Bear Digest

Two good reasons Caleb Williams' greatest strength is diminished

Caleb Williams' knack for rallying the Bears over the course of this season is greatly diminished heading into Sunday's divisional playoff against Matthew Stafford and the Rams.
Gene Chamberlain|
Caleb Williams' comeback skills are no greater than Matthew Stafford's, and the extreme cold favors no one who must rally.
Caleb Williams' comeback skills are no greater than Matthew Stafford's, and the extreme cold favors no one who must rally. | Wm. Glasheen/USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images

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Chicago Bears

While going outside to shovel off the inch of white topping left by Mother Nature's icy hands overnight, the 7-degree temperature today made my hands hurt after only a few minutes.

It would have helped wearing gloves as common sense dictates, but being an idiot I didn't. Also, it was an experiment. What will this feel like tonight for the Bears as they try to come from behind yet again?

It is going to warm up slightly during the day to the low teens, but with a worse wind chill. Everyone needs to be smarter at the game and wear gloves, including receivers and maybe even Caleb Williams. At the least, he'll need a pocket hand warmer.

The cold weather might work against the Rams initially, but if Williams and the Bears' passing game must save the day with a rally like they have been doing, then forget it. That kind of cold is no one's friend except defenses and the gas company.

When it was -48 wind chill in the 1967 NFL Championship Game, Bart Starr had to sneak in for the winning Packers touchdown with 16 seconds left and no timeouts to pull it out. It was Dallas they had to rally to overcome. That's not exactly Nanook of the North or even Bud Grant. They were a warm-weather team. So the Packers had trouble handling those extremes just like Dallas.

Extreme cold might be tougher on warm-weather teams, but affects both, and especially teams living on the edge late in games so often like the Bears. The margin for error then is razor thin, maybe even a fourth-and-8 pass for 27 yards to Rome Odunze thin.

The thoughts about offenses being favored because their footing is better might be true, too, if this was the 1950s. However, there are heating coils beneath Soldier Field keeping the ground from freezing up like a rock. That is, provided the Chicago Park District paid the energy bill.

That is a big if.

Weather aside, Williams' skill set of being able to rally teams in the late-going has been proven repeatedly, seven times counting the regular season and playoffs.

Even here, however, the Bears do not really have an advantage.

He is facing one of the NFL's all-time kings of comeback in Matthew Stafford.

“Stafford's got a tremendous feel for the game, and I’ve been saying all along, he knows how to manipulate the defense," Ben Johnson said on Friday. "I do think he's got that knack for the dramatic as well.

"They've been in a number of one-score games this year and it seems like he does a great job of putting his offense and his team on his back and making those plays. I do see the similarities between the two (QBs) in crunch time.”

Williams' six fourth-quarter comebacks in the regular season ranked tied for fifth all time behind only four quarterbacks. Peyton Manning had seven in 2009 with the Colts and Derek Carr had seven in 2016 for the Raiders. Williams' postseason comeback against the Packers doesn't count on this total since it was postseason.

The all-time single-season leaders are Stafford with eight in 2016 with Detroit and Kirk Cousins with eight in 2022 with Minnesota.

The fourth-quarter comeback total Williams had is tied with eight other efforts.

Williams' six game-winning drives is only tied for 15th best and Stafford's eight that 2016 season is tied with Cousins' 2022 season total for most.

Only Tom Brady (58), Peyton Manning (54), Drew Brees (53) and Ben Roethlisberger (53) had more game-winning drives than Stafford has (50). Only Brady (46), Manning (43) and Roethlisberger (41) had more fourth-quarter comebacks than Stafford (39).

"I feel calm in those moments," Williams said. "I feel my conditioning is the best in those moments. That's really it. I feel that I'm the best in those moments because of what I've prepared to be in those moments and things like that.

"So, for myself, it's just next play, next play and next play. And then when you have to go make a play, it's life or death in those moments.”

Williams will be facing someone who feels the same way and has for a very long time now at the age of 37.

The best advice for the Bears and Williams would be to put themselves in situations where Stafford has to try to prove his comeback ability works in extreme cold, because it's unlikely everyone on his team is as skilled at such pressure or experienced with this kind of weather.

The Bears were already going to be up against it because of their tackle situation and the weather will only heighten their handicap while trying to rally.

Also, Williams might be the "Ice man" but he and the Bears should avoid being idiots and keep their hands warm because that kind of cold will not only make coming back difficult, but will actually make their hands hurt. But that's just common sense.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.