Bear Digest

Bears make turnover differential success seem more planned than lucky

Numerous analysts cite turnover success as largely coincidental but the Bears' emphasis on both sides of the ball says something else.
Gene Chamberlain|
The Bears defense has celebrated takeaways more than any other defense this season, and the offense also rarely turns it over.
The Bears defense has celebrated takeaways more than any other defense this season, and the offense also rarely turns it over. | David Banks-Imagn Images

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While the Bears spent the season taking away the football on defense, it's at least as important how they rarely turn over the football.

Playing quarterback isn't all about touchdown passes.

Caleb Williams' six interceptions is the same total he had as a rookie and his 1.1 interception rate for the last two seasons is the best in the NFL for any quarterback with at least 700 throws.

"I can't speak highly enough of how a young quarterback like Caleb does  in terms of taking care of that football," coach Ben Johnson said. "He rarely puts it in harm's way."

One of the criticisms of Williams last year was how he seemed reluctant to throw it downfield early in the season and challenge defenders but gradually any numbers supporting this changed and this year it disappeared entirely.

He hasn't thrown an interception since the last pass at Green Bay in the Bears' 28-21 loss on Dec. 7, and in the last nine games has thrown only two.

“I think it's something that's been, one, preached to me and instilled in me throughout my career," Williams said. "And then I think the other half of it is decision making, belief and trust in what I'm seeing, but also belief and trust in the guys that are out there.

"It's not like I haven't put the ball in harm's way this year or throughout my career, it's just the belief and trust in them. Belief and trust in myself and what I'm seeing. I think I heard (Rams QB) Matthew Stafford say this once, sometimes when you throw a hard enough and typically the DBs can't catch it.”

There are two parts to the plus-22 turnover differential on offense and four total including the two on defense. They're at 32 takeaways but only 10 turnovers. The part beyond Williams' few interceptions is fumbles and the Bears rarely fumble, or at least they rarely lose fumbles. They have lost four, fourth fewest in the league.

"And then all of our ball carriers, I've been very serious about keeping it high and tight and not making it loose there," Johnson said. "There's only been a few times this year that I've gotten on the headsets and said we need to tighten it up a little bit.

"I think that's a credit to the players and the coaches both.”

The fumbler to watch for most teams is the quarterback and Williams is no different here as QBs usually are prone to this when passing or looking to throw. Williams has fumbled 18 times in two seasons, but the key is he or the team recovered 12 of them.

Fumbles, even if recovered, can be drive killers. When the Bears had Justin Fields at QB, he fumbled 38 times in three years and only lost 11 of them, but 27 fumbles that weren't lost affected the offensive flow.

Winning the turnover differential title like the Bears entered Week 18 doing isn't necessarily an ingredient to a long playoff run. The Seahawks did it in 2013, the Panthers made the Super Bowl in 2015 largely because of this and Cam Newton. But it definitely helps not to have a good differential. It sure helped in 1985, when they last led the NFL.

“It is something that we stress, so I hope coaching does play a  part of it," Johnson said.

"But, at the end of the day, I've been a part of some staffs that have really emphasized it, and it doesn't come to fruition quite like this.

"And so, I think the players have really brought it to life. The guys on defense I have said all year long, they're very ball conscious of whether it's punching the ball out or making sure when they get their hands on it, they come down with the interception."

It's been suggested all year that the Bears are too reliant on winning the takeaway battle, and that takeaways are often incidental.

However, defensive coordinator Dennis Allen had defenses that finished top half of the league in takeaways five straight years in New Orleans and top 10 four out of the five years.

The combination has served  the Bears well this season and when people say they can't count on this, they just keep proving everyone wrong.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.