Analytics reveal warning signs for Bears despite their impressive 9-3 start

Despite the Chicago Bears’ impressive 9-3 record, key analytics point to areas of concern that could impact their push toward the postseason. Here’s what the numbers reveal.

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The Chicago Bears are 9-3 and in first place in the NFC North. Even better, they're the current No. 1 seed in the NFC as the calendar flips to December.

The Bears' convincing win over the Philadelphia Eagles on Black Friday has helped flip the narrative around this team from one heavily tilted toward pretenders to one that now finally considers Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams as contenders.

But these are the Chicago Bears, after all. And it's inevitable that there will be an analyst or two who highlight reasons for concern despite such an incredible first 12 games of 2025.

The Athletic's Mike Sando is one of them.

To be fair, Sando gave the Bears plenty of flowers in his Pick Six column, but he did point to some data that is a bit alarming.

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"All signs point to the Bears' record being better than the team itself," Sando wrote. "Chicago's point differential (+6) is third-worst among 376 teams with nine victories in their first 12 games, per Pro Football Reference. The Bears are tied for third in the NFL win rate (.750) but only 16th in average point margin. Luck plays some role in the Bears going 4-1 in games decided by three or fewer points (their record was 1-5 in such games last season).

"The Bears rank lower when we adjust their point margin to the opponent. Chicago's plus-9 margin against Philadelphia was the second-best by any team against the Eagles this season, but that was not the norm. If we take the Bears' point margin rank against every team they have faced this season, the average would be 7.1. That is tied with Miami for 22nd in the league, well behind Green Bay (4.8, which is seventh — a lower number is better) and Detroit (5.4, which is 10th)."

The pessimist would say that the fact that the Bears are winning one-score games means they're a play or two from having far fewer than nine wins. However, the optimist would argue that those one-score wins are proof that Chicago knows how to close games, make clutch plays, and has matured into a team that can be counted on in high-pressure moments.

Perception is reality in the NFL. And after Week 13's dominant win over the Philadelphia Eagles, the perception around the Chicago Bears is more optimistic than ever.

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