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Where Caleb Williams' Greatest Strength Has Actually Been a Weak Area

Analytics say something about where Caleb Williams has been at his best and worst and the data runs contrary to the popular narrative.
Gene Chamberlain|
Throwing out of the pocket is supposedly Caleb Williams' strength, or is it?
Throwing out of the pocket is supposedly Caleb Williams' strength, or is it? | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

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Chicago Bears

Caleb Williams' progress from Year 1 in Ben Johnson's offense to Year 2 remains a hot topic and should, because it's likely to be the determining factor in whether the Bears become a playoff team again.

It was the topic du jour for The Athletic Football Show featuring Robert Mays, formerly of the Ringer. Mays and Co. produced an even-handed look at the need for Williams to be better, even if some of the pieces of the podcast distributed over "X" looked somewhat negative. They really weren't, and the bottom line to the show was how the Bears and Williams must be better this year but have the capability of getting there.

The most interesting part of the analysis regarded Williams and his ability outside the pocket. Mays pointed out how all of the attention comes Williams' way for his ability to create outside the pocket, yet it's not what he was best at last year. In fact, it was far from his best play when he went outside the tackles to throw.

"If you're trying to make an argument for areas of this offense that can get a ton better this year that were actually very bad last year, we think about and talk about Caleb Williams as this kind of schoolyard creative out-of-structure player," Mays said. "The Bears were terrible in those situations last year."

He added, "It's kind of shocking when you look at the numbers."

Going outside the pocket

Terrible is probably an exaggeration. Some of the biggest plays of their season were made when Williams held the ball went outside the pocket and did something ridiculous, or retreated 40 yards and then threw it. However, Mays has a point and he cited some NFL Next Gen Stats numbers to support it.

There was no problem with Williams once he got outside the pocket and then ran with it, because he had .6 EPA per play when he scrambled. The win over the Giants was a classic example of this. He was top seven in the league in scrambling EPA for QBs.

However, when Williams left the pocket and threw was when real problems did occur. He had a negative-.14 EPA and was 20 of 59 passing with a 30.5% success rate. All of these numbers were near the bottom of qualifying passers in the league.

"This idea, like, all the good stuff is happening when he's doing the wild, insane (dung) that's completely unsustainable, that's actually not true," Mays said. "That's when all the bad stuff is happening."

Mays maintains this is something the Bears do realize and he is correct.

During Bears minicamp, coach Ben Johnson was asked about the scramble drills and getting better when Williams moves outside the pocket.

“It's certainly an area that we look to emphasize," Johnson said. "Particularly, we talked about yesterday, Caleb's ability to improv and get out of structure when necessary. I think we have great examples every single day of the route runners coming alive and making good decisions in terms of how they can separate and find space.

"That'll be another thing that we continue to push forward. I think once again, the coaching staff, the offensive coaching staff, (offensive Coordinator) Press (Taylor), and the rest of those guys have done a really nice job showing them examples of what's good, what we're not looking to do. And those guys have taken it to the next level.”

Bears are fixing the problem

They worked at this during some of the offseason practices and no doubt will continue it during training camp. Mays pointed out how not all of the problem has to do with Williams and he'

s correct here, as receivers dropped passes or failed to gain separation at various points all season.

Williams had a 63.4% completion rate in the pockiet and 45.6% success rate, and as Mays said, it's above average in both cases. It's the trademark Williams playground football that is getting in the way, as well as his decision making. The panel discussion came to the conclusion Williams needs to take fewer risks when he does get out of the pocket and take the yards that are available by dumping it to D'Andre Swift or one of the tight ends.

In this respect, the Bears are already ahead of the game because this was what quarterbacks coach J.T. Barrett said they're trying to get Williams to do.

"There’s times where we could just work through our progression and get the ball out on time instead of having to create and extend plays," Barrett said during offseason work.

The Bears will need to improve in many ways this season because they did pull out a lot of games last year and can't expect that again. Then again, you don't expect to play the same schedule all over again the next year. Circumstances change, opponents and rosters change.

And the Bears shouldn't be so quick to dismiss the idea of Williams creating big plays outside the pocket. Just because his percentage of plays and successful plays was low doesn't mean he lacked the ability to do it. Trying to squash what he perceives as one of his strengths actually could limit their wins because he wouldn't even be attempting to make the big plays that won games a year ago.

This idea of limiting Williams' ventures isn't the answer. Instead, it's getting the receivers to work better with him when he is out of the pocket. It seems Johnson and staff are on their way to fixing this issue.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.

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