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Bear Digest

Setting the Bar for Ben Johnson's 2026 Chicago Bears Offense

Despite so much talk of Bears regression during the offseason, it appears inevitable Caleb Williams and their offense will step forward to hit some big numbers.
Gene Chamberlain|
What would improved completion percentage by Caleb Williams mean for the Bears offense? Plenty.
What would improved completion percentage by Caleb Williams mean for the Bears offense? Plenty. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

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Chicago Bears

Every NFL player sets personal goals for seasons and then most refuse to acknowledge what they are beyond winning the Super Bowl.

It's easier when no one knows the point where disappointment meets success, and there's no sense putting undue pressure on yourself. Fortunately, there are no bounds for fans or media as they follow where their team is going.

The Bears and their fans found out last year what it took as a team and individually to come within two wins of the Super Bowl. Here is where the arbitrary bar is set for the 2026 Chicago Bears on offense in Year 2 of the Caleb Williams-Ben Johnson marriage.

D'Andre Swift

It's 1,100 yards, 12 touchdown runs, 50 receptions and three TD catches. While all but the catch total would constitute career highs, there's no reason to think he can't hit these with ease. He missed a game and had 1,087 yards last year. Besides the fact it's a contract year, few realize Swift's longest run last year was only 25 yards. And they still finished third in rushing. The Bears' running game was entirely effective but their longest run was only 39 yards by Kyle Monangai. The Bears ranke only 28th among teams for longest run last year. Expect bigger and better for Swift.

Kyle Monangai

For the backup running back, 700 yards is a great goal for Year 2. One more: Breaking two opponents' helmets this year, double last year's total.

Offensive line

The same bar as last year would be outstanding considering the changes made at center and left tackle. It's possible, since they did start the season with the same left tackle as this year before changing. Numerically it's 24 sacks allowed again, and the top three backs averaging 2.7 yards or better before contact.

Rome Odunze

Reaching 75 catches and 1,000 yards would be fine. Two better places to clear would be 10 touchdown catches and 80 receptions. The reason those look entirely possible is Odunze has had no receptions longer than 47 yards and last year none longer than 37 despite being their X-type receiver threat. Yet, he still averages 14.2 per catch for his career. Much bigger gains should occur as his catch total increases. The percentages say its possible merely by increasing his reception percentage. He has only a 51.3% career catches per target. Last year was only at 48.9%. Put him at 60% receptions/target and he'll rocket ahead.

Luther Burden III

Name your number. Burden should have no problem beating it because last year he had 53% of the offensive reps in a game only five times. He caught the shorter, more open throws and had yards after catch. His bar should be 90 receptions and 1,050 yards with seven touchdowns. Although he finished third in the NFL in yards per route run last year, Burden made only two TD catches. That could and must change.

Colston Loveland

Loveland's aim should be eight TD catches and 850 yards. Getting to 1,000 yards would be difficult because of target proliferation. For example, Sam LaPorta had 86 catches, 120 targets and 889 yards as a rookie in Johnson's offense. But his target share dropped drastically to 83 with only one less game played in 2024, mainly because Jameson Williams started eating up more targets as an entirely healthy receiver. What Loveland needs to really increase is his first down catches. He had 36 last year and that was only tied for 40th in the league. The Bears' high was 37 by Odunze. Loveland should be the money receiver for Williams with at least 51 first-down receptions. That would have put him in the top 10 last year.

Kalif Raymond

Considering he's replacing Olamide Zaccheaus, one dropped pass as the bar would be fantastic. That would beat the smithereens out of Zaccheaus' total. The number Raymond should have no problem topping is his long catch of 30 yards last year in Detroit. He's going to get plenty of room to catch and run playing with this receiver group. Considering his age, 32 catches and 420 yards would be fine numbers, with decreased participation as Zavion Thomas learns the NFL game.

Zavion Thomas

Could Thomas make the Pro Bowl as a rookie? It's not impossible because of his special teams potential. Dallas' KaVontae Turpin made the Pro Bowl and second team All-Pro last year and averaged only 26.3 yards per kick return, 0.4 less than the Bears' Devin Duvernay. And Turpin only averaged 5.5 yards on 10 punt returns, far worse than Duvernay. Thomas is capable of much bigger numbers than both because of his speed/size. Turpin had 26 catches last year. Set Thomas at 30 catches, 28 yards per kick return and 11 per punt return. The smart money is on big return averages.

Cole Kmet

A high PFF blocking grade and four red-zone TD catches.

Caleb Williams

With so much emphasis on completion percentage, it has to improve. After all, what people fail to10 mention is he was already at 62.5% as a rookie. The 58.1% keeps getting dragged through the mud as if it's his norm. Now he knows the league, his own offense and his play caller. Put that one at 64%. If Williams is at 64%, the Bears finally have their 4,000 yard passer. Williams' goal should be 4,100 yards, 30 TDs, 1.2% interceptions (or his career average) and a passer rating of 100. The 100 might seem too high but it barely would have put him in the top 10 last year.

Ben Johnson


The natural progression for his offense says something much better for this season. In Detroit, his offenses were fifth in scoring the first two years and then first his final year. They were fourth in yardage, then third, and finally second. The passing game was eighth his first year, then second each of the next two seasons. His rushing attack went from 11th to fifth and then sixth.


Johnson's first Bears offense started out ninth in scoring, sixth in yards, 10th in passing and third in rushing. If you project improvement based on the improvement his second offense had in Detroit, the Bears need to be in the top five in everything.

One thing he couldn't entirely control was turnovers, and last year the Bears led the NFL in fewest turnovers committed. His first Lions offense also led the league in fewest turnovers, but they regressed to 23 turnovers from 15 total and finished with 19th fewest in his second year. Then they improved back to sixth fewest with 15 in his final year.

Will the Bears' fate be similar? Besides top five in every offensive category, they need to aim for 15 total turnovers, which would be worse than last year but keeps them near the top of the league.

All of these high bars for offensive players and the offense as a whole are necessary, because the bar for their defense is going to be a very low one on a week-to-week basis.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.

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