Bear Digest

Bears playoff scenarios and who fans should root for in Week 18

Analysis: Bears-Packers III is the most likely playoff game next week, but if Chicago stumbles in the regular-season finale one of two West Coast teams could come to Soldier Field.
Gene Chamberlain|
C.J. Gardner-Johnson gets beat by Packers wide receiver Romeo Doubs for a touchdown in the Bears' Week 16 OT win.
C.J. Gardner-Johnson gets beat by Packers wide receiver Romeo Doubs for a touchdown in the Bears' Week 16 OT win. | Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

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Chicago Bears

Playoff scenarios facing the Bears in this closing weekend of the NFL's regular season are simple if you operate under the premise they'll beat the Detroit Lions Sunday and avoid a second two-game losing streak.

If the Bears win, they're playing Green Bay at Soldier Field next weekend as the second seed facing the seventh seed on a date and time yet to be determined.

This is the most likely scenario for the Bears. If they go on and win in the first round, they're playing at home in the next round against the winner of third-seeded Philadelphia and the sixth seed. The sixth seed would be either the Rams or the 49ers, depending on whether the Rams beat Atlanta Sunday and 49ers beat Seattle Saturday night.

If the Bears don't win Sunday, almost anything can happen. Then, what happens in Saturday night's NFC West showdown can become important.

With a Bears loss to Lions ...

  • The Bears become second seed anyway and host the Packers if the Eagles also lose Sunday to the Commanders.
  • The Bears become third seed if the Eagles beat the Commanders. The Bears would have to play at Philadelphia if both teams survive the first round of the playoffs, and would only host the divisional round if the Eagles got upset in the wild-card round.
  • If the Bears finish as third seed, they host the Rams if L.A. loses at home to Arizona on Sunday regardless of the Saturday 49ers-Seahawks game.
  • If the Bears finish as third seed, they host the 49ers if San Francisco loses Saturday night to Seattle and the Rams win Sunday over the Cardinals, or if the 49ers and Rams both lose this weekend. The Bears can't play Seattle in the wild-card round because Seattle can only finish as top seed with a win or fifth seed with a loss to San Francisco.

What's best?

As much as this might be a dreaded thought for some Bears fans, the Packers are their best option.

Green Bay didn't get to 9-6-1 because they're secretly better than a lot of opponents, like Packers fans on social media would have you believe. Obviously, it's just been bad luck and conspiracy holding back the Packers. Right.

They lost to the Eagles at home even when they still had Micah Parsons, lost to the Panthers at home, lost to Baltimore at home, and lost at 4-12 Cleveland. They were fortunate to tie the Cowboys one week after the Bears convincingly beat Dallas. The Bears already beat Green Bay once, and if the Packers lose their regular-season finale to Minnesota they are coming into the playoffs with four straight losses.

Green Bay is a team with talent but enough problems to be the seventh and last team in a seven-team NFC playoff pool. If the Packers win any playoff games, it will definitely be an upset, even if it’s against the Bears.

The Bears facing the 49ers again might be the matchup the networks like best, based on last week's wild and exciting Sunday Night Football game. The Bears already lost to the Niners, and it would be a tough game. But at least it would be in Chicago.

Facing the Rams would not be desirable, although they would be coming into the playoffs with three straight losses. They have a quarterback with a Super Bowl win in his back pocket, a good running back and beat San Francisco by two touchdowns in San Francisco. They led the NFC much of the season and have a "genius" offensive guru as their head coach. They also are experienced going on the road in the playoffs and at playing in the cold. They had to do it last year and gave Philadelphia a tough battle.

The bottom line is there are no playoff weaklings in the NFC. Whoever the Bears play, they will have to be at their best in order to advance to the divisional round.

That even goes for the likely game with the seventh-seeded Packers, because there is very little separating No. 1 in the NFC North from No. 3 or No. 4 let alone No. 1 and No. 2.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.