Three Games That Will Decide Whether Bills Make the Playoffs

The Buffalo Bills have a tough schedule this season, as they hold the eighth-most challenging strength of schedule, according to their opponents’ win percentage from a season ago, which sits at 0.528.

With such a tough slate ahead and such a major transition having taken place throughout various levels of the organization, Buffalo could be in jeopardy of missing the playoffs for the first time since the 2018 season.

If they are to prove that to be a faulty premise while extending their postseason streak to eight straight years, the Bills must step their game up during what will be as critical of a three-game stretch as they will face throughout he 2026 campaign. From Weeks 12 to 16, Buffalo faces a trio of matchups that will define their playoff fortune.

Bills need to stay hot against Chiefs

Buffalo Bills defensive tackle Jordan Phillips pressure Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes who was trying to get a pass off before Phillips reached him. | Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Bills have won five straight regular-season matchups against the Chiefs and Kansas City is coming off a 2025 season in which they missed the playoffs with an abysmal 6-11 record. Additionally, Patrick Mahomes’ season ended early due to a torn ACL, which makes the perennial Super Bowl contenders’ position in the AFC ranks a bit tenuous.

Still, this is the Chiefs we’re talking about, and when Mahomes is healthy, they will remain a significant threat in the conference. With that said, how things trended even before Mahomes’ significant injury a season ago, Kansas City could be in the hunt for a wild-car berth rather than as the clear-cut division title winner that they have been in the past.

It’s not out of the realm of possibility that KC and Buffalo could be jockeying for position over the final weeks of the season, so they must take care of business in this game.

The AFC East runs through New England

Buffalo Bills linebacker Matt Milano (58) sacks New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) during the second half at Gillette Stadium. | Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images

This game may not only decide the Bills’ quest to advance to the playoffs, it could also decide their fate in the AFC East. New England took the divisional title from the Bills for the first time since 2019 last year and Buffalo might need two wins over the rival Patriots to get back on top of the heap this year.

The Bills' other matchup against the Patriots comes early in the season in Week 4 and will be exceptionally critical. But down the stretch of the year is when playoff spots are solidified and divisional crowns are earned, and Buffalo must be at its best against last year’s East champs.

The Patriots made various offseason additions, highlighted by a trade with the Philadelphia Eagles that landed them New England superstar wide receiver A.J. Brown. They

Bills must earn vengeance with win over Broncos

Ja'Quan McMillian, Brandin Cooks — Denver Broncos cornerback Ja'quan McMillian and Buffalo Bills wide receiver Brandin Cooks both go up for the ball during overtime at Empower FIeld. | Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Broncos are for real and proved as much with their overtime win over the Bills in the divisional round last season. They made a splash move this offseason, a trade with the Miami Dolphins for WR Jaylen Waddle, which should help their passing game reach another level of production in 2026.

Buffalo will have to wait nearly the whole season for a chance at vengeance, but they’ll have their opportunity with three games to go in the season. It’s when the rubber meets the road for NFL teams, and the Bills will have to be much more efficient than they were the last time they faced the Broncos if they hope to earn a better result this time around.

Buffalo turned the ball over five times against Denver during the ’25 postseason, with four coming from Josh Allen. That can’t happen again if they hope to cement their playoff hopes by prevailing over the Broncos in late-December.

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