Bear Digest

What analytics say about D'Andre Swift's chances at Bears success

A look at the deeper numbers in D'Andre Swift's career suggest something about why 2025 could look much different than 2024 in Chicago for him.
Gene Chamberlain|
D'Andre Swift's efficiency hasn't been the greatest but some moves by the Bears made could lead to a different result.
D'Andre Swift's efficiency hasn't been the greatest but some moves by the Bears made could lead to a different result. | Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

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Chicago Bears

Bears coach Ben Johnson loves his advanced statistics or analytics, based upon his appreciation for the expected points added metric as a key to success.

Johnson heaped praise upon running back D'Andre Swift all offseason, citing his past connection with the Bears running back from their time together in Detroit.

"Here's what I know about him; he is a fierce competitor, and that's what I love about him," Johnson said. "When the lights are bright, you're going to know exactly what you're going to get. If you tell him that you're going to need 1 yard, 4 yards, whatever that is, he's going to find a way to put his shoulder down and move the pile and get that done for you."

It's easy to wonder if Johnson really meant this based on the type of numbers he loves to rely upon, the analytics. Also, Johnson did demote Swift in Detroit and eventually the Lions signed David Montgomery while Swift went to the Eagles.

There are a few advanced numbers, however, that could indicate Johnson really meant everything positive he has said about Swift.

At least Swift and the Bears offense have to hope this because they've chosen to ignore almost all of the draft and all of free agency when forming their backfield for this season.

Last year Swift's season looks like a nightmare according to NFL Next Gen Stats. His -174 yards over expected was the worst total in the league among any back with at least 92 rushing attempts, as was his -0.69 rushing yards over expected per attempt and his 28.8 yards over expected percentage.

Swift was a very inefficient runner. Only Kenneth Walker and Nick Chubb came in with with worse numbers in terms of the NextGen Stat efficiency formula.

He also tied for 10th in amount of time (2.87 seconds) spent behind the line of scrimmage per play.

It all added up to total inefficiency even though he did run for 959 yards, the second largest total of his career.

Swift has rarely been a back with high efficiency numbers or high yardage over expected. However, the times when he has been better at these analytics give rise to the thought he might actually improve in these areas this season.

His best years in terms of efficiency came in Philadelphia, although the Eagles expected more and let him leave in free agency in favor of signing Saquon Barkley. Consider it a great decision by the Eagles, but not necessarily because Swift was bad. After all, it was Barkley replacing him.

In 2023 with the Eagles, Swift actually recorded the 10th highest efficiency rating in the league (3.58).

In 2022, he had been demoted to only 99 carries while Jamaal Williams had the bulk of the workload but both backs came in relatively similar in terms of the efficiency formula and were in the middle of the NFL pack.

The common theme here is Swift's two best years, in terms of Next Gen analytics, came in seasons when he had better offensive lines. Detroit had the offensive line under Johnson built into a force by midseason in 2022. In Philadelphia, Swift's better efficiency could definitely be attributed to being behind a formidable offensive line.

At least on paper, the Bears greatly improved their offensive line this year and it's been the contention of Ryan Poles all along that they don't necessarily need to trade for a back or sign another one.

Perhaps Poles is right. The analytics say they at least will have a better chance of unleashing Swift's speed and big-play ability now with better blocking up front.

None of this says a thing about Swift being a special back or someone who can lead the Bears into future success, but for this season it does at least say they won't be handicapped by inefficiency.

"What can I do? Everybody has an opinion," Swift said, when his inefficient first Bears season was brough up. "Everyone is entitled to their own opinion.

"My job is to come in here and continue to work. Like I said, I'm excited for this season. I know who I am and what I'm about, so that's all. Just thankful for another opportunity going into this season."

A better offensive line can make all the difference. Many runners can say this about the importance of their offensive line but in Swift's case there is real explosivelness waiting to be unbottled if he gets it.

The Bears have to hope they find his true identity is a breakaway runner behind an effective line rather than the inefficient runner of 2024 and at some other points in his career. When you base an offense on the running game and play-action passing, the season could depend on this.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.