Bengals QB Joe Burrow Is NFL's Best of Last 5 Seasons in Multiple Categories, All of Which Are in Play at Buffalo

Jan 22, 2023; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) runs with the ball against the Buffalo Bills during the second quarter of an AFC divisional round game at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-Imagn Images | Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

CINCINNATI – Death, taxes and Joe Burrow covering the spread.

Well, covering a spread of at least 3 points, that is.

There are no sure things when it comes to betting, but riding with the Cincinnati Bengals when Burrow is starting and they are underdogs of 3 points or more is about as close as it gets.

Since 2021, the Bengals and Burrow are 13-1 against spreads of 3+ in the regular season and playoffs.

And the one loss? That was the 34-20 loss at Baltimore in 2023 when Burrow suffered his season-ending wrist injury and didn’t play in the second half.

The Bengals were 3.5-point underdogs that night and were winning 10-7 at the time of the injury.

The Bengals are 5.5-point underdogs at Buffalo on Sunday.

Burrow’s 92.9 cover percentage is the best among quarterbacks with at least five starts as a 3+ underdog since 2021.

Lamar Jackson is second 83.3 percent, followed by Michael Penix Jr. (80.0), Jimmy Garoppolo (77.8) and Jared Goff (67.9).

Here are the Top 20:

SportRadar

But Burrow isn’t just elite at covering the spread. He ranks first in outright winning percentage, going 9-5 (.643) in those games.

And it’s 9-4 (.692) if you only count games he starts AND finishes, taking out the 2023 wrist injury game.

There are only four other quarterbacks with at least five starts as 3+ underdogs who have won more than half the time – Ryan Tannehill 10-8 (.556), Garoppolo 5-4 (.556), Jayden Daniels 6-5 (.545) and Derek Carr 10-9 (.526).

In the months of December and January, Burrow is 5-0 as a 3+ underdog.

Since 2021, there are 30 quarterbacks with at least five starts as 3+ underdogs in December and January. Each of the other 29 have at least 2 losses.

And they are 56-136 (.292) as a group.

Here are the Top 20:

SportRadar

Not all December and January games are freezing, but when they are, Burrow has the second-best winning percentage of any quarterback with at least three starts since 2000.

In games with a temperature below 32 degrees at kickoff, Burrow is 5-1 (.833).

The lone loss was 2022 AFC Championship game at Kansas City.

He’s 3-0 in the regular season, with two of those wins coming in Pittsburgh (27 degrees in 2022, and 19 degrees in 2024). The other was Christmas eve 2022 at New England (21 degrees).

Weather.com forecasts a high of 30 Sunday in Buffalo.

Kyle Orton tops the list at 8-1 (.889), while Trent Green is tied with Burrow at 5-1 (.833).

Patrick Mahomes is fourth at 14-3 (.824), followed by Tom Brady 32-7 (.821), Donovan McNabb 9-2 (.818) and Sunday’s Bengals’ opponent, Josh Allen 12-3 (.800).

The Top 20:

SportRadar

Cincinnati’s cold weather excellence actually extends back well before Burrow’s arrival.

The Bengals might be the best cold-weather team in the league.

If we take off the sub-freezing filter, Burrow and the Bengals still are elite when it gets late.

Among the 32 quarterbacks with at least 10 starts in December and January since 2021, Burrow is tied with Matthew Stafford for the best winning percentage.

Both are 18-4 (.818).

Rounding out the top five are Mahomes 25-6 (.806), Allen 23-8 (.742) and Goff 19-7 (.731).

The Top 20:

SportRadar

And when it comes to playing on the road late in the season, Burrow and Cincinnati head coach Zac Taylor rank among the best not just of their era, but of all time.

Burrow is 9-1 (.900) on the road in December and January.

Rounding out the top five are Mahomes 16-4 (.800), Roger Staubach 11-3 (.786), Earl Morral 8-3 (.727) and Stan Humphries 8-2 (.727).

SportRadar

Taylor ranks eighth among all coaches. The top 10 includes five retired coaches, four of whom are in the Hall of Fame, and five active coaches, four of whom have led their team to a Super Bowl.

Coaches with the best road records in games played in Dec/Jan since 1970 merger. pic.twitter.com/mfXnZnLpgp

— Jay Morrison (@ByJayMorrison) December 3, 2025

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