Analyzing the Historical Hit Rate of Safeties in the Chicago Bears’ Draft Window

This is my third position evaluation piece ahead of the 2026 NFL Draft. I covered the defensive tackles and defensive ends last week.

1. Defensive Tackle

2. Defensive End

Next up, safeties.

The 2026 NFL Draft features a wealth of talent at the safety position. Teams will find quality starters deep into day two this year. However, if you want a true day one game changer at the position, you'll have to pay up for them.

Ohio State's Caleb Downs is a relative lock to go in the first half of round one. Oregon's Dillon Thieneman and Toledo's Emmanuel McNeill-Warren won't have to wait too much longer to hear their names called from there.

With this being the third installment, I wanted to provide a bit more insight into my thought process in these articles. As far as the draft range, I thought picks 20-32 made the most sense with the Bears picking at 25. Could I have done the entire second half of the first round? Sure, but I feel like the average 16th overall pick tends to feature players in a different tier than the one the Bears will be selecting from later this month. Could I have looked at picks 20 to 30 to get the most accurate "range"? Sure, but that would've just been weird.

With that said, I know that every draft is different, and the line of demarcation varies with each class. These lists should not be taken as bond. I wanted to write the series because I wanted to gauge what the Bears were up against when it comes to their goal of finding a franchise cornerstone late in the first.

Also, you'll find (or if you saw the other two pieces, then you've already found) that the grading portion of these articles is highly subjective. Players who achieved success are relatively easy to categorize on these lists, but the ones who fell short of expectations are much more difficult to grade.

For example, what grade do you assign to someone who never really played at a high level during their career but still managed to stick around for a near-decade? Some might view it as a miss because they never ascended to their first-round draft status. Others might actually see it as a hit because they stuck around for so long. To me, that grades out as an average career.

Now that I got the information that I should've specified in the first installment out of the way (I kind of did, but felt like I didn't flesh it out enough), how does the safety position compare to first-round defensive tackles and edge rushers?

Player	Team	Year & Pick	Grade
Devin McCourty	Patriots	2010, 27	Mega Hit
Harrison Smith	Vikings	2012, 29	Mega Hit
Matt Elam	Ravens	2013, 32	Miss
Ha Ha Clinton-Dix	Packers	2014, 21	Hit
Jimmie Ward	49ers	2014, 30	Hit
Byron Jones	Cowboys	2015, 27	Hit
Damarious Randall	Packers	2015, 30	Average
Jabrill Peppers	Browns	2017, 25	Average
Terrell Edmunds	Steelers	2018, 28	Average
Darnell Savage Jr.	Packers	2019, 21	Average
Johnathan Abram	Raiders	2019, 27	Miss
Daxton Hill	Bengals	2022, 31	Average (at S) Hit (at CB)
Lewis Cine	Vikings	2022, 32	Miss
Malaki Starks	Ravens	2025, 27	Hit

This one is by far the most striking group yet. There was only one bust drafted late in the first round from 2010 through 2015. That's highly impressive considering seven safeties came off the board in the range over that span.

Since that point, only one player was a clear hit at the position (among players who stayed at safety). And honestly, Malaki Starks has only played one year. We've seen countless players regress to the norm after a standout rookie season.

Has the league gotten worse at evaluating safeties? Or is it a coincidence that the teams picking safeties at the back half of the first round in the early-to-mid 2010s fared much better than the teams following a similar blueprint since?

With two mega hits, five hits, four average players, and three misses, safeties drafted in the back end of the first round have fared much better than defensive ends or defensive tackles.

History says that the safety position provides the best odds to find a first-round hit (among the positions I've covered so far). Likewise, it's also the best bet to find someone who will at least be an average starter.

That actually isn't that surprising when you think about it. Safety is by far the most devalued position that I'll be covering (I will also analyze cornerback and left tackle). If a safety gets drafted in the first round in today's NFL, that usually means they're a rock-solid prospect in relation to their peers. Unlike the first two position groups, there were virtually zero egregious reaches on first-round safeties in recent memory.

What does this study say about the Bears chances of finding an impact safety at pick 25 if they decide to go that route?

I was previously on board with drafting a safety in the first round, and that stance grew a bit stronger after reviewing this one. Downs, McNeill-Warren, and Thieneman are squarely at the top of my first-round wish list.

Could the Bears find a starter at safety beyond the first round? Yes, that often is the case. Great safeties aren't nearly as affected by positional value, though.

The three guys I mentioned above certainly fit that billing. They'd be first-round picks (or they should be, anyway) in virtually any draft. The only reason that one of them might be available at pick 25 is that the draft is strong (or at least top-heavy) at premier positions. The defensive end position is absolutely loaded. Six pass-rushers might be off the board before the Bears are on the clock. Four or five offensive tackles will probably be gone, too. Same with receivers.

All things considered, I felt strongly about Downs, EMW, and Thieneman a week ago. This study really wasn't going to change that, regardless of the results. However, it's good to see them strengthen my stance that it's the right move in this instance.