Bear Digest

Quantifying what return of Jaylon Johnson and other Bears can mean

Analysis: The takeaways have been nice for this Bears defense but they're paying a high price to make them, one that could be much lower in the near future.
Gene Chamberlain|
Nahshon Wright comes down with the interception against the Vikings. The Bears have needed takeaways because of their high rate of big plays allowed.
Nahshon Wright comes down with the interception against the Vikings. The Bears have needed takeaways because of their high rate of big plays allowed. | Brad Rempel-Imagn Images

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Chicago Bears

The possibility of Jaylon Johnson, Kyler Gordon and T.J. Edwards soon returning to the Bears defense is bigger than simply getting three starters back.

They're key performers to the point where the team rewarded each with a new contract.

However, more importantly, they can drastically alter how Dennis Allen deploys his defense from play to play enough to generate more positive results. Maybe the offense then doesn't need so many spectacular finishes.

The Bears are leading the NFL in takeaways with 22 and interceptions with 15. What more could they get from these three that they already don't have?

The competition level is going to increase greatly in coming weeks, but it's difficult to gauge something like that can't accurately.

What can change is the amount of big plays their defense allows and risks they taken. They won't need to gamble as much with more dependable players on the field. It might mean fewer takeaways but more three-and-outs or more drives aborted by opponents. 

Much has been made about how the Bears offense has been at the top or near the top in explosive plays. They're No. 1 in total explosive plays.

However, they need to be because their defense has the worst rate in the NFL in terms of giving up explosive plays.

An explosive offensive play is runs of 10 yards or longer and passes of 20 yards or longer. The Bears defense has an explosive play rate allowed of 8%, according to Sharp Football Analysis. The Bears have the highest rate allowed in the NFL and it's not close.

The Vikings have the next worst rate, way back at 7.3%.

Part of the reason the Packers are treated with more reverence by NFL analysts and the Bears are looked at as the proverbial "red-headed step child" is this stat. Green Bay's defense leads the league at 3.7% explosive plays allowed.

The turnovers have kept the Bears in the top 10 in fewest points allowed per drive (10th, 2.3 per drive), but the Bears need to gamble much more than is ideal in order to generate three-and-outs and takeaways, and they  put themselves at risk for giving up big plays. This much is shown by that extremely high rate of big plays allowed.

They're blitzing an excessive amount and have given up the fourth-most touchdown passes in the league as a result of all the gambling.

Their blitz rate has been 10th highest (27.9%) and their man-to-man coverage rate of 31.7% is probably a little higher than they would like, although all of that would be lower if they had a bit better four-man pass rush as they generate only the 29th highest pressure rate (30.5%) despite all of their blitzes.

The result of all of this gambling and the big plays allowed is a defensive EPA among the league's worst. They're bottom 10 in defensive EPA and this shouldn't be the case if they're generating so many takeaways.

It's tough to take the Bears seriously when they're playing defense this way. The company they're keeping with so poor of a defensive EPA is teams like the Bengals (last -0.17), the Cowboys (31st, -0.12), the Commanders (30th, -0.12) and Giants (29th -0.11). In fact, the Bears have the ninth-worst defensive EPA (-0.03). Only one team with a winning record has a worse defensive EPA/play than the Bears and that the 49ers (28th, -0.08).

When Johnson, Gordon and Edwards are back healthy and working in well, communicating and tightening up the ship so to speak, the risks will come down, the TD passes should drop and the points will come down as their defense rises.

Nahshon Wright and C.J. Gardner-Johnson have performed admirably but the Bears defense was intended to rely on Jaylon Johnson, Gordon and Edwards and their salary cap/payroll says so. The numbers will quickly show why, at a time when they begin playing more potent offenses than teams like the Giants and Vikings have.

Perhaps in the future they won't be giving up late touchdowns like they did against Cincinnati and Minnesota, and Caleb Williams won't need to put on his cape so often.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.