Bear Digest

Matching up for Bears against Rams becomes matter of pick your poison

The Rams' receivers and passing game have big advantages over Bears coverage and they enjoy good edges at other spots, as well.
Gene Chamberlain|
Jared Verse chases Caleb Williams out of the pocket in last year's Bears and Rams game.
Jared Verse chases Caleb Williams out of the pocket in last year's Bears and Rams game. | Matt Marton-Imagn Images

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Chicago Bears

The statistics of Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford when facing the blitz were brought Wednesday to the attention of Bears coach Ben Johnson.

Stafford has the highest EPA, expected points added, of anyone in the league when blitzed. Pressuring him almost becomes a matter of hoping your front four gets it done somehow so your secondary can stay at full force.

"I think his numbers versus everything's pretty good this year," Johnson said. "He's playing at an MVP level. I think that that's going to be our challenge. We’ve got to have guys step up here this week both up front and on the back end to make things as difficult as we possibly can for him.

"Whether that's bring pressure, whether that's play coverage and depend on our front four to get after him, it's one of those things where it's going to take everybody."

That could also mean the offense. The best way to keep Stafford and the offense under control would be to have them on the bench while the Bears are running the ball and controlling the clock.

While Stafford is always a threat, this is especially the case now  because of his surrounding cast. Analytics like his EPA aren't the only numbers saying the Rams are far more dangerous than even their 13-5 record says.

Here are the toughest matchups the Bears face in Sunday's 5:30 p.m. divisional playoff game.

C Drew Dalman vs. NT Poona Ford

Dalman is in the Pro Bowl and has a pass block win rate of 96% according to ESPN. However, the 6-foot-3, 301-pounder will have to deal with a rolling tree tree stump. Ford is just 5-11, but at 314 is a powerful force driving against the Bears offensive line. Pro Football Focus has him graded fourth in the league among interior defensive linemen and fifth as a run stopper. He doesn't get many sacks, with just two, but PFF has him 14th as an interior pass rusher and has him at 30 pressures. Pressures are recorded differently by analytics sites. For instance, Pro Football Reference/Stathead has him at nine pressures. Regardless, this is a real challenge for Dalman, particularly because Ford has company with 3-technique Braden Fiske coming into his own and Kobie Turner being graded high, as well. They're 12th against the run and allowed the fewest rushing TDs in the league (8) for a reason.

T Theo Benedet vs. Edge Jared Verse

Verse is another whose overall stats don't necessarily say the same thing analytics do. He has only 7 1/2 sacks but has a phenomenal 80 pressures according to PFF, while PFR/Stathead says 36 pressures, or three more than last year as a rookie when he had just 4 1/2 sacks. At 6-4, 265, Verse is very powerful and drives back tackles like a more stout end 20 pounds heavier would, then releases rapidly to the QB. He also has the speed to get around the edge. Benedet dos have an 81% run block win rate, which ESPN says is fourth best in the league. But his pass blocking is the potential problem. The Bears haven't even said he'll start for sure over Braxton Jones as Ozzy Trapilo's injury replacement, but he did take over the job from Jones earlier this season on merit. So this much must be assumed.

CB Jaylon Johnson vs. WR Puka Nacua

For the Bears, a better matchup might be Tyrique Stevenson on Nacua physically because he's taller and much more physical, as one of the best run-stopping cornerbacks in the league. However, they'll likely stick with Johnson, who has a passer rating against of 86.1 according to PFF but hasn't been providing coverage nearly as effectively as prior to his core muscle surgery. Johnson is graded 72nd among 114 cornerbacks PFF analyzed, and 74th in pass coverage. Nacua is having a phenomenal year, ranking No. 1 in the NFL according to PFF. The 6-2, 216-pounder is leading the NFL with 129 catches on 166 targets and with 80 first downs and 107.2 yards per game. He has 10 touchdown catches and has had double-digit catches in three of his last four games, seven for the season. One possibility here for the Bears is Nacua's reliance on technique to get open over speed. Johnson's strength is as a technician himself.

CB Nahshon Wright vs. WR Davante Adams

In past seasons, Adams and Jaylon Johnson were a matchup to follow, dating back to Adams' time in Green Bay. But the Rams have deployed him more to the side of the field where Wright would be. The 6-foot-4 Wright is graded 57th out of 114 cornerbacks and 48th in pass coverage. He had a run of interceptions or forced or recovered fumbles earlier but hasn't had a pick in six games and has been around a takeaway only once in those games, a forced fumble near the goal line against the Packers in Week 16. Adams is 33 now and enjoying being back in a high-functioning offense after he had rejoined Aaron Rodgers in New York briefly. Adams leads the NFL in TD catches with 14 and is graded the 11th best receiver by PFF.

DT Gervon Dexter vs. RG Kevin Dotson

There is a slight injury risk with Dotson this week but it doesn't appear likely to stop him considering the importance of the game. Dotson, a former Detroit Lion, is graded third among guards in the NFL according to PFF and third as a run blocker. Dexter is graded 72nd overall out of 134 interior defensive lineman. His strength is rushing the passer, coming in 20th in PFF rankings there, but is 107th of 134 as a run defender and this is Dotson's strength. The Bears would have Andrew Billings in on some rushing downs instead, but can the Bears really lean too much on a run plug when the Rams have one of the most potent passing games, if not the best?

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.