Latest AFC West Prediction Misses What Makes Broncos Dangerous

The Denver Broncos' path to repeat as AFC West champions will be tough. But it was a slog last year, and the Broncos weathered the storm by winning 14 games.

It's an especialy rough first six weeks of the season, so the Broncos might not start the 2026 campaign on an especially hot note. That wouldn't be anything new, though; the Broncos started 1-2 in each of Bo Nix's two seasons at the helm, and Sean Payton teams are traditionally slow starters.

The schedule itself has sparked reactions across the NFL media world. Many pundits see 2026 as the Kansas City Chiefs' return to the top of the AFC West, including Sports Illustrated's Matt Verderame, who predicted the Broncos finish second with an 11-6 record. He has the Chiefs winning 12 and the Chargers falling to 8-9, but he may be overlooking some key factors that make the Broncos so dangerous.

"The Broncos are trying to defend their first AFC West crown since 2015, and they’ll have a reasonable chance to do so. While drawing the NFC West and a first-place schedule makes things tougher, Denver is bringing back most of its star-studded defense, and added receiver Jaylen Waddle to the offense. The early-season schedule is very tough with a Monday nighter in Kansas City, followed by tilts with the Jaguars, Rams and 49ers over the first month," Verderame wrote.

Best-Case Scenario

The best-case scenario is that Denver emerges from those first six games at 4-2. I have them starting 3-3, with wins over the Chiefs, Jaguars, and Rams, and losses to the 49ers, Seahawks, and Chargers.

But who knows? The games won't be played for some time. Any predictions right now fall under the way-too-early category. That doesn't take away from the fun of it, though.

After that six-week gauntlet, things loosen up for the Broncos between Weeks 7 and 15, with two tough matchups sprinkled in between: the Chiefs in Denver and the Steelers in Pittsburgh. There's a good chance the Broncos go on a run starting in Week 7, though the Chiefs and Steelers could be a speedbump.

The final three games are doozies, too, as the Broncos' schedule is bookended by the toughest opponents. Denver's final three games are Buffalo at home, the Patriots at Foxboro, and the Chargers at home. Even if the Broncos start slow, they absolutely have to finish strong.

The Nix Factor

Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) celebrates after scoring a touchdown during the second half against the Kansas City Chiefs. | Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

I think they will. Nix enters his third year after becoming the most prolific quarterback (stats and wins) in NFL history through his first two seasons.

With Waddle in the fold and a rebuilt backfield behind him, there's every reason to believe that Year 3 is when Nix takes his quantum leap forward. He's been a steady producer and was a day-one starter, but this is the year he takes his game to another level.

The schedule demands it. The Broncos will face a who's-who of the NFL's top quarterbacks this season, many of whom are accompanied by a great head coach and defense.

As a pro, Nix has shown a tremendous reslience and ability to bow up and elevate his game when crossing swords with top-tier quarterbacks. The only exceptions, really, have been against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens in Nix's rookie year, and Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars last year.

I suppose you could throw Justin Herbert and the Chargers in that conversation, too. Nix is yet to beat a Herbert-led version of the Chargers.

By and large, though, when Nix has drawn an upper-echelon quarterback on the schedule, he digs deep and finds a way to elevate his game. The divisional round of the playoffs last year was a great example of that vs. Josh Allen and the Bills, as were Nix's signature wins over Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, Jalen Hurts and the Eagles, and Jordan Love and the Packers.

The Broncos' defense will be as formidable as ever, and, health willing, the ground attack behind Nix will be much improved with J.K. Dobbins back at full health, RJ Harvey looking to build on an impressive first year, and rookie Jonah Coleman added to the mix.

The Takeaway

With how far this team has come over the past two years, worst case, the Broncos go 11-6. That would be Verderame's prediction, the worst-case scenario.

I have the Broncos taking a modest step back in 2026, and winning 13 games, which should still be enough to clinch the AFC West for the 17th time in franchise history. However, with how stiff the beginning and ending to this schedule is, there could be a high variance to some of these games.

Remember, though: the Chiefs and Chargers also have to play the AFC East and the NFC West, just like the Broncos. Those two divisions produced five playoff teams last year, so even if the Broncos win 11 games in 2026, it could well be enough to clinch the division. 13 wins almost certainly sees the Broncos repeat as AFC West champs.

Sign up for our free Denver Broncos On SI newsletter, and get breaking Broncos news delivered to your inbox daily!

Add us as a preferred source on Google