Bear Digest

Ranking true potential Chicago Bears X-factors for 2025 season

Caleb Williams is only one of many X-factors that could impact the Bears' success this season and here's a ranking of those most likely to surface as big.

Gene Chamberlain

Caleb Williams hands off to D'Andre Swift during individual work at OTAs. Both are possible X-factors but are the biggest one for the Bears.
Caleb Williams hands off to D'Andre Swift during individual work at OTAs. Both are possible X-factors but are the biggest one for the Bears. / Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images
In this story:

The term "x factor" is a phrase from algebra that any high school math student knows means unknown.

However, for some reason the term has come to mean a factor that could greatly influence an outcome and the unknown aspect gets dropped.

This is distorting the original meaning. Suffice to say, in the NFL a team's "X-factor" is a player or other element that can influence the season or game greatly and is a surprise Pro Football Focus has called Caleb Williams the X-factor for this Bears season.

Duh.

Of course he's a major factor of influence. A quarterback always has to be the main factor in a team's success, or he can be the main factor in their failure. He handles the ball the most.

Williams can be an X-factor, at least in terms of how much he improves. Perhaps it simply needs to be worded differently, a bit more specifically, to be more convincing.

Here are the top potential X-factors ranked for the Bears in 2025.

5. Jaquan Brisker's Comeback

How much will it matter to the Bears defense to have Brisker back entirely healthy. That, in itself, is an unknown element because no one can know if he'll go through without another concussion after three in three years.

If he does so during a contract year, the impact on the defense could be tremendous. Brisker was one of their better run-support players from the secondary.

The defense collapsed against the run completely after the loss of Andrew Billings but if you track the number of yards allowed on the ground game by game it really began to dip when they lost Brisker. His presence can totally uplift the defense in two ways.

4. Gervon Dexter's Consistency

There is talk from the Bears about Dexter becoming a dominant player in the middle of the line, or all over it. Many don't realize it and probably wouldn't believe it, but Dexter was graded 28th out of 219 defensive tackles in the league last year. He already had jumped from 144th out of 215 in 2023.

The next step up would be to improve his run defense enough and finish more sacks. He could wind up as a top 10 defensive tackle with that, and if the Bears have the push from the inside by one of their biggest players, it's going to make the rest of their rush and the coverage better. There's no way to be sure he'll make this leap, and if you look at PFF grades the defensive line is definitely not respected. They all have much ground to make up. However, Dexter doing it would be a surprise because he isn't a household name like Grady Jarrett or an edge who gained great notoriety by being traded on deadline like Montez Sweat. This would be a surprise impact.

3. D'Andre Swift's YBC

This great unknown revolves around two improvements. One is the offensive line. No one thinks this doesn't happen considering how bad they were at times last year at operating efficiently on the line.

The Bears are counting on an offensive line greatly improved at three positions and the one thing they're hoping it does is make Swift a more dependable gainer game to game and down to down. 

Whether and how much he actually does is an X-factor.

In 2023, Swift had his lone 1,000-yard season and averaged 4.6 yards a carry for the Eagles. The Eagles offensive line was good enough that Swift finished fourth in the NFL in yards before contact (642). When he came to the Bears and ran behind their porous offensive line, he was 20th in yards before contact. His yardage after contact shows he's never going to be much of a contact runner because he was 17th in 2023 and 19th in 2024 but getting the extra better blocking to let him have more of a head start can give him the better consistency like he had in Philadelphia. That extra yardage, especially on early downs, makes all the difference in a more effective offense.

2. Caleb Williams' Development

Simply calling Williams the X-factor isn't enough. His improvement has to be assumed. He was only graded 31st last year by PFF. They see him moving up from 31 to 24 but it easily could be even better. When the 12th-ranked quarterback hasn't taken a snap in the NFL and has been in the league a full year, then of course it can get better than 24th for Williams.

The degree of his development is the true X-factor because it's difficult to project what it means in Year 2 when he has better blocking, a better play caller and someone who will help him realize what he's supposed to be looking at when he watches game film. Do secondaries open up to him suddenly, and the windows for receptions within coverages become more obvious?

Williams is going to go through some rough times, especially early, because he's in his third offense in three years. However, once he adjusts to that he does already have the base of a 2023 season facing NFL defenses. Advancement could be rapid.

To what extent makes all the difference.

1. Ben Johnson's Coaching

This is the ultimate Bears X-factor. There is no way to gauge the level of impact because there are so many variables involved.

If Johnson is the same play caller he was with a great offensive line in Detroit, if he can handle developing a young QB, if he can handle the game situations better than abysmal failure Matt Eberflus, then this could be a dramatic turnaround like the Bears made in 2018 under Matt Nagy. It could be even better because coordinator Dennis Allen also might keep their defense progressing.

Everything the Bears do this season could be better because of Johnson's touch. There's just no way to know or even determine the amount of impact this will have on their success.

It's a true X-factor.

More Chicago Bears News

X: BearsOnSI

Published
Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.