Draft Insider Reveals Broncos to Be 'Aggressive' in Landing a 'Top QB'
What happens at quarterback for the Denver Broncos this offseason? That's the question on everyone's mind — from fans to media — and the prevailing expectation is that Russell Wilson will be released.
If that happens, the Broncos once again will exile themselves to the quarterback desert, where they've often wandered since Super Bowl 50. Holding the No. 12 overall pick in the NFL draft, sans Wilson, it would be an upset if the Broncos didn't take a quarterback.
The most trendy name linked to Denver of late? Oregon's Bo Nix. Pro Football Focus' Trevor Sikkema is the latest to mock Nix to the Broncos, only a couple of weeks removed from calling him the "perfect fit" for Sean Payton. The PFF draft expert also seemed to forecast the Broncos being "aggressive" in landing a top quarterback in the draft this year.
I’m sure this pick won’t be polarizing or anything. Nonetheless, we have to operate as if Wilson will no longer be the Broncos quarterback. His dead money will still be hanging around, so I can’t imagine they move on from Wilson just to then sign some journeyman backup quarterback to be their starter.
I expect the Broncos to get aggressive for one of the top quarterbacks, but I think Nix will (and should) also be high on their list. Nix is a different player from his Auburn days. He earned a 92.7 PFF passing grade this past season with a 91.2 PFF passing grade under pressure. Throw in the traits of NFL-caliber arm strength and some added mobility with his legs, and you’ve got a quarterback worth taking in Round 1.
Sikkema assertion that the Broncos will be "aggressive" in maneuvering for a quarterback is curious. Would that mean pushing for the top-3? Or could Sikkema simply be speaking to the Broncos' mindset of making sure a QB is procured at some point in the first round? Payton has a history of being relatively aggressive in pursuit of his top prospects in the draft.
While Payton has never been part of a blockbuster deal to get into the top-5, his resume as a draft artist is replete with examples of trading up to ensure he gets his guy. Even in his first draft as Broncos head coach, Payton entered the proceedings without a second-round pick, but still packaged a deal to move up to secure wideout-turned-All-Pro-returner Marvin Mims Jr. at pick 63.
If Wilson is jettisoned, I could foresee Payton and the Broncos moving mountains to get their franchise quarterback of the future. But a massive trade-up into the top-3 would be contingent on Chicago, Washington, or New England being open to dealing, and it doesn't sound like any of the three are currently open to moving down.
There's a lot to like about the 6-foot-3, 214-pound Nix, but as I wrote on Thursday, the biggest criticism is that he's a "system quarterback." In two seasons with the Ducks, he passed for a combined 8,101 yards and a whopping 74 touchdowns, with just 10 interceptions.
The Nix-led Ducks went 22-5 with him as the quarterback. But due to Oregon's scheme and how he was asked to operate within it, he's a bit of a tough nut to crack from an evaluation standpoint.
But Nix has been compared to the likes of Drew Brees by college football QB guru Joel Klatt and has a lot of starting experience. But another drawback is that he's about to turn 24 years old, which could impact his draft stock somewhat.
Time will tell whether the Nix-to-Denver signals are just smoke or if there's fire. I lean toward fire. But Sikkema isn't wrong in stating that the Broncos will have little choice but to go cheap at quarterback as a result of the salary-cap hell they're in, thanks in large part to the $35.4 million in dead-money charges that accompany a Wilson release.
A first-round quarterback playing on a rookie contract could be just the remedy. The question is whether Denver will trade up to get closer to one of the top-3 signal-callers in the 2024 draft, stand pat at No. 12, or trade back.
Sikkema seems to think that the Broncos will be "aggressive" in pursuit of one of the top quarterbacks. Right now, the tippity-top of that list includes USC's Caleb Williams, UNC's Drake Maye, and LSU's Jayden Daniels, but this could be a year that as many as five or even six quarterbacks go in the first round.
Nix is a first-round candidate, although, as Sikkema writes, he is a polarizing prospect. Some draftniks view Nix as a Day 1 pick, some a fringe first-rounder, and others a Day 2 QB. Washington's Michael Penix Jr. and Michigan's J.J. McCarthy have also been mocked in Round 1.
For what it's worth, Sikkema's mock draft was a five-rounder, which saw the Broncos load up on defense after taking Nix at No. 12. To wit:
Round 3, Pick 76: LB Junior Colson, Michigan
Round 4, Pick 113: WR Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint, Georgia
Round 4, Pick 121: DT Nazir Stackhouse, Georgia
Round 5, Pick 149: CB Kamal Hadden, Tennessee
That would be a decent haul for the Broncos, especially if the team were to land Payton's QB of the future. The Broncos have big holes at linebacker, defensive line, and cornerback, and depending on how the offseason shakes out for Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy, wide receiver could end up being a bigger need than it seemed going in.
The thing to monitor relative to the Broncos and the draft is Sikkema's assertion of Payton being "aggressive." We can only continue to analyze the breadcrumbs we come across on the pre-draft trail to determine what that might mean exactly.
But Broncos Country should be prepared for anything.
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