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Bear Digest

How Chicago Bears Fit the NFC North Trend for Success in Coming Season

An obvious trend ended last year in the NFC North and now the Bears and Caleb Williams seem perfectly suited to re-establish it.
Gene Chamberlain|
Colston Loveland catches a touchdown pass last season. The Bears' explosive offense and the trend for NFC North offenses say it's going to be a year when scoring is in within the division.
Colston Loveland catches a touchdown pass last season. The Bears' explosive offense and the trend for NFC North offenses say it's going to be a year when scoring is in within the division. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

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Chicago Bears

Last year if the Bears wanted to win an NFC North game they needed to come up with 26.2 points on average.

The average points for the losing team in NFC North games was only 15.

Things figure to change in the division in 2026, and with Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams guiding the offense the Bears seem well equipped to remain where they need to be to defend their title. That's because it figures this year to be much more about scoring and offense in the NFC North.

Last season's 26.2 points for winners was the lowest average score for winners in division games since 2019. The 15 points for losers in NFC North games was the lowest since it was 14.9 in 2019. The norm has become higher scoring, and when it went down last year with 41.2 and hadn't been that low since it was 36.9 in 2019, then all logic says the scoring will go back up in 2026.

Higher totals is the norm and the law of averages says scoring goes up, but this might not be the only reason it happens.

Kevin Patra of NFL.com identified a common trend for all of the NFC North teams in the coming season in his training camp preview of the division. The commonality within the division is that there are real questions about each team's defense. If the defenses all face possible problems, and the offenses should be no less potent than last year or perhaps even better, then high scores are coming.

Patra had a real problem with the Bears' defensive line, as every one does.

"The club added a few rotational interior defenders but is counting significantly on bounce-back campaigns from Grady Jarrett and Gervon Dexter Sr. Montez Sweat still doesn't have a proven pass rusher on the opposite side," Patra wrote.

"Austin Booker showed signs down the stretch last year, but can he take his game to another level? Is there enough down the line?"

While the Lions' defensive front looks solid, Patra points out DB Brian Branch is recovering from an Achilles tear, safety Kerby Joseph's status is uncertain after a knee injury limited him to six games last year, and then there is the Terrion Arnold arrest situation.

Green Bay's huge defensive issue is who can rush the passer until Micah Parsons returns but there is one other he doesn't mention.

Green Bay changed defensive coordinators. Continuity is king and this can't be a plus for their chances to stop opponents in the season's first half.

The Vikings obviously have scheme continuity that Green Bay lacks on that side of the ball because of Brian Flores' wizardry. However, the Vikings have had tremendous turnover in defensive personnel. Their entire line is redone and inexperience rules across the front. In back, Harrison Smith has hit the point where the team could be moving ahead without him.

Add all of that together and defenses in the NFC North look ill equipped to handle what looks like as potent a group of offenses from No. 1 through 4 as any division has.

The team that wins the NFC North is going to need to be explosive and may wind up needing to outscore opponents in wild games because of all the defensive deficiencies in the division. For once, because of Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams, the Bears appear entirely equipped to handle this type of challenge.

It's going to be a year when offenses reign supreme in the NFC North and the team that won last year can't be ruled out because they're going to be able to reach the end zone any number of ways.

Pro Football Network's offensive power rankings have the Bears No. 3 in the league and No. 1 in the NFC North. After Johnson elevated the offense from last to sixth in 2025, it's entirely reasonable to anticipate they could be the division's best offense in 2026, if not in the NFC.

It's going to take that type of season to defend an NFC North title.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.

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