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Bear Digest

Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers: Who Wins and Why for Week 5

Breaking down the positional group matchups for Sunday's noon Bears game at Green Bay with a final prediction and key betting trends.
Gene Chamberlain|
Austin Booker gets the heat on Jordan Love during the Bears' January playoff win over the Packers.
Austin Booker gets the heat on Jordan Love during the Bears' January playoff win over the Packers. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

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Chicago Bears

It would seem sacrilegious to suggest the Bears would fail to go up to Green Bay and win one for Da Coach a few days after his passing.

They managed to pull out a ridiculous 14-13 win over the Packers in 1999 after Walter Payton died, with Bryan Robinson blocking the 28-yard field goal try for the win. They also won on a Thursday night game in Washington after Dick Butkus died in 2023. So of course they should be able to win one for the late Mike Ditka.

However, there are good reasons to think this one won't be so easy for the Bears in spite of the emotional boost and all the talk about a collapse this season by Green Bay.

The Packers (2-2) lack two of their best defensive players. They don't have running back Josh Jacobs. Their offensive line is a shambles compared to how it looked as recently as the start of training camp.

However, they still have weapons, good coaching, and the Bears are using a backup quarterback while missing one half of their 1-2 punch on the ground. Starting Tyson Bagent for a second straight week after he threw four passes that were picked off with only one standing due to penalties is a scary stat.

"We're just looking to get better from his first start to his next start and really I think as a team right now, we're still in that mode," coach Ben Johnson said.

They'll need to be better because the Packers always find a way to be up for the Bears game regardless of seasonal or any other special circumstances.

It's the Bears and the Packers at Lambeau Field Sunday at noon in the 214th game in this series. Here's who wins and why:

Bears running vs. Packers run defense

This would normally be a completely lopsided Bears edge. The Packers are 28th in run defense but they are 17th in yards allowed per carry. So, they're not at a total loss. DT Javon Hargrave is questionable with a toe injury for the Packers and they lost linebacker Edgerrin Cooper for the year. Kyle Monangai is the battering ram for the Bears' league-leading attack, but they have had experience playing without backs in the past. D'Andre Swift will be there to start, while Brittain Brown and Roschon Johnson can supply burst and power. Brown had a strong game last year with Swift hurt in Cincinnati. Edge to Bears

Bears passing vs. Packers pass defense

Green Bay's secondary definitely can't be trifled with, as safeties Xavier McKinney and Evan Williams provide sufficient backstop to a so-so group of cornerbacks. The pass rush has been similar to the Bears rush even without Micah Parsons and they can pressure a QB. The presence of the dominant safeties means trouble for Tyson Bagent, whose throws normally float a little anywhere. And in Bagent's case the road start can be a disaster. He is 0-2 in the NFL starting on the road, with both games less than impressive. This is one game where the Bears will need anything TE Colston Loveland and TE Cole Kmet can provide. Edge to Packers

Packers running game vs. Bears run defense

A punchless Packers running game runs headlong into a sagging Bears run defense. If the Bears had a way to stop running attacks, this would be a team they could shut down. They're still giving up 4.9 yards a carry and get by because three teams had to abandon the run after they couldn't keep up with the Bears' scoring output. Look for Kaleb Johnson or even Chris Brooks to emerge as their main ball carrier because MarShawn Lloyd hasn't gotten the job done. No Edge

Packers passing game vs. Bears pass defense

Jordan Love will be confronted by a better interior pass rush than the Bears showed him last year, and Dayo Odeyingbo has been coming on the complement Montez Sweat and Austin Booker on the edge. The real question is whether the Bears' secondary can hold up to the speed Green Bay has in receivers Christian Watson and Matthew Golden. Love's 86.5 passer rating and sub-par 6.8 yards per attempt definitely are not typical of the way he has played in the past. The wild card in this game is whether the Bears bring back slot cornerback Kyler Gordon. Despite their changes in the secondary and a no-name defense overall, the Bears are third at defending the pass. Ben Johnson said it's possible one of his three PUP guys could be back and Gordon would fit their plans perfectly. He had a strong game against the Packers in the playoffs. No Edge

Special teams

Green Bay's Skyy Moore has the attention of the Bears' coverage units, with a decent 27.5-yard average and an outstanding 16.0-yard average on punt returns. He's outperforming Bears rookie kick returner Zavion Thomas by a good margin and also Kalif Raymond in punt return, although not nearly by as much. The kickers and punters have been fairly comparable for both teams and the Bears' kick coverage unit might have a slight advantage. Edge to Packers

Coaching

Matt LaFleur needs that running game to make his offense work, just like Johnson needs it for the Bears offense. He doesn't have it, though, and Johnson does. The Packers' revenge stuff from last year all sounds nice but in the end that was last year. That was a different team on both sides. This Packers team got slaughtered by Atlanta and barely beat a Tampa Bay team that had Jalon Daniels in his first NFL start at QB. Johnson low-keying the rivalry this week is more in line with what he preaches. He doesn't treat any opponent differently even if he enjoys beating LaFleur. Edge to Bears

Intangibles

The worm has turned or chickens have come home to roost or some such thing. With three wins in the last four games against the Packers, the fear and uncertainty the Bears always had about whether they could actually play on the same level is no longer there. Considering Green Bay is 2-2 and easily could be 1-3, and the Bears would be 4-0 if not for a missed block on a chip-shot field goal and a fumble at the 1-yard line, it would seem the pendulum has swung. Big Mo has come to the Bears' side in this. Give this to the Bears before I think of another silly cliche. Edge to Bears

Picking the winner

Draft Kings Line: Bears by 1 1/2 (over/under 45 1/2)

Gene Chamberlain's pick: Bears 23, Packers 20

Gene Chamberlain's record vs spread: 2-2 (Overall 2-2, 1-3 over/under)

Key to Bears win: Limiting gains on Green Bay's big pass plays and not falling behind early. They nearly lost all three games last year by trailing big early on, and there is no Iceman coming to save anyone this time.

Bears and Packers betting trends

  • The Packers haven't covered the spread this year, and are 0-3 with one push
  • The Bears are 3-1 ATS this season
  • The Bears have one seven of their last nine when they were listed as favorites
  • The Bears are 4-2 ATS in their last eight road games
  • Green Bay has gone over the total in its last three home games
  • It's been over the total in the last three Bears road games

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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Published
Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.

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