team that has won two of its last eight games.

While they have piled up prodigious rushing statistics through Justin Fields' success, the Bears have done little for fantasy owners aside from those who had Cole Kmet and were still using him in the lineup last week. A stretch of five TD catches in three games definitely takes a season on a different course in fantasy football.

What the Bears and some fantasy owners would also like is for the offense to expand and Justin Fields to throw more passes downfield. If they were in the direction of Darnell Mooney and Chase Claypool, it would no doubt please some fantasy owners.

Claypool's season degenerated into stats like a normal tight end would have after the Steelers moved him to tight end.

If an expansion of the passing attack doesn't occur this week, there may never be one considering the Bears face the league's worst pass defense.

Some fantasy owners would no doubt be pleased to see a return to normalcy, at least for David Montgomery.

The Bears running back has struggled average-wise since an ankle injury in Week 2 and has split carries on almost a 50-50 basis with Khalil Herbert. But Herbert's injury could mean Montgomery in a role like he used to have, where he gets 20 to 25 carries.

In fact, SI fantasy expert Michael Fabiano is expecting as much and pointing it out to readers this week.

It's good advice, but whether Montgomery's yardage reaches figures close to what he had been gaining in the early season seems to be a real question even if he does get more carries.

The Bears will have yet a different starting offensive line this week and there may finally be an emphasis on passing considering they are playing the team with the worst pass defense in the NFL.

Fantasy Football Outlook

Start 'Em

1. Bears QB Justin Fields

Only Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen rate higher than Fields on this week's Top 10 fantasy QBs by SI's Fabiano. After two straight weeks of hype and huge, historic rushing totals, you have to think Atlanta would be contructing some type of QB net to stop scrambling. Any such plan will leave them susceptible to Fields' passing, though.

2. Bears RB David Montgomery

There can be no doubt Montgomery was more comfortable and ran more effectively when he was unquestionably "the man," when it came to their backfield. He is again, due to injury. Expect him to perform like he has when counted on in the past.

Perhaps they'll even throw to him again. In the past he averaged 2.75 receptions per game and this year 1.67. He has five receptions in the last five games.

3. Falcons RB Tyler Allgeiere

He has only one TD rushing on the year but if there is a team he should be expected to burn in the red zone it's the Bears. He has also been more effective against non-divisional teams as division teams have held him to 34.6 yards a game and divisional 56.5. Allgeiere is their leading rusher, after Cordarreelle Patterson struggled after an injury.

4. Falcons WR Drake London

Their rookie is making plenty of catches, but not getting huge yards-after-catch numbers. He has 38 catches but only one TD since Week 2. The struggling Bears defense should struggle to get all the weapons Atlanta has covered and London should be able to command only single DBs.

5. Falcons RB Cordarrelle Patterson

While it won't be like in his Chicago days because he could be watching all return, he'll still have a big role splitting backfield time with Allgeiere. The Bears one-gap defensive front could be a high-risk, high-reward against Patterson. They could divert him sideway and prevent many big runs but get gashed on occasion for huge runs.

6. Bears WR Darnell Mooney

It's been rare when Mooney has been completely silent but he isn't getting into the end zone and the Bears need to see this more. Expect a break-out game from him because he's facing coverage from corners who are no better than what he sees on a daily basis in practice after being the focal point of coverages on a weekly basis.

7. Falcons QB Marcus Mariota

He only has accounted for three fewer passing/rushing TDs on the year than Fields, so maybe he's a bit more valuable to fantasy types than they would want to admit. He's just not the flavor of the week like Fields is for the fantasy types. In fact, Mariota's entire career seems to have been spent in this zone where he is underappreciated for what his skills offer.

8. Bears TE Cole Kmet

Right now he's hot with five TD catches in three games. The Bear should press the advantage they're getting with him off play-action.

9. Falcons TE Kyle Pitts

The combination of either Jaquan Brisker, Eddie Jackson or Nicholas Morrow (4.52 speed) covering Pitts might make him less of an inviting target for

Sit 'Em

10. Bears WR Chase Claypool

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We'll need some proof now before he gets a stamped send-off. They not only didn't get him the ball enough, he didn't even get on the field enough. Placing him back in the lineup is just too much risk for fantasy owners when he isn't being used by the Bears.

11. WR Olamide Zaccheaus

The return of Al-Quadin Muhammad could help end the lack of edge pressure the Bears suffered last week. It would mean less time for Mariota to run through his progression and find Zaccheaus, who seems to know how to get open. Also, the Bears have talked about blitzing more again, and this will limit time for finding secondary targets, as well. The other thing about Zaccheaus ever being counted on is the Falcons always seem to have an endless supply of secondary targets stepping up to make plays and take away targets from him, like former Bear Damiere Byrd or KhaDarel Hodge.

Defense

Two of the worst examples of team defense in the NFL this year so no, a fantasy owner with team defense in standard leagues won't consider either of these two.

In an IDP League it might be useful to count on Grady Jarrett for something. The Falcons defensive tackle had a sack last time he faced the Bears, and played a big role in a game Chicago eventually pulled out.

Best Bears Bets

The Spread and Total

The Line: Falcons by 3. Over/under 48 1/2.

BearDigest Record: 7-3, 4-6 ATS.

BearDigest Pick: Bears 30, Falcons 28.

Prop Picks: They keep posting low rushing totals on Fields and he keeps obliterating them so unless the prop total is around 100 yards it's safety to stay over on it. Also, he has gone over on his passing yards total only three times, so that remains a solid contributor.

Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven