Bear Digest

Why the coming Trey Smith bidding war looks bleak for Bears

Newest contract projection for guard Trey Smith is probably too low considering competition that could line up for his services, and it all adds up to trouble for the Chicago Bears.

Gene Chamberlain

Chiefs guard Trey Smith blocks against the Baltimore Ravens. Projections for Smith in free agency seem too low.
Chiefs guard Trey Smith blocks against the Baltimore Ravens. Projections for Smith in free agency seem too low. / Denny Medley-Imagn Images
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The Bears and Trey Smith have long been labeled a thing.

It probably started in November, just after the Matt Eberflus meltdown became obvious during the Hail Mary game.

Caleb Williams' ugly 68 sacks made for an easy Chicago connection to offensive line needs, but it didn't hurt that the Bears have had an obvious hole at right guard since Nate Davis decided on what could best be described as a COVID style opt-out minus the COVID. You need to practice to play and numerous Bears sources say he lacked much interest in this.

Smith's play in Kansas City's regular season was as spectacular and visible as someone buried deep in the NFL trenches can manage, although his postseason play triggered a few questions. He had the second-lowest Pro Football Focus grade for all Chiefs offensive linemen in postseason.

Kansas City's weak salary cap situation, with about $11.5 million available, makes retaining Smith seem unlikely. However, teams can work miracles with restructured contracts and summon cash from the future to address today's expenditures. It's even easier if you have a QB with a huge contract like Mahomes, but it would seem the Chiefs might have too many players in the pay line to also pay Smith.

Before starting up the "Bear Down Chicago Bears" fight song and trumpeting yet another victory for the team that always wins the NFL offseason, consider the reality of this situation.

It's free agency. The player is free but he's not going to come for free to his new team.

Cash availability under the cap counts. So does need. Marcus Mosher of The 33rd Team has a new contract projection for in Thursday's story on mega-contracts. The plain fact is the Bears are not the favorite to sign Smith.

The New England Patriots must be considered favorites.

The Patriots have a new coach, just like the Bears. They have a young, promising quarterback, just like the Bears—although many would suggest Drake Maye is even better than Caleb Williams. They even smashed the Bears' heads in at Soldier Field last year.

What the Patriots really have that's better than what the Bears have is more cap space. They have a sickening amount of cap space, more than twice the effective salary cap space as the Bears, according to the website Overthecap.com.

They need line help, after 52 sacks were allowed. The Patriots' line had an 80.1 Pro Football Focus pass-blocking rating, which ranked 31st in the NFL.

The Patriots are going to need a new offensive line even worse than the Bears. They were graded overall as the worst line in the league by PFF.

They've got the cash to pay for two or three Trey Smiths. They have $111.99 million. The Bears have $53.98 million in effective cap space, according to OTC.

Among the other teams named by The 33rd Team's Tyler Brooke as possible favorites for Smith are the Texans, who are already over the cap. So, scratch that.

The Titans have a little less cash available than the Bears. Tennessee has something else on its side, though. It is where Smith was born, went to school, and it's where he has inherited a 150-acre farm from his grandfather. This means a lot to him, according to the in-depth story written about Smith by The Athletic's Dan Pompei.

Mosher makes the contract projection for Smith at four years and $84 million. That seems low considering the bidding war that could erupt. It wouldn't be a shock for Smith to emerge somewhere around $25 million a year or more.

No one has even declared the Chiefs dead in this hunt and with offensive line a key problem during their loss to the Eagles in the Super Bowl then losing one of their best blockers doesn't seem the way to go about getting back there.

The Bears will have a ton of competition for Smith, if he even becomes available. The one big advantage they had in 2023 and 2024 during free agency was their wealth of salary cap space.

That advantage appears to be gone.

The Patriots rule the roost and have to be considered favorites to land a mobile big man who blocks with real ferocity. The Titans have the home-field farm advantage and maybe they're second.

The Bears have a lot of cash and Ryan Poles, who worked for the Chiefs when Smith got drafted. They also have more needs than what $21 million a year plus for one offensive lineman allows them to address.

It doesn't seem to stack up to what others have working in their favor in this coming Trey Smith bidding war.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.