Bills' Decision to Trade Down in NFL Draft Was Misguided as Former Executive's Analysis Proves

The Bills moved out of the first round and gained plenty of late-round draft capital, but was it the right move?

Boston College Eagles offensive lineman Jude Bowry (71), wide receiver Luke McLaughlin (83) and head coach Bill O'Brien celebrate. | Eric Canha-Imagn Images

The Buffalo Bills’ primary strategy during the 2026 draft was to trade down and gain additional draft capital, which allowed them to finish the draft with three more selections than they had entering this past weekend’s selection process.

Since they decided to move out of the first round at pick No. 26 overall, the Bills’ plan has been debated, with some arguing it was the right decision and others arguing it wasn’t. If you were to ask a former NFL executive and current analyst, Andrew Brandt, he would presumably tell you Buffalo’s choice was the wrong one.

During a recent appearance on the Ross Tucker Podcast, Brandt, the Green Bay Packers’ former Vice President of Player Finance and General Counsel, reflected on the state of the NFL Draft as it relates to Name, Image and Likeness [NIL] at the college level. According to Brandt, he learned through a discussion with a scout that the NCAA's new financial construct is killing the rookie selection process.

“I think he told me the same thing last year, but last year he told me Rounds 6 and 7. Now it’s Rounds 4 through 7,” said Brandt, as far as which part of the draft he learned has been depleted due to a weaker crop of talent emerging from college.

He added, “As you watch the draft, or hear about the draft on Saturday, Rounds 4 through 7, know that NFL scouts are looking at a crop of players that is weakened significantly by NIL. In other words, a lot of the players who would be fourth-to-seventh-round picks have chosen to stay in school rather than go to the draft. A lot.”

That message didn’t appear to hit home for the Bills’ front office, which spent Thursday and Friday collecting as many late-round selections as possible. It was questionable at the time, and now, listening to Brandt’s analysis, the direction Buffalo took seems even more unreasonable.

The lot

Clemson defensive end T.J. Parker (3) during Clemson football first fall 2025 practice at the Allen N. Reeves Football Complex. | Ken Ruinard / USA Today Network South Carolina / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Bills’ process of trading down began in Round 1 and extended into the second round, as three transactions, one apiece with the Houston Texans, New England Patriots and Tennessee Titans, eventually led to the selection of edge rusher T.J. Parker at No. 35 overall. Then, Buffalo traded up to select cornerback Davison Igbinosun before the second round was through.

After that pick, the Bills’ remaining eight selections came on Day 3, when Brandt says the talent pool has been significantly hampered by players’ potential to earn big bucks in college. Buffalo took offensive lineman Jude Bowry, wide receiver Skyler Bell and linebacker Kaleb Elarms-Orr in the fourth round, safety Jalon Kilgore and defensive tackle Zane Durant in the fifth round and cornerback Toriano Pride Jr., punter Tommy Doman Jr., as well as guard Ar’maj Reed-Adams each in the seventh round.

The predraft consensus determined the Bills got some good value in a few of their picks, namely with Bell, Elarms-Orr and Kilgore. Additionally, perhaps Doman can beat out Mitch Wishnowsky for the starting punter job, as I predicted earlier this week. However, Bowry was a questionable pick, as was Durant, while Pride Jr. and Reed-Adams, being seventh-round selections, don’t have a realistic opportunity to contribute at the NFL level anytime soon.

And if what Brandt says is true, even the picks I’m high on have a greater chance of turning out to be duds. His point rings true, given high-level prospects such as Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss fought like hell to join a group of others to remain in college because of the benefits of NIL.

History is not kind

Buffalo Bills wide receiver Keon Coleman (0) runs the ball during the fourth quarter against the Baltimore Ravens at Highmark Stadium. | Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

The last time Buffalo moved out of the first round was 2024, when the Bills took Keon Coleman at the start of Round 2. In two seasons since that draft, their return on Coleman and most of their other picks from that class haven’t turned out so hot, as I laid out in a previous piece posted to Bills OnSI.

If the Bills indeed got things wrong again, as Brandt’s analysis would suggest, that will set Buffalo back even further in its roster construction as it continues its quest for a Super Bowl.

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