The Rams are the Bears toughest remaining obstacle to a Super Bowl appearance

The Bears' Divisional Round matchup against the Rams will be their toughest test on the road to the Super Bowl.

Jan 10, 2026; Charlotte, NC, USA; Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) reacts in the first half during the NFC Wild Card Round game at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

The final four teams in the NFC include three teams from the NFC West.. and the Chicago Bears. Just how everyone drew it up!

Many believe Chicago's Cinderella run could come to an end on Sunday night. Despite the frigid temperatures and the fact that the Rams aren't used to them (the game will be in the single digits, and their coldest game to date this season was 35 degrees), they're still favored by 3.5 points on the road for the Divisional Round matchup.

Am I surprised by the Bears being underdogs in a game that should suit them much better? Honestly, not really. The Rams are one of the league's best teams. They're also used to playing in big games. They've been in the Divisional Round in four of head coach Sean McVay's first eight years at the helm, and they went 1-1 in their Super Bowl visits over that span.

Los Angeles looked like the most dominant team in the league through the first 15 weeks. They were sitting on top of the NFC with an 11-3 record and had won eight of their past nine games. While they stumbled a bit to close the season (they suffered back-to-back losses to the Seahawks and Falcons in Weeks 16 and 17), they still entered the playoffs as one of the league's most dangerous teams.

Their offense has been held under 21 points only twice this season (with the most recent occasion being their Week Six win over the Ravens), and they still managed to win both games. They led the league in total yards (6,709), passing yards (4,557), and had 28 more points (518) than the second-place team. They've been absolutely dominant on the offensive side of the ball.

If they have one weakness, it would be their secondary. However, that fact is somewhat mitigated by having one of the league's most dominant defensive lines, which finished top ten in sacks (47) during the regular season. They were also in the top ten in total points allowed (346) and have been stout against the run (they ranked 12th with 110.8 yards allowed per game).

Simply put, the Rams are one of the most well-rounded teams left in the running. They entered the postseason with the second-best odds (behind the top-seeded Seahawks) to make a Super Bowl run, and they still have the second-best odds today.

NFC Championship Favorites Heading into the Weekend, per Kalshi:

44% — Seahawks
36% — Rams
13% — Bears
10% — Niners pic.twitter.com/3Fsgde3upQ

— Kalshi Sports (@KalshiSports) January 16, 2026

The Bears, meanwhile, have the second-worst odds in the NFC (not that they care, though). The only team with worse odds is the sixth-seeded 49ers, whom they took down to the wire in their own stadium three weeks ago. Not only did San Francisco lose their best pass-catcher, George Kittle, in their Wild Card matchup against the Eagles, but they also wouldn't benefit from homefield advantage if they were to move on to the NFC Championship Game. In fact, if they and the Bears do so, then Chicago would welcome another warm-weather team to chilly Soldier Field for the second straight week.

With the way the crowd (and Caleb Williams) took over last week's game against Green Bay, it's hard not to feel good about the Bears' chances in that scenario.

Chicago would have a much more difficult matchup going on the road to Seattle if they take care of business against the 49ers this week. However, I think there are a few different factors that also make them a less daunting opponent than the Rams.

For starters, the Seahawks have the worst remaining quarterback in the conference. Outside of the Week 16 win against the Rams, he has a reputation for crumbling in big games when the pressure is on. It's tough to find a more significant pressure cooker scenario than the NFC Championship Game with the Super Bowl on the horizon.

Darnold's health is another major factor in this situation. He popped up on the injury report this week with an oblique injury. While I expect him to gut it out (no pun intended...), the fact that he's less than 100% significantly hurts Seattle's chances. There is no way around it.

The #Seahawks have added QB Sam Darnold (oblique) to the injury report. He’s listed as questionable.

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) January 15, 2026

While Seattle used to be one of the toughest environments for opposing offenses to play in, that hasn't really been the case this season. Not only do the Seahawks have a worse record at home (6-2 as opposed to 8-1 on the road), but their defense has played worse at home this season. They've given up an average of 20.3 points at home and only 14.4 points on the road.

The Bears' offense went into Philadelphia, which is one of the most raucous environments in the NFL, and operated smoothly this season. They came away with a 24-15 win over the defending Super Bowl champs in the process. I honestly don't see why they couldn't do the same in Seattle.

Are the Rams world beaters? Absolutely not. In fact, I plan on writing another post outlining reasons for optimism heading into Sunday night's game later today. However, I do believe they are their toughest remaining test in the conference.

With that said, if the Bears do come out on top against Los Angeles, then I think their odds of representing the NFC in the Super Bowl will go way up. The 49ers and Seahawks are both more flawed (and beat up).

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

More Chicago Bears News

• The Bears start a new chapter of the rivalry against Green Bay with Wild Card win

• Caleb Williams just did something that a Bears QB hasn't done since 1991

• Sean McVay's history in Chicago is a reason for optimism in the Divisional Round

• Two Bears land in the top five of PFF's rookie rankings for the Wild Card Round

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