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Bear Digest

What the Mock Draft Percentages Say for Bears' Pick at No. 25

Actual football production and mock draft numbers indicate different players as ideal choices for the Bears at No. 25, even if they're on the same team.
Gene Chamberlain|
Clemson defensive tackle Peter Woods might be the Bears' percentage play per mock drafts but his teammate appears more capable to impact games.
Clemson defensive tackle Peter Woods might be the Bears' percentage play per mock drafts but his teammate appears more capable to impact games. | Ken Ruinard / USA Today Co Inc SC / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

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Chicago Bears

There are numerous ways to determine who the Bears will pick and none are very exact because countless scenarios make No. 25 overall just too tough of a call.

So, mock drafts can help. The NFL Mock Draft Data Base has been collecting, compounding and collating mock drafts for 2026 since last year. Sports Info Solution used the Database' percentages from last week's mock drafts to produce a unique, fun chart that suggests the next first-round Bears pick by GM Ryan Poles will come from Clemson.

It's just difficult to say which Clemson player at this point, though.

The chart uses last week's 73 collected mock drafts and comes up with a percentage play on each of the players and the slot in the draft order.

The most likely Bears pick by mock draft percentages appears to be Clemson defensive tackle Peter Woods.

Why it looks like Woods

The percentage is higher that Woods is available to the Bears than teammate T.J. Parker, an edge rusher, but it's not by much. It's the drop-off that occurs after the 25th pick for Woods that indicates the extent mock drafts see the Bears taking the 6-2 1/2, 298-pound defensive tackle.

The mock drafts say there is a 56% chance Woods remains available for the Bears at No. 25, but there is only a 31% chance he would still be available to Buffalo at No. 26. The 25% difference is the greatest drop for any player to that point after the dip of 31% for Akheem Mesidor between the 15th pick and the Jets at No. 16.

So the mocks are saying Woods most likely would be a Bears player if he goes undrafted by No. 25. This position is backed up by a Pro Football Network mock draft study showing 41% of mocks see the Bears going defensive tackle first, although the player varies.

If you're thinking safety, the mocks sees less than a 50-50 chance for Toledo's Emmanuel McNeil-Warren to remain available by the Bears' selection at 48%. However, that figure is cut in half by the Bills' selection at No. 26. So McNeil-Warren would be second-most likely Bears pick by this method.

There are two other players with big drop offs in availability after the Bears finish their pick. Auburn edge Keldic Faulk is viewed as having only a 41% chance of being available to the Bears but that drops off to a 25% chance he'd be available for Buffalo if he makes it to the Bears.

If the Bears find Woods available it would definitely solve a need should he be better than his numbers said from college. He had 84 tackles, 15 for loss, and five sacks.

No. 2 on the list is a safety

None of the likely options by percentages are ideal picks. If they draft McNeil-Warren, he's coming from a conference where he didn't see the best competition. If it's Faulk, he's a little more proven with 10 sacks and 20 tackles for loss in three seasons at edge or Auburn.

At least in Faulk, they'd have a player with the size for his position to fit Dennis Allen's scheme at 6-foot-6, 276 pounds. However, only two of his sacks came last season.

Parker wouldn't quite be the same as Faulk size but the production can't be denied with 21 1/2 sacks and 42 tackles for loss over 39 games for the Tigers.

Overall production says a lot more for a player than the percentages based on mock drafts, and the Bears couldn't go wrong with someone with Parker's credentials should he last that long.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.

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