Bear Digest

Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings Week 11 who wins and why

A comparison of the positional group battles in Sunday's game at Minneapolis with a prediction on the final outcome as Caleb Williams and the Bears try to stay in first place.
Gene Chamberlain|
Caleb Williams reacts after scrambling for a first down in the first game against Minnesota.
Caleb Williams reacts after scrambling for a first down in the first game against Minnesota. | Matt Marton-Imagn Images

In this story:

Chicago Bears

One phrase kept popping up from Bears players over the past week of preparations for Sunday's NFC North rematch with the Minnesota Vikings.

It's their major talking point for the week.

"We’re both completely different, new teams, so we know it’s a different challenge, a different point in the season," wide receiver Rome Odunze said.

Funny, but nine games have gone by and the team that faces the Vikings now still doesn't have T.J. Edwards, Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon. And they're not out for the season.

The Vikings do have Jordan Addison for this one and they didn't have him in the  opener.

"He's a guy that can win one-on-one," safety Kevin Byard said. "So that's going to be a different piece that we're going to have to defend this upcoming game. But like I've said, both teams are at a different point in the season."

But the Vikings don’t have edge Jonathan Greenard on defense and that’s a key part of their defensive puzzle.

It was nine games ago and things were much different for the Bears in the first game than  now, even if those three missing key defensive players remain temporarily out of the picture.

The season-opening 27-24 loss to the Vikings had been a 17-6 lead. Instead of the miracle comeback win with Caleb Williams' arm and legs doing the work, or a blocked field goal, or Colston Loveland bouncing off of a tackle and going the distance, the Bears gained only a defeat.

You can't replay the same game now. The rosters are different, players have  changed due to injuries. The Bears knew very little about their own offense and defense in Week 1 since it was their debut under Ben Johnson.

They can still get a little satisfaction, though, and also break a  three-game Minnesota winning streak in the series while remaining in first place in the NFC North.

It's the Bears and Vikings in Week 11 at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis. Here's who wins and why.

Bears running vs. Vikings run defense

The Bears managed only 53 yards rushing from running backs in the opener but Minnesota's run defense has been only sporadically effective. They did hold the Lions to 65 yards rushing and Eagles to 45 but their pass defense betrayed them against Philadelpia so they lost anyway. They got trampled by Altanta for 218 rushing yards and 207 by the Chargers. It's been trending up for the Bears' running game behind D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai and the blocking of tackles Theo Benedet, Darnell Wright and the interior line. With 145 yards rushing or more in four of their last five, the Bears have a real running attack now after they lacked one in the opener. Doing it against a team within their division that ranks 22nd against the run but has seen them so often won't be simple but they should be able to do it based on their surge. Edge to Bears

Bears passing vs. Vikings pass defense

Without Jonathan Greenard, the Vikings will be more dependent upon coordinator Brian Flores' blitzing schemes, but could be more susceptible to big gainers. Minnesota played very effective pass defense early and ranks eighth against the pass largely by holding its first five opponents to 198 yards or less. But the Vikings have given up an average of 234 yards since those five games. Meanwhile, the Bears passing game has produced 236 yards a game since the opener. Caleb Williams' effective scrambling is an outgrowth of the passing game. Edge to Bears

Vikings running game vs. Bears run defense

The Bears' run defense has been a great deal like Minnesota's, breaking occasionally and then dominating in some instances. They didn't handle losing Dayo Odeyingbo well last week but will have Dominique Robinson back this week and they like his run-stopping ability. The Vikings have ingredients to run the ball better, and Jordan Mason shredded the Bears' lighter-box approach apart last time in the fourth quarter, but Mason vanishes at times. Aaron Jones has always been a Bears killer but his 186 yards in five games says he isn't the same player. Edge to Vikings

Vikings passing game vs. Bears pass defense

The Bears have to hope the J.J. McCarthy who showed up in the fourth quarter of the season opener is not in the dome, and the McCarthy who has been there through most of his other 15 quarters is. His 53.7% accuracy on the year makes Caleb Williams look like a dead-eye. His five TDs to six interceptions and 6.4 yards per attempt with receivers like Justin Jefferson, Addison and T.J. Hockenson available is abysmal. But he did have that one good quarter against the Bears and that alone must worry Bears defensive coordinator Dennis Allen. With his cast of receivers, he doesn't need to be spectacular. The Bears' secondary has been a big-play group but gives up far too many big plays, as well, ranking 29th preventing TD passes with 20. Edge to Vikings

Special Teams

One nightmare special teams game for the Bears hasn't tainted their season, and their coverage/blocking ranks now have added several key veteran performers who had been unavailable earlier, like Josh Blackwell, Amen Ogbongbemiga, Travis Homer and Roschon Johnson.  Myles Price is a slightly better kick returner this year than Devin Duvernay, but the Bears' returner is a little better on punt returns. Will Reichard's only two misses were beyond 50 and he is having a better year kicking field goals than Cairo Santos. He's is in his element indoors. Tory Taylor has been a bit longer with his punts than Minnesota's Ryan Wright and has had to do it outdoors. The Vikings coverage units have slight advantages over the Bears but Bears special teams personnel has improved with the injured players' returns. No Edge

Coaching

Kevin O'Connell owns strategic abilities over many coaches but Ben Johnson is not one of them based on his time as a coordinator with the Lions. Johnson usually had the upper hand then. Brian Flores had a less aggressive game plan in the season opener and expect he'll get more aggressive now. The same is true with Dennis Allen and the Bears defense. No Edge

Intangibles

The Bears haven't won in Minnesota since 2020 and the Vikings are going to be especially focused for this one as a sixth loss could be disaster for their playoff chances. Working on the Bears' side now is that last game -everyone says is now meangingless. It's not easy to gain a two-game sweep over teams when they're comparable, and at this point there's every reason to think the Vikings are no longer that 14-3 team they were last year. No Edge

Final score: Bears 27, Viking 24

Expect the script to be flipped. The Bears and their running game will come on strong late as they have shown an ability to do while winning 4-of-5 one-score games. Minnesota had ruled in tight games in the past, but is 3-3 in one-score games this year. The trend is the Bears' friend Sunday.

The DraftKings line: Vikings by 3 (over/under 48 1/2)

More Chicago Bears News

Sign Up For the Bears Daily Digest - OnSI’s Free Chicago Bears Newsletter

X: BearsOnSI

Published | Modified
Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.