Bear Digest

At this point only one thing seems to be holding back the Bears

There is one very good reason for much of the skepticism about the Chicago Bears' playoff and division title bids even as everything seems to be breaking their way.
Gene Chamberlain|
Caleb Williams has plenty of time to throw against the Eagles behind the blocking of Joe Thuney and Ozzy Trapilo.
Caleb Williams has plenty of time to throw against the Eagles behind the blocking of Joe Thuney and Ozzy Trapilo. | Eric Hartline-Imagn Images

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Chicago Bears

After a huge win Friday by the Bears over the Philadelphia Eagles, coach Ben Johnson chose to look at the best part of their offensive approach.

That was the two 100-yard rushers. He down played the inconsistent passing game, citing heavy wind.

"It’s a frustrating game if you’re a pass catcher because those conditions were  challenging for us to get some consistency going there, and yet they still were a big part of what we were doing there in the run game, and they knew that going into it," Johnson told reporters afterward.

As rough as the wind was, Philadelphia's Jalen Hurts still was able to complete  about 56% of his throws (19 of 34). Caleb Wiliams, meanwhile, hit a new low on the season at 47.2% completions (47.2%).

As an aberration, no one worries. This has become common, though.

Williams hasn't found 60% since the Oct. 26 loss at Baltimore. He' been below 60% eight out of the last nine games.

They've been winning, but this lack of efficiency catches up to a team. Proof is easy to find for the effect from this type of inaccuracy.

The 60% barrier and playoffs

Williams is at 58.1% completions.  It wasn’t too windy in the last nine games, just last week and possibly one other game.

If the Bears make the playoffs at the current completion percentage, it will be the first time a quarterback led his team into the playoffs without reaching 60% completions since the NFL expanded to a seven-team playoff for each conference at the start of his decade.

In fact, it would be the first time a QB led his team to the playoffs at less than 60% completions since Josh Allen completed 58.8% during a 10-6 season by the Bills in 2019

Williams' 58.1% would be lower even than Colin Kaepernick's 58.4% for San Francisco in 2013.

It would be the lowest completion percentage by a quarterback who led their team to the playoffs since Andrew Luck completed only 54.1% in 2012, his rookie season.

In days gone by, a completion percentage in the 50s wasn't uncommon even if it wasn't ideal. The farther back in time you go, QBs' completion percentages dropped. Jim McMahon completed only 56.9% for the 1985 season when the Bears won the Super Bowl.

Joe Namath completed 50.1% for his career and was hailed as the hot-shot passer of his generation.

Football advanced, rules changed.

A 58.1% or 47.2% completion mark will only put more pressure on the Bears' defense. They can't keep taking the ball away from everyone, especially without a pass rush dominating games.

They can't run the ball for 100 yards with two different backs against everyone and control the clock for 39 ½ minutes like on Friday. Defenses will come out forcing them to pass with eight men in the box.

Even if Williams keeps avoiding interceptions, as he has for the most part, a 58.1% rate is too much of a burden for the team to bear and still be treated as a serious playoff team.

It’s the primary reason the Bears are still not accorded the same respect level as other teams currently seeded in the playoffs, and the biggest challenge facing coach Ben Johnson.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.