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Setting the Ceiling and Floor for Bears Rookie Receiver Zavion Thomas

Bears rookies report Saturday to Halas Hall and the one whose role looks like the biggest mystery could meet with wide-ranging expectations.
Gene Chamberlain|
Bears rookie third-round wide receiver Zavion Thomas plays catch in warmups during offseason work. Thomas' exact role will be one that builds from Day 1 of camp.
Bears rookie third-round wide receiver Zavion Thomas plays catch in warmups during offseason work. Thomas' exact role will be one that builds from Day 1 of camp. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Of all the rookies coming into Bears camp on Saturday when the new recruits report to Halas Hall, third-round pick Zavion Thomas might be the biggest man of mystery.

What Thomas can do for the Bears and what they plan to do with him are great unknowns.

The good news for Thomas is he doesn't need to be something definitive and productive immediately, which lets him develop. This could be necessary.

"I mean, none of these (rookie) guys are finished products," Bears offensive coordinator Press Taylor said. "So, it's really just growing as an entire player.

"With him it's going to be different. He goes from Mississippi State to LSU, learns a new system, comes here, learns a new system that's probably a little bit more in-depth than he's ever been a part of. And then you're doing it and it continues. Every single day there's a new install, we're rolling pretty quick. So they're kind of drinking from a fire hose early on. You want to see when it, what point in training camp where it hits that they kind of, they're confident and then you start to see their skill set really flourish."

The rookie average for wide receivers drafted in Round 3 over the last three drafts is 22 catches, 290 yards and two touchdowns. Those numbers might look disappointing to some who have visions of grandeur for Thomas because of his 4.28-second speed in the 40, but the law of rookie receiver averages says he'll have to watch and learn much of this year.

Best and worst expectations

There were 17 third-round receivers in the last three drafts and Houston's Tank Dell came away with the best numbers at 47 receptions, 709 yards and seven TD catches. He also tossed in 11 punt returns for 100 yards and 44 yards on two kick returns. He hasn't had numbers that good since his rookie year but proved a player with the speed and quickness can come in immediately and have an impact.

This might be considered the ceiling for Thomas, but he would only get there if the Bears had injuries because there are several players ahead of him.

The floor is a player who comes in behind Kalif Raymond, learns, gets some playing time in four- or five-wide receiver sets or in special situations when the Bears want to use his extreme speed either out of the backfield or on short passes or screens. Maybe it would even be on handoffs. He'd be challenged to hit that 22-catch number in this case.

"He's not a gadget guy, but he's unique in his ability to have enough speed to take it over the top, make defenses hurt that way," coach Ben Johnson said.

One man's key player is another man's gadget guy. It just depends on who is doing the play design.

"But also inside the numbers, outside the numbers, he's got elite quickness," Johnson said. "You get the ball in his hands, he's excellent running after catch. So he's very, very versatile and I think he's gonna be a huge part of what we do."

An example of special use players among recent receivers in Round 3 was Detroit's Isaac TeSlaa last year. He had 16 catches for 239 yards but the Lions made sure to have him available in the red zone and special down and distances and six of his 16 catches went for touchdowns. The Bears wouldn't use Thomas the exact same way because his strength isn't length and verticality like TeSlaa's is, but it would be a limited use or targeted use. So, numbers around one catch a game and 200-250 yards might be more of the floor.

Its the speed factor that allows Thomas' floor to be a little higher, because the Bears can get great use from him as a returner on kicks and possibly even on punts.

If a team can't find a way to make use of a 4.28-second 40 time for a rookie receiver, they either have one of the great, proven receiver groups in the league or the rookie just doesn't understand his role. The latter is more likely for a receiver than at many positions, especially for third-round rookies.

What must be remembered is that no third-round receiver is a sure thing, especially early in their career. They could bud later, though.

Third-rounders' lower expectations

Two years ago there were five third-round receivers drafted and after two years none of those players has averaged 25 receptions a year. Jalen McMillan is easily the most successful of that draft class for Tampa Bay with 49 catches for 639 yards and eight touchdowns.

The 2025 rookie class of receivers averaged 16 catches, 203 yards and two TDs. If not for TeSlaa's six TDs as a limited-use receiver, they would have had six TDs between the other five.

Either way, the ceiling is always higher for a receiver with Thomas' speed but that would be over the course of his career and after development.

That third-round receiver group from three years ago was better than most over the years. Between Tre Tucker, Michael Wilson, Josh Downs and Dell, they have averaged 600 yards a season. Low numbers as rookies can mean something better as they advance, and this is something the Bears will have to keep in mind with Thomas.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.

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