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How Iceman Handles Bucs' Heat Seems the Big Unanswered Bears Question

Whether the Bears QB is effective against blitzes like Tampa Bay uses is open to debate as there are numbers suggesting both brilliance and weakness.
Gene Chamberlain|
Caleb Williams eyeballs the Seattle defense as he calls out signals in Monday night's Bears win.
Caleb Williams eyeballs the Seattle defense as he calls out signals in Monday night's Bears win. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

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Chicago Bears

It's possible Caleb Williams hasn't lined up against a defense so consumed with blitzing or pressuring the line of scrimmage since the Bears lost at home to Minnesota in Week 2, 9-3.

The ability of the Bears quarterback under pressure has been bandied about by the talking heads at ESPN and Fox all week with some concluding Williams can't handle pressure. They see the iceman melting down under heat. The statistics they throw around sound impressive but the real value of those is in question.

In truth, Williams has an EPA of .14 per play when blitzed and that's eighth among NFL starting quarterbacks according to Sumer Sports analytics. When pressured, no starting quarterback in the NFL has a higher EPA per play than Williams at .008. His success rate on plays when pressured in seventh best, and combined with his high EPA rank it suggests he creates big plays under pressire.

Williams should be able to stand in or move around and beat a blitz because he has faced many of them. Last year, he saw blitzes on 174 plays. That was the most in the NFL, per Pro Football Reference.

Tampa Bay's heat looks different

The pressure the Bears will see from Tampa Bay and coach Todd Bowles is a little different than what the saw from the Vikings earlier.

“Chaos," is how coach Ben Johnson described it. "I think that's what stands out. I think he's always defended the run really well, and whenever you play single high to the rate that he does, it's different than what we've seen earlier this year.

"A lot of these teams were playing shell and two high (safeties), and he's predominantly single high, and I think that always gives you an extra defender in the box that you've got to account for. So schematically, it's very challenging to run the ball, and then when you have the talent on the defensive line and in the linebacker crew that they have, those are tough yards to come by."

The single high also invites big plays by opposing quarterbacks.

It's the same old same old of staying in manageable down-and-distance situations.

"Whether it's second and long or third down, that's where he draws up all these exotics and creates a lot of issues for the quarterback," Johnson said of Bowles. "I think the linebackers are doing a great job just sniffing out pass concepts and understanding what windows to be in.

"He mixes up man and zone, and I think (safety) Antoine Winfield, he's a ballhawk back there. And then when he comes down, he'll light you up as well in the running game. So it's a good mix of talent, and then the scheme certainly is coming from all angles. So you try to be as sound as you possibly can.”

The Buccaneers allowed more than 17 points only once in their last five games, yet, they lost all five games they played against teams with winning records and their three wins came against teams with three wins each. They lead the league in takeaways with 16, half coming against three-win opponents in their last two games.

"They do a great job," Bears offensive coordinator Press Taylor said. "But then the structure, the way they play, the way they shed blocks, the fundamentals, it's a good tackling unit in the core. They present a lot of different looks, and a lot of variety."

Williams explained the 0-4 start by the Buccaneers and more than 26 points a game allowed in those by simply being out of sorts following the dislocated thumb their quarterback, Baker Mayfield suffered.

It affected the Bucs' defense when the offense didn't have its passer, he said. He should know. Something similar happened to the Bears without Williams against Green Bay. Tampa has made corrections and is rolling defensively. The question is whether they can manage pressure on a quarterback some people seem to think will bend or fold under it.

"You find your flow, you find out what works well, you find out what doesn't, and then you make corrections," he said.

No quarterback does thrive under pass rush pressure but the ones who can punish the defense enough for gambling will enjoy the most success.

Williams never got to win that game against Minnesota when he was pressured so much because he suffered an injury with the Bears on the verge of going ahead in the fourth quarter. They also fumbled at their own 1, which never helps.

It's time for another pressure test but the really impactful numbers so far suggest he can hold up.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.

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