4 Games That Will Decide Whether Bears Make the Playoffs

The Chicago Bears' 2025 season was exactly what Bears fans had been hoping to see in head coach Ben Johnson's first year with Caleb Williams. The team saw its first winning season since 2018 and pulled off a miraculous Wild Card victory over the Green Bay Packers as the cherry on top. But as Ben Johnson has made clear, the Bears fell short of their ultimate goal of a Super Bowl title, and that's what's on the horizon for 2026.

But to get to the Super Bowl, the Bears have to first make the playoffs. To make the playoffs for the second year in a row would be a rare feat for this team, something not done since the 2006 season. They have the talent to do it, but playing in a loaded NFC North complicates things, as does what looks like a brutal 2026 schedule.

That said, whether or not the Bears make the playoffs could come down to just a handful of games. Which ones will be most important for the Bears in 2026? Here's my list of four games for Bears fans to circle on their calendars.

1. Week 8 at Seattle Seahawks

Chicago Bears QB Caleb Williams at the line of scrimmage in a game. Mandatory Credit: Talia Sprague-Imagn Images | Talia Sprague-Imagn Images

In a loaded NFC North, the Bears will be hard-pressed to repeat as division champions. In all likelihood, they will have to vie for a Wild Card spot, and that makes their Week 8 matchup with the Seattle Seahawks critical. Like the Bears, the Seahawks face a long road to repeating as division champions, especially after the L.A. Rams traded for Myles Garrett.

In a scenario where neither team wins their division, earning a Wild Card spot could come down to tiebreakers, and getting this one over Seattle could make or break Chicago's season.

2. Week 3 vs Philadelphia Eagles

Chicago Bears RB D'Andre Swift avoids a tackle in a game. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images | Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

Similar to their game against the Seahawks, the Bears' matchup with the Eagles in Week 3 could very likely serve as a tiebreaker when it comes to Wild Card seeding. The NFC East is expected to be wide open in 2026, and the Eagles could very well see their streak atop the division end at two years, which would put them into the Wild Card mix. Beating both Seattle and Philadelphia could be the easiest way for Chicago to make the playoffs, if they're unable to secure the NFC North.

3. Week 4 vs New York Jets

Chicago Bears RB David Montgomery carries the ball against the New York Jets. Mandatory Credit: Ed Mulholland-Imagn Images | Ed Mulholland-Imagn Images

Unlike the Eagles and Seahawks, the Jets are expected to be a complete mess once again in 2026. So why is this matchup so important for the Bears? Because this is one of those games that they should win, and dropping a 'should win' game can kill a team's season in January. Look at the Packers in 2025. Their matchups against the Cowboys and Browns were seen as 'should win', but they tied one and lost to the other, and it cost them the home field advantage that could have prevented that epic collapse in their Wild Card playoff game.

This is a game the Bears should win, one that could very well propel them to a strong 4-0 start to the season. If they look past the Jets one week ahead of their critical Week 5 showdown in Green Bay, it could come back to bite them come playoff time, or even send them into an early tailspin.

4. Week 16 vs Green Bay Packers

Chicago Bears RB Kyle Monangai reacts after picking up a first down. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images | David Banks-Imagn Images

In all likelihood, the NFC North division championship will be decided right here. Depending on how the rest of the season goes for the Bears, this could be a win-and-in game, punching their playoff ticket on Christmas Day against their bitter rivals, which would give them two weeks to tinker with gameplans before the postseason begins.

Sure, they face the Lions and Vikings in the next two weeks after this one, but I'm not as convinced as others are that the Lions are due for a big bounceback, and the Vikings remain a major question mark, though they are loaded with potential. For now, the NFC North belongs to the Bears, but the Packers are hot on their heels, and they'll be looking for payback.

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