Bear Digest

Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions Week 18 who wins and why

A comparison of positional groups for the Detroit Lions and Chicago Bears heading into their regular-season finale, with a prediction on the final score.
Gene Chamberlain|
Detroit Lions safety Brian Branch sacks Bears quarterback Caleb Williams in the Week 2 game at Ford Field.
Detroit Lions safety Brian Branch sacks Bears quarterback Caleb Williams in the Week 2 game at Ford Field. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

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Chicago Bears

All week the Bears have insisted they are not the same team Detroit routed 52-21 in Week 2.

No one needs proof of this now, after they soundly beat Philadelphia on the road, went toe to toe with San Francisco, beat Green Bay, and won the NFC North for the first time since 2018. The Lions are not the same team that did the routing, either.

This week Caleb Williams can hit 4,000 passing yards, a first for the Bears. It's a total embarrassment because as a charter franchise in a 105-year-old league, no one else can say this.

Yet, coach Ben Johnson doesn't care. He remains consistent with his thought process, and Williams will go into this regular-season finale not trying for the needed 270 passing yards but with one other aim.

"To win. That's really what it comes down to," Johnson said. "That's the most important statistic for us and that's the quarterback stat too.

"We're trying to get the victory here. I don't think there's anything in particular other than continuing the course of operating our offense, taking what the defense is giving us. I don't think there's any necessarily statistical goals that we're trying to hit other than we’ve got to score more points than the opponent and for him to continue to take what the defense is giving us."

The Bears want the win because it's the next game, but also because they lost the last one and the last one to Detroit.

They don't want this type of symmetry to their season. They started with back-to-back losses and the second on to Detroit. They don't want to finish the regular season that way.

"Certainly coming off a loss like that too, you don't want to go into the postseason with two losses in a row," Johnson said. "You want to have a little momentum behind you to get you going. And so, that's part of the thought process.”

Momentum doesn't always carry to the postseason but there has been no team make it to a Super Bowl after losing their last two regular-season games since 2009.

It's the Lions and the Bears on the lakefront Sunday at 3:25 p.m. to close out the 2025 regular season.

Here's who wins and why.

Bears running vs. Lions run defense

The Bears have slipped a bit to third in rushing as they've had to pass more against good defenses in recent weeks. Detroit is 16th stopping the run, 22nd in yards allowed per rush, and the Lions are without one of their best run stoppers in injured defensive tackle Alim McNeill. As long as they have LB Jack Campbell and DE Aidan Hutchinson they can cause occasional problems, but the last time the beat the Bears Johnson's running game and run blocking hadn't come together. It did this a long time ago, after Week 4. As attrition hit the Lions, they've given up 182.3 rushing yards per the last three games with a low of 158. Edge Bears

Bears passing vs. Lions pass defense

The 3 total passing yards given up by the Lions in a loss to Minnesota was an aberration while going against third-QB Max Brosmer. Detroit gave up 313 yards passing a game over the previous five and even Hutchinson's pass rush hasn't been able to counter this. They have injuries in the secondary and Caleb Williams and the Bears' receivers should be able to exploit this. Edge Bears

Lions running vs. Bears run defense

The 177 rushing yards the Lions piled up on the Bears is a distant memory, as are the big rushing games they had under Ben Johnson last year. The Lions' Knuckles and Sonic combo of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs has run for only 76.2 yards per on average in the last five games. The Bears' run defense is an open invitation for opponents to run, especially after the 49ers game, but they had been performing well against the run over a five-game stretch prior to the 42-38 loss and the win over Green Bay. It's only the best running games that gave hem fits. No Edge

Lions passing vs. Bears pass defense

The key here for the Bears will be getting some sort of steady rush on Jared Goff, and not simply off the edge from Montez Sweat. Goff is having another excellent year with 4,233 yards and 33 TDs to only seven interceptions with a 107.0 passer rating. He has the targets to win games like this but Amon-Ra St. Brown is playing hurt and Sam LaPorta's season-ending injury took heavy tolls. The Bears' pass defense is plenty sufficient if backed by a rush. Edge Lions

Special teams

Lions return man Kalif Raymond has not been up to his standards on punt return with a 7.2-yard average. Raymond and Jacob Saylors have been consistent threats with returns. The Lions' punter, Jack Fox, is the standard for NFL punters but Tory Taylor isn't far behind. Detroit kicker Jake Bates isn't having the year he did in 2024, as he's made just 79.3% Cairo Santos has been a little better at 83.3% but also isn't having his best year. No Edge.

Coaching

Ben Johnson has proven he can be a head coach and possibly even coach of the year. Dan Campbell hasn't had much success without Johnson as an offensive coordinator, in fact. The two coordinators who replaced Johnson and Aaron Glenn have been a step below what Detroit was used to having Edge Bears

Intangibles

The Bears are going to the playoffs and need momentum. They're at home to finish the regular season. There will be changes made in Detroit to the staff under Campbell and to some positions on the offensive line and on defense. The weather should be fine, but the cold works more to the Bears’ advantage when Detroit hasn’t played a game in it since last year in Chicago. Edge Bears

Prediction: Bears 31, Lions 19

DraftKings Line: Bears by 3 (over/under 50 1/2)

No, Williams will not throw for 270 yards, but he won't need to do it because the running game will work just fine as momentum is built for the playoffs.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.