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Bear Digest

Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings: Who Wins and Why for Week 2

A weekly comparison of Bears position group matchups with their opponent, and final prediction on the score as Caleb Williams and Co. host the Vikings.
Gene Chamberlain|
Kyle Monangai powers for a touchdown against Minnesota.
Kyle Monangai powers for a touchdown against Minnesota. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

In this story:

Chicago Bears

With an entirely healthy active roster, the Bears' biggest challenge this past week has been putting last week in the past.

When an offense scores 59 points in an NFL game, a feeling of invincibility should seem a natural foe because everyone knows it's a week-to-week league.

"We all know we've lived this roller coaster that each week seems like it's up and down," coach Ben Johnson said. "You win and you're sky high, you lose and you stink. And so we just try to stay as static inside of the building as we possibly can.

"We know we made a ton of mistakes in all three phases. We're looking to clean those up, we're looking to get better each and every week. You've heard a couple of those guys in the locker room talk about that should be our worst game that we played Week 1. We should continue to get better from here on out so that we're playing our best football in December and January."

A league so evenly balanced mandates full attention each week. Huge scoring outputs aren't really a consideration, anyway. As Johnson said on Wednesday, they haven't scored a point this week.

Just in case someone wonders, though, the Bears' record for scoring in consecutive games is 104 from Nov. 16 and 23 in 1941 when they beat the Lions 53-14 and Giants 51-7.

The NFL record for the first two weeks in a season is 95 by the Raiders, although that technically was the AFL.

And the NFL record for scoring in consecutive games is 135 points by the L.A. Rams in 1950 with a 70-24 win over the Baltimore Colts, followed by a 65-24 win over the Lions.

So, no need to worry about consecutive game scoring records. Facing Brian Flores' defense automatically reduces a team's scoring output. The Vikings have given up no more than 37 points since Flores became defensive coordinator.

Simply winning takes priority in NFC North games but just in case you're counting, the Vikings have allowed 30 or more eight times since Flores became coordinator. Half of those came against offenses coached by Ben Johnson.

It's the Bears and Vikings on the lakefront Sunday at noon, here's who wins and why.

Bears running vs. Vikings run defense

If the Bears are going to get a running attack going, it might not look consistent. The Vikings put seven or eight on the line and blitz. The holes are often not apparent but sometimes they're vulnerable to being gashed. The Bears are No. 1 in rushing and rushing EPA while the Vikings are No. 1 in run defense and run defense EPA. Johnson's team did run for 119 and 140 against the Vikings last year. Handling D-tackle Jalen Redmond, who had 12 tackles for loss last year, is a Bears key. The difference in rushing stats might be Williams' own rushing scrambling for yards to escape the blitz. He has 120 yards on 22 carries in four games against Flores' defense. No Edge

Bears passing vs. Vikings pass defense

Colston Loveland can't have another game for the Bears like last week, when he was shut out. The tight end is an essential contributor as a receiver against blitzes. Cole Kmet will be as essential, as will running back D'Andre Swift. The Vikings blitzed almost 80% of the time last week but it's easier to do something like that on your own field. The Vikings were vulnerable to big plays against the pass with all of their blitzes and the Packers burned them for 353 yards. It's hard to believe Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson wouldn't see this possibility. Edge to Bears

Vikings running vs. Bears run defense

Minnesota had a very limited rushing game last week and their top rusher, Jordan Mason, is now on injured reserve. They'll have to depend on Aaron Jones, who is capable but 31 years old, and with all their backs available to start last week they averaged only 3.1 yards a carry. The Bears' run defense last week really did look improved over last year even though they gave up 125 yards on 22 attempts. Only 73 yards and less than 4.0 per carry came against starters. The backups for both teams were on when Carolina got 52 rushing yards at game's end. Look for T.J. Edwards to bounce back after a lackluster game last week. Edge to Bears

Vikings passing vs. Bears pass defense

Using backup QB Carson Wentz is no huge issue because Kyler Murray had a slow start last week and Wentz started five times last year. He and Justin Jefferson have built up a good connection. The Bears' pass rush was so-so last week, although ESPN gave them one of the league's better pass rush win rates. That still didn't amount to much in sacks or real pressure. Their pass coverage was abysmal and it would need to improve drastically to earn an advantage here. When Wentz faced Dennis Allen's Saints defense, he threw three interceptions and had a miserable day. Still, the Bears' personnel isn't the same as those Saints' personel. Edge to Vikings

Special teams

The Vikings love their kicker, Will Reichard, but he kicks indoors at home and he could be kicking in rain or a wet field Sunday. Cairo Santos is well tested under harsh conditions. Minnesota struggled last week covering kicks and it seems a good opportunity for the Bears to get kick returner Zavion Thomas going. Vikings return man Myles Price definitely didn't have a slow start, breaking a 68-yard kick return and averaging 35.8 yards. He also had a 13-yard return. No Edge

Coaching

Johnson's history of finding ways to score against Flores' defenses was mostly in Detroit. The Bears had only 19 and 24 against the Vikings last year in splitting two games. Vikings coach Kevin O'Connell, on the other hand, hasn't had problems with his offense scoring against the Bears or Dennis Allen defenses. No edge

Intangibles

The Bears have lost six straight at home to the Vikings, which seems like a streak that should end considering how improved Johnson's team is since he took over. The Bears had been terrible at home against the Packers but reversed that trend last year. The elements can work against the Vikings but the forecast is rather sketchy and it sounds as if much of the rain could be done by kickoff. If not, and it rains, the advantage can swing to Chicago over the dome team. No edge

Picking the winner

Draft Kings Line: Bears by 4 1/2 (over/under 48 1/2)
Gene Chamberlain's pick: Bears 26, Vikings 21
Gene Chamberlain's record vs spread: 1-0 (1-0 over/under)
Key to Bears win: Turnovers and Caleb Williams handling Vikings pressure. The Bears have won their last 10 when they force a turnover, the Vikings led the NFL in turning it over last year. Williams was sixth in passing yards against blitzes last week and 12th in overall EPA against the blitz.

Betting trends

  • Both teams covered in wins last week
  • Both teams were over the total last week
  • The Vikings are 3-0-1 in their last four ATS following a game when they covered the line
  • It's been under the total in seven of the last nine Vikings games after they allowed 350 yards or more the previous game
  • The Bears are 16-6-2 ATS in their last 24 games
  • It's been under the total six straight times a week after the Bears gave up more than 30 points

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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Published
Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.

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