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Why Caleb Williams and 'Lucky' Chicago Bears Can Be Even More Fortunate

The wild wins by the Chicago Bears late in games hide one very disturbing trend lasting back over almost all of this decade.
Gene Chamberlain|
Someone needs to explain to the Bears why they haven't had roughing the passer walked off against an opponent since 2022 but it's been called 35 times when Patrick Mahomes gets hit since 2018.
Someone needs to explain to the Bears why they haven't had roughing the passer walked off against an opponent since 2022 but it's been called 35 times when Patrick Mahomes gets hit since 2018. | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

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Chicago Bears

The lucky Chicago Bears narrative is a popular one to have come out of the league in the 2025 season, and it's common to hear how they can't possibly hope to win like this again in 2026.

As a result, they must be better. They must be much better, and there is no denying this whether someone thinks they were lucky or not. Their first-place schedule dictates as much. The thought they were very fortunate last year and will have a hard time repeating 2025 is central in Robert Mays' The Athletic Football Show, with a podcast devoted to Caleb Williams and the Bears. The Bears' charmed life is also a theme in a story by The Athletic's Dan Wiederer.

It's accurate to say they can't hope to repeat what they did last year, when they led in takeaways and turnover differential and barely pulled out comeback wins., In some ways, though, it's less accurate.

Obviously they couldn't hope to win as many close games when they trailed late again. Few teams ever do this. Yet, it's not like they were 11-0 or 11-2 in one-score games. They weren't even top three in the league at 7-4 in those. They're also not playing the same schedule again, with the same roster, in the same circumstances. They're not playing 2025 over again. It won't be the same no matter what happens.

They do need to be better, but good luck can help and luck works in different ways.

A Rome Odunze catch on the Bears' first drive when he got open near the goal line against the Rams in the playoffs, and perhaps that game never goes to overtime. The Bears wind up in the NFC championship game against Seattle instead of L.A. Instead, he dropped it. The Bears had 29 dropped passes last year and some of that involves luck.

More than anything else, there were numerous points in the season when they had bad fortune involving officials. Officials completely botched a play at the end of the first half against Detroit, stopping the clock when it should have kept running and Detroit should have gone in leading by seven or 10 and not 14. A second-half blowout ensued. It's tough to say what happens with a one-touchdown lead in the second half. Detroit didn't blow them out in Chicago later, so you'd have to think it would have been closer.

Game officials and the Bears

One way the Bears can be much more fortunate than last year, or even the year before or the year before that is if they can get more calls from officials.

To some, it's always going to sound like whining when players, fans, media, or anyone complains about officials' calls. However, the Bears, and especially Williams, have not been looked upon with kindness by NFL flag throwers.

Bears opponents have been flagged only twice in Williams' regular-season games for roughing the passer. NFLpenalties.com tracks this and says none have been called. This is a mistake. Minnesota's Ivan Pace Jr. received one for roughing the passer in the Vikings' season-opening win last year over the Bears. Also, Mario Edwards Jr. was hit with this penalty in Williams' second game in 2024.

This might not sound overly shocking, except you must consider William held the ball longer than any other passer in the past two seasons and was hit so many times as a rookie that maybe only America's punching bag, Caitlin Clark, gets hit more. Getting sacked 68 times in one season is pretty rough. When you're hit so many times, sometime, somewhere, it seems realistic to expect more than two roughing-the-passer penalties.

Officials haven't exactly smiled on Green Bay quarterback Jordan love with late-hit flags in three seasons, either. That's only a slightly lower rate than Williams.

Such low numbers are anything but common. For instance, Detroit has benefited from 23 opposing roughing-the-passer penalties in Jared Goff's five seasons as Lions starter. Minnesota had Kirk Cousins as starter from 2019-23. and in those five seasons there were 22 roughing-the-passer penalties against Vikings opponents.

Outside of the NFC, Kansas City opponents often complain about Patrick Mahomes and his team getting all the calls. There's a good reason. According to NFLpenalties.com, Mahomes has been a starter since 2018 and there have been 35 roughing-the-passer penalties against Chiefs opponents in that period. It can't hurt to have that occasional 15-yard boost, especially when you've got such an explosive offense.

This isn't just Williams suffering this fate in Chicago. No Bears quarterback can seem to get that call.

Tyson Bagent hasn't played significant time since 2023, but when he started four games and played in another there were no roughing-the-passer calls walked off against opponents. And in 2023 when Justin Fields was Bears starter there were none called on Bears opponents, either.

And who is it exactly that lives the charmed life?

It's penalties, period

Then there are the statistics beaten about ever since last year ended and they need to be discussed again and again. The Bears rarely benefit from flags, either their way or against opponents.

Their were a league-low 678 yards in penalties walked off against Bears opponents in 2025.

The Rams lived charmed lives with plus-285 yards in total penalty yardage differential, and the Bengals were second, 81 yards behind them. Coincidentally, the world champion Seahawks had the third-best penalty differential in the league at plus-133. The Bears were next to last with minus-292 yards. Only Denver had a worse penalty differential at -306 in 2025.

The odds would seem to favor the Bears getting back near the middle of the pack in penalties flagged and those flagged on their opponents, or in differential.

However, this seemed logical after 2023. That year they had the worst differential in the league at minus-323 yards. They only improved to 23rd in 2024, and then they were next to last in 2025. The last time the Bears had a positive penalty differential was in 2020 when they were at +84 yards.

In 2023 when the Bears had the worst differential, the total was 84 yards lower than the differential for 31st-ranked Denver. That was the biggest difference between any teams in the league and it's the difference between the teams ranked last and next to last. The conspiracy theorists in Chicago could easily look at something like this and have a ball with it, especially when it has continued on through 2025. It really does look like they had something against one team.

Over the last five years, the Bears have the worst total differential for penalties in the NFL at minus-853 yards, without a single season of positive differential.

It's often argued sloppy play and/or poor talent lead to penalties. No doubt recent Bears teams have had their share of this. Overmatched teams can commit penalties. Teams not challenged can commit fewer. At least this is often argued by supporters of NFL officials.

The Bears were 11-6 last year, not 6-11 but still couldn't get close to the plus side of the ledger. Besides, statistics don't support better teams getting fewer penalties and opponents getting more in general. If they did, how did Denver get into the bottom spot for differential last year as a final four team in the playoffs?

Last year the three teams whose opponents got flagged for most penalty yards were the Giants, Cowboys and Commanders. There weren't too many postseason games between those three teams. There weren't many wins, period. Giants opponents almost had twice as many yards (1,143) walked off against them over the course of the season as Bears opponents.

Maybe it's just something about Dan Campbell and his disciples that irks officials when they see Ben Johnson. Who knows, because Detroit opponents had the second-fewest yards walked off against them last year with 701.

Will it all change?

Either way, when talking about being lucky or having too much good luck last year, the Bears seem to be a team in line for good luck considering how penalties have fallen in their games since 2020.

So much of this depends on the officiating crews themselves. Some crews can't help themselves. They think fans came to watch flags thrown. Others let everything go.

Here are the crews who were flag happy in 2025, listed by their head official, total flags on the year and average penalties per game.

Remember the names when the Bears play in 2026. These guys love throwing that flag, except, it seems, when it's Williiams getting hit.

Head official, penalties, average called per game

1. Alex Moore 258, 16.1

2. Adrian Hill 214 14.3

3. Carl Cheffers 242, 14.2

4. Shawn Hochuli 236 13.8

5. Bill Vinovich 230 13.5

6. Brad Rogers 213 13.3

7. Clete Blakeman 218 12.8

8. Ron Torbert 211 12.4

9. Alex Kemp 210 12.3

10. Clay Martin 205 12.1
Source: NFLpenalties.com

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.

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