Broncos’ DVOA Ranking Reveals Where They Stand—and What Lies Ahead

DVOA is as good a measuring stick as anything, and we point it at the Broncos' next four opponents.

Sep 20, 2026; Denver, Colorado, USA; The Denver Broncos huddle up in the during the fourth quarter against the Jacksonville Jaguars at Empower Field at Mile High. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Denver Broncos got themselves a much-needed win amid their six-game stretch against playoff teams from 2025.

It was particularly good to see the Broncos bounce back after such a poor performance in the season opener. Denver defeated the Jacksonville Jaguars at home, 20-13.

Week 1 is often described by Aaron Schatz, the man behind the advanced football metric DVOA, as 'National Jump to Conclusions Week.' For those who jumped to the conclusion that the Broncos were going to struggle this season based on Week 1, they showed in Week 2 they can still get the job done against a quality team.

But how will the Broncos fare in the next four games? Can they emerge with at least a pair of wins?

Only two weeks of the season are in the books, but we can get a rough idea about how challenging those next four games might actually be.

As an advanced metric, DVOA can give us a picture of how teams measure up. It's not a perfect measuring stick, but it does indicate how efficient teams are in all three phases of the game.

With Schatz's Week 2 rankings out, let's break DVOA down as it pertains to the Broncos, their previous two games, and the next four on the schedule.

Broncos' DVOA Ranking

Ja'Quan McMillian celebrates a big play. | Derek Regensburger / IMAGO / ZUMA Press Wire

The Broncos rank 15th overall in DVOA at 8.6%. They rank 16th in offense at -0.8%, 12th in defense at -6%and 13th in special teams at 3.4%.

As always, defensive DVOA is better when it is negative, while positive is better for offense and special teams. Also, DVOA does not yet account for opponent adjustments.

But as things stand, the Broncos look like a league-average team. That doesn't mean they won't make the playoffs, though, because there's a lot of season left to play.

Chiefs and Jaguars DVOA Ranking

Patrick Mahomes does his thing. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Chiefs are currently ranked fourth in overall DVOA at 32.4%. They're ranked sixth in offense at 21.3%, 10th in defense at -12.4% and 20th in special teams at -1.3%.

The Jaguars are currently ranked 11th in overall DVOA at 17.5%. They rank fifth in offense at 21.9%, 14th in defense at -1.7% and 24th in special teams at -6.1%.

Keep in mind that the Jaguars dominated the Cleveland Browns while the Broncos struggled against the Chiefs, so DVOA is going to reflect that. However, once more games are played and opponent adjustments kick in, it's possible the Broncos could move ahead of the Jaguars.

Next Four Opponents: DVOA Rankings

Matthew Stafford scrambles. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Los Angeles Rams: 14th overall (9.9%), eighth offense (11.5%), ninth defense (-14.1%), 32nd special teams (-15.7%).

The Rams offense and defense are good, but the special teams are bad. Of course, that's without opponent adjustments, but special teams has to be a concern for the Rams — and that might be the area in which the Broncos can capitalize and get a win in Week 3.

San Francisco 49ers: First overall (78%), second offense (47%), fifth defense (-27.5%), 12th special teams (3.5%).

At this point, the Niners are the toughest opponent the Broncos will face in the next four weeks. They're playing well in nearly every aspect of the game. It's going to be tough for the Broncos to win this one if the Niners play well in Week 3 and show they can overcome recent injuries.

Los Angeles Chargers: 30th overall (-44%), 27th offense (-20.6%), 27th defense (16.9%), 25th special teams (-6.5%).

While plenty of Broncos fans may have pegged the Week 5 game with the Chargers as a win, I doubt most fans expected L.A. to be 0-2 and show signs of being a bad football team. With that said, the Broncos can't take anything for granted, particularly if the Chargers lose their next two games and become desperate for a win.

Seattle Seahawks: Fifth overall (31.8%), 15th offense (-0.7%), second defense (-30%), 15th special teams (2.4%).

The Seahawks' offense is league average even if highlight reels might suggest otherwise, but the defense is a strong unit. The Broncos at least get them at home, but they'll have to avoid mistakes on offense because the Seahawks defense will capitalize and that sets up their offense to do some damage.

Plus, it sounds like Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald and Sean Payton are both uniquely motivated going into this game.

The Takeaway

The Broncos can go 3-3 in their first six games but that means they'll have to knock off one of the NFC West teams to have a chance. The Rams might be the best chance, given their special teams aren't good and they may be without some key players.

Perhaps the Broncos can get the Seahawks if things fall into place. But again, they cannot have costly mistakes on offense.

The Chargers don't look like a playoff team at this point, but the Broncos can't take anything for granted. Still, that's the other game the Broncos have a good chance to win at this point if they take care of business.

The 49ers may be the game the Broncos don't win, even if San Francisco is without a couple of key players by that point. The 49ers are playing great ball, it's a road game, and I don't see the Broncos sweeping the NFC West teams. Still, if the Broncos were to play well overall in a loss, it would still be a good sign.

Again, we're only two weeks into the season, but those two weeks can be indicators of where teams stand. And though one of the Broncos' upcoming opponents doesn't look as good as expected, the others do look as advertised, so it still won't be an easy schedule.

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