Bear Digest

Risky business for Bears looking past top picks' numbers dips

Analysis: Drops in production by their top five draft picks and especially their top two were issues the Bears felt they could live with on draft day.
Gene Chamberlain|
Luther Burden III makes a two-point conversion catch against Arkansas. The Bears were willing to look the other way on Burden's drop in stats his final year.
Luther Burden III makes a two-point conversion catch against Arkansas. The Bears were willing to look the other way on Burden's drop in stats his final year. | Denny Medley-Imagn Images

In this story:

Chicago Bears

Look at the Bears' draft class from a distance and it turns up one glaring fact at the top in terms of player performance.

GM Ryan Poles and his personnel department were willing to overlook last year's worse numbers by players to select them based on traits and also performances from the previous year.

Both first-round pick Colston Loveland and second-round pick Luther Burden III had 2023 catch totals far exceeding last year's. In fact, it even applies statistically to all of their first five draft picks to some extent.

Pro Football Focus tracked tackle Ozzy Trapilo at no sacks allowed in 2023 but two given up last year. Defensive lineman Shemar Turner had six sacks in 2023 but only two last year, and fourth-round linebacker Ruben Hyppolite II had a career-high solo tackles total of 47 in 2023, by far more than his next-best total equaled in 2024 (33).

The numbers on Trapilo, Turner and Hyppolite don't necessarily appear significant, especially Turner's as he was moved inside to tackle and had less opportunity to rush the passer.

Of course a team would like to see improvement year-over-year at a level of play where they should be at peak level when they're leaving.

In the case of Loveland and Burden, the numbers discrepancy is far greater from one year to the next and requires a bit of a leap of faith because their decline in production was linked to other players on their team.

Both players had quarterbacks who experienced issues last year and the numbers plummeted.

Loveland's drop from 56 catches to 45 could be explained largely due to his own shoulder injury, which cost him a few games and impacted what he could do. He still had more yardage (649) than in 2023 (582) but had a drop in touchdowns by one to four and his biggest decline came in yards per catch. After 14.7 and 14.4 yards per reception his first to years, Loveland looked more like your average tight end at 10.4 yards a catch.

The shoulder isn't the real issue.

“We feel good about it," Bears senior director of player personnel Jeff King said. "We’ve obviously been in contact with him throughout this process and feel good about where he’s at. We’re not going to risk anything here early, but we should be good to go by training camp."

So they might not see a lot from him on into June's practices. In a way, this could leave him like Kiran Amegadjie last year except then Amegdjie couldn't practice in training camp either.

The production decline is the real issue. Can that be gauged

The Bears obviously didn't want to spend time ripping on Michigan's quarterback Davis Warren or the Wolverines offense after coach Jim Harbaugh and also QB J.J. McCarthy left but the change obviously meant something stat-wise.

Warren threw more interceptions (9) than touchdowns (7) and for only 1,199 yards. They had only 1,678 passing yards and he had six interceptions in his first three games.

Burden's numbers went through the same sort of issues. Experienced Missouri QB Brady Cook suffered a high ankle sprain, then wrist and hand injuries. His stats dropped off to 2,535 yards passing and 62.6% completions a year after he threw for 3,913 yards and 66.1% completions. Cook, an undrafted free agent acquisition by the Jets, had a better completion percentage as a sophomore than in his final year.

How much did it affect what those two pass catchers are capable of and what the Bears can expect is more of a guess than a projection as a result of their final years in college.

"We spent a lot of time understanding the difficulties certain guys go through year-to-year as talent around them leaves," Poles said. "With (Loveland) we did feel like there was a level of consistency and that was a cool touch point for us too.

"I asked him, ‘How did you handle that, handle a younger quarterback or someone you didn’t have the greatest chemistry, or the same chemistry you had the year before.’ How he responded to that was really mature and showed good awareness, showed selflessness, it showed him being a team guy more than just him and his stats. Because they went down just a little bit, but you understood why.

"The way he just explained the whole thing was really cool.”

The ideal and easier way to bring a player into the NFL is after an outstanding final season. The production decline obviously didn't affect Loveland, who not only went 10th to the Bears but it was reported by Dan Wiederer of the Tribune that teams were interested in trying to trade up to get him.

On the other hand, it could have all been a factor in why Burden dropped into the second round after some saw him as  mid-first rounder.

Burden probably has the best thought behind this.

“It's pretty much behind me now, but it's always in the back of my head," Burden said. "Teams chose other people above me. So, I’ll see them.”

The Bears have had no problem banking on him being right, even if it seems a bit of a risk. They didn't have a problem with this throughout the early part of this year's draft process with anyone.

More Chicago Bears News

X: BearsOnSI

Published
Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.