Where ESPN projects Bills WR Keon Coleman to rank among rookie receivers

ESPN projects Buffalo Bills wide receiver Keon Coleman to finish among the NFL's top rookie wideouts.

Nov 18, 2023; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles wide receiver Keon Coleman (4) catches a ball in the endzone to score a touchdown against the North Alabama Lions during the third quarter at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Morgan Tencza-USA TODAY Sports / Morgan Tencza-USA TODAY Sports

It’s oft-said throughout the NFL draft process that a prospect’s landing spot is just as, if not more, important than their ability—a prospect could have all the talent in the world, but if they enter a situation with a steep path to playing time, their on-field impact may be limited. Conversely, a non-premier prospect may have a comparatively significant impact on their team if they’re afforded an immediate opportunity to contribute.

Wide receiver Keon Coleman falls into the latter category; though ranked as one of the better pass-catchers in the 2024 NFL Draft by most, this year’s wide receiver class was one of the more talented in recent years. Marvin Harrison Jr. was considered, by many, to be in a tier of his own, with the likes of Malik Nabers, Rome Ozunze, and Brian Thomas Jr. occupying the one or two tiers above Coleman. This pre-draft sentiment was reflected in the draft itself—though Coleman was taken with the 33rd overall pick in the draft, there were seven wide receivers taken before him.

Though not unanimously viewed as one of the “elite” wideouts in this year’s draft, few rookie receivers are entering a more advantageous situation than Coleman; he projects to play an immediate role in a revamped Buffalo receiving corps that lost Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis in the offseason, with general manager Brandon Beane already state that the team views Coleman as its X wide receiver. Diggs and Davis combined for 1,929 receiving yards in the 2023 season, and while Coleman won’t be expected to replace all of this production, the Bills hope that the rookie can account for a healthy portion of it.

Related: WATCH: Rookie WR Keon Coleman catches first passes from Josh Allen

Coleman’s combination of talent and landing spot should result in immediate production, an idea that’s reflected in Mike Clay’s projections for rookie wide receivers in the 2024 season. The ESPN analyst expects the wideout to finish fourth amongst rookie pass-catchers in receiving yards with 810, also predicting five touchdowns for the 21-year-old.

“Since 2011, there are 135 receivers who fit that bill and played at least one snap as a rookie,” Clay wrote. “Of those 135, 22 (16.3%) reached 800 receiving yards and 21 (15.6%) reached seven receiving touchdowns. This is something to keep in mind when considering the upside of Coleman (whose optimistic projection stems from Buffalo's Josh Allen-led offense and wide-open WR depth chart), Thomas, Xavier Worthy and Xavier Legette.”

Coleman is projected to finish behind Harrison Jr. (1,121 yards, six touchdowns), Malik Nabers (1,033 yards, five touchdowns), and Brian Thomas Jr. (814, five touchdowns). Clay expects him to account for more yardage than Chicago Bears rookie Rome Odunze (803 yards), who was selected with the ninth overall pick in the draft.

The projection seems generally fair; though Coleman is projected to play a prominent role in Buffalo’s receiving corps, Khalil Shakir, Curtis Samuel, and Dalton Kincaid still figure to see significant targets. If the projection were to come to fruition, Coleman’s season would be the fourth-best by a rookie receiver in Bills franchise history.