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Bear Digest

How Chicago Bears Could Be Caught in a Tight NFC Playoff Squeeze

One popular theory is every team in the NFC North could make the playoffs this year but Bears fans anticipating this possibility could be in for a shock.
Gene Chamberlain|
Cairo Santos kicks the game-winning field goal against Minnesota last season, thwarting the Vikings' bid for a comeback win.
Cairo Santos kicks the game-winning field goal against Minnesota last season, thwarting the Vikings' bid for a comeback win. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

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Chicago Bears

A question posed by The Athletic's Jacob Robinson has to delight every NFC North team's fans, or at least satisfy many of them.

This thought is, could 2026 be the year every single team in the division makes the playoffs?

Robinson points out how the Bears' division became the second in modern NFL history with every team finishing above .500 last season. He even makes the comment "Yes, even the J.J. McCarthy-led Vikings had a winning record (9-8)."

This probably infuriates Vikings fans since they actually finished ahead of the Lions in the NFC North standings and Detroit received the last-place schedule and an earlier draft pick.

While this would be the first time every team in the division made the playoffs in a season if it did happen, it wouldn't be the first year all of the current teams in this division made the playoffs. In 1994, the Bears, Packers, Lions and Vikings all made the playoffs but there were five teams in the old NFC Central then. Tampa Bay was the other team and did not get into the postseason.

WHERE THE BEARS TURNED AFTER LUTHER BURDEN'S INJURY REVEALS PLENTY

The problem with this idea for 2026 is not the quality of the talent or the teams. That talent level has become obvious over the last few years, and with Caleb Williams' rise even the Bears have a quarterback for once.

What makes it unlikely this year is the NFC West and also the schedule.

Why it won't be an NFC North party

When the black and blue division put four teams into the playoffs, they didn't face a scenario with three dominant teams in another division within the conference.

The NFC West didn't just dry up and go away after last season. In fact, the Rams look much tougher now because of Myles Garrett and other changes. The Seahawks are defending champs. And the 49ers made offseason improvements, but also couldn't be expected to have as many injuries as last year when they made the playoffs despite bad health.

If three NFC West teams look like locks to get in again, then it's not going to be possible for all four NFC North teams to make it. There are only seven playoff teams and the NFC South and NFC East winners take up two of those. The best the NFC North could hope for would be two teams making it, possibly three if someone in the West falters.

The other reason this can't happen is the schedule.

The Bears have what is judged to be the toughest schedule based on last year's opponent winning percentages, but they also have the toughest schedule based on the Sharp Football Analysis method of using 2026 Vegas projected win totals. Often these preseason schedule projections are off, but any way you look at it the Bears face a formidable group of opponents.

The schedule situation is even tougher than it looks because the top three NFC West teams this year generally have easier schedules than NFC North teams.

Based on the Sharp method, only one of the four NFC North teams has a schedule outside the top 11 for difficulty, and that's Detroit. However, in the NFC West none of the top three teams have schedules ranked in the top 11 for degree of difficulty. The only team in that division with a particularly tough schedule per Sharp is Arizona, tied for third most difficult with Green Bay.

If the Bears do what they haven't done since 2005-06 and make the playoffs in successive seasons, they'll most likely go in with one or no other divisional team in tow.

This probably wouldn't break anyone's heart in Chicago. After all, ask most Bears fans and they'll say their idea of the perfect season is winning the Super Bowl but only if the Packers don't win a single game. Insert the Lions or Vikings instead and that would do, as well.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.

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