4-Time Pro Bowl QB Says Caleb Williams 'Not Even Close to His Ceiling'

Caleb Williams' breakout season in 2025 divided most of the NFL world into two camps. On the one side, detractors and some fans from rival teams will point to Williams' sub-60% completion rating and inconsistent play last year as fatal flaws in his game, proof that he's already reached his ceiling in the NFL.

However, others saw 2025 as the floor for Chicago's young quarterback, with a ceiling that remains sky-high. NFL analyst Kay Adams picked Caleb Williams as a dark horse MVP candidate in 2026, and now, former NFL quarterback and four-time Pro Bowler Derek Carr has thrown his support behind Williams. In a recent episode of his Home Grown with David and Derek Carr podcast, Carr says, "The scary part about Caleb Williams is that he's not even close to his ceiling... I think this marriage between Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson, the future is very bright for Chicago."

Understanding Caleb Williams' 2025 season

Caleb Williams and Ben Johnso — Chicago Bears QB Caleb Williams talks with head coach Ben Johnson. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images | Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

I would highly recommend watching that entire episode with David and Derek Carr, as the two brothers do a fantastic job of breaking down some of the tape from Williams' 2025 season. They show how Williams has already grown from his underwhelming rookie season, and how much better he could still be as his command of Ben Johnson's offense grows.

Most importantly, the Carr brothers display the context that is necessary to understanding and appreciating Williams' performance last year. Does throwing for just 3,942 yards and completing less than 60% of his passes make for a great season? No, certainly not. However, when you get down to the brass tacks of these stats, you see not only genuine growth in key areas, but also room for significant growth in 2026.

Remember, last year was just Year 1 of the Ben Johnson era. Not only did Williams have to unlearn the bad habits picked up from his rookie year, but he also had to learn a notoriously complex system from scratch. Johnson and his coaches asked Williams to play the quarterback position differently than he ever had before, further complicating things.

You can point to Williams' deficiencies in 2025 as reasons why some of the hype around him is premature, and that's a fair criticism. After all, Williams' appearance on the Madden 27 cover makes him arguably the least accomplished (for now) Madden cover athlete since Peyton Hillis in 2012. But if you see Williams' season stats as his ceiling rather than his floor, then you're not looking at the full picture.

How high is Caleb Williams' ceiling in 2026 and beyond?

Both Kay Adams and Derek Carr expressed their belief that, as good as Williams was in 2025, there's still so much more he can do for the Bears, and I tend to agree. Williams displayed very real problems last year, and some of his performances were downright bad, but as aforementioned, that was his first year with a new head coach and offensive system. It's far more reasonable to believe that that was the worst we'll ever see from Williams under Ben Johnson than to believe that it won't get any better.

After seeing how much Williams improved from his rookie season, particularly in sack avoidance and deep passing, I have full confidence that he can show that same degree of improvement in other areas of his game, such as footwork and accuracy. Remember, Williams fell agonizingly short of becoming Chicago's first 4,000-yard passer by completing only 58.2% of his passes. If that number gets up to just 65%, which is still very average, then Williams will blow past that mark and insert himself firmly into the MVP conversation.

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