New ESPN Forecast Sees Regression Coming for Broncos

When it comes to NFL power rankings, the Denver Broncos have been considered a top-five team during the 2026 offseason, with some media outlets placing them at No. 1 or No. 2. Not every publication is sold on the Broncos, but generally speaking, they're being viewed as a top contender in the AFC.

But there is a big difference between a generic power ranking and ESPN's Football Power Index, which ranks teams based on a combination of projected win totals from the betting market, teams' actual schedule, and other factors, including the difference between a team's starting quarterback and backup.

The first Football Power Index of the 2026 offseason just dropped, and many Broncos fans will have a difficult time understanding why their team is ranked... No. 15, despite securing the AFC's No. 1 playoff seed last year and coming one Bo Nix injury away from the Super Bowl. The New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks actually made the Super Bowl, but they're ranked No. 14 and No. 4 in the FPI, respectively.

The bottom line, according to ESPN's Seth Walder, may be the fact that such a big percentage of Denver's wins last season, including playoffs, were of the one-score variety. The Broncos' brutal first-place schedule and the uncertain health of their quarterback also factored into their 15th-ranking and 2.6% chance of winning the Super Bowl.

"Denver is coming off a very impressive season, but the FPI believes regression is coming. One major red flag was the Broncos' 12-3 record (including playoffs) in one-score games last season -- a rate that is unlikely to continue. That's not something the FPI explicitly considers, but it is the sort of thing the betting market might, which in turn affects the FPI," Walder wrote.

"Also, like Seattle, Denver is led by a stellar defense. And even though that unit looks good again on paper, odds are it won't be quite as good as it was in 2025. Plus, like with Mahomes, there is some Bo Nix injury risk baked in after the quarterback had a second procedure on his right ankle in April."

ESPN's Football Power Index is out!

The Rams are No. 1, the Seahawks are No. 4 and the Patriots are...No. 14!

Projections, most likely Super Bowl matchups and more in today's story: https://t.co/a3gvnREcZ3 pic.twitter.com/cUwrQBBGkw
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) June 3, 2026

The FPI ranked the Los Angeles Chargers at No. 7 and the Kansas City Chiefs at No. 9, both well ahead of Denver, which is interesting, considering they also have to face the entire NFC West and AFC East this coming season, two divisions that produced five playoff teams in 2025.

Of the top 10 AFC teams, the FPI also set the Broncos' chances at making the playoffs at 53.6%. That's basically a 50/50 coin flip.

Let's examine all the factors Walder cited in Denver ranking No. 15 in FPI.

One-Score Games

Bo Nix. — Bo Nix scores a touchdown vs. the New York Giants. | John McGloughlin / IMAGO / Icon Sportswire

To play devil's advocate for a moment, Walder's point about one-score games is a valid one. For example, the Chiefs had a crazy-good record in single-score games in 2024, winning 11 of them in one miraculous, death-defying fashion after another.

The Chiefs made it to the Super Bowl again, but were defeated handily by the Philadelphia Eagles. Fast forward to 2025, and the Chiefs seemingly couldn't win a one-score game to save their lives, nor their season.

In all the fortunate ways the ball was bouncing the Chiefs' way in 2024 in those close games (remember the blocked Wil Lutz field goal at Arrowhead?), their luck took the opposite turn the next season. It was a major reason Kansas City won only six games and failed to make the playoffs, an outcome that had already been decided when Patrick Mahomes went down with that knee injury in Week 15.

With the first-place schedule the Broncos are getting this year, along with the schedule rotating the NFC West and AFC East to face the AFC West, the odds are they'll face many more one-score situations late in games. History suggests that Denver won't be so fortunate this time around, but even though past outcomes are the best predictor of future outcomes, they're not the only factor.

Defensive Regression

Zach Allen and John Franklin-Myers — Denver Broncos defensive end Zach Allen (99) celebrates his sack with defensive end John Franklin-Myers (98) in the fourth quarter against the New York Giants. | Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

Again, playing devil's advocate, the only factors I can think of that would lead to a defensive step back in 2026 are the strength of schedule and the departure of starting defensive end John Franklin-Myers. JFM produced 14.5 sacks over the past two years, but the Broncos obviously didn't believe he was indispensable to the defense.

The Broncos certainly didn't view JFM the same way they do cornerback Patrick Surtain II, defensive end Zach Allen, outside linebacker Nik Bonitto, and safety Talanoa Hufanga, not to mention linebackers Alex Singleton and Justin Strnad, both of whom were brought back in March. The Broncos let JFM go for a reason, and they have a plan to replace him, though it's yet to take shape because of where we are on the NFL calendar.

A combination of Eyioma Uwazurike, Sai'vion Jones, Malcolm Roach, and rookie third-rounder Tyler Onyedim will contribute to the succession plan at defensive end opposite Allen. Even if the Broncos are unable to get the same pass-rush production from that group, they're very likely to see improved run defense, which was a JFM weakness.

As for how the schedule might impact Denver's defensive performance, the Broncos played every opponent tough last season. Some of this year's opponents may seem a bit intimidating on paper, but so are the Broncos.

Maybe Denver doesn't lead the NFL in sacks again this season, but with the talent on defense, it's hard to see this unit finishing anywhere but in the top 10, and probably still the top five.

Schedule

Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) before the game against the San Francisco 49ers. | Kyle Terada-Imagn Images

There's no sugar-coating it; the Broncos' schedule is tough. And it starts out with a bang, with all four NFC West teams, both games against the Chiefs, a home stand against the Jacksonville Jaguars, and a road trip to take on the Chargers within the first eight games.

That stretch of games is going to test the Broncos to the nines. They're going to be put through the refiner's fire, but if they emerge from that stretch as sharp, well-fashioned tool, they'll be in excellent position to maximize the soft middle of their schedule from Week 9 until Week 16.

The schedule stiffens up again in Week 16, with a Christmas Day game against the Buffalo Bills, followed by a road trip to take on the New England Patriots, and a regular-season finale at home against the Chargers.

If the Broncos can get through the first eight weeks at .500 or better, they'll still be in an excellent position to win the division, which would guarantee them a playoff berth. Remember, the Chiefs and Chargers also have to face the Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Rams, Bills, and Patriots, which levels the playing field in the AFC West considerably.

If the Broncos go 2-6 or 3-5 to open the first half of the season, their outlook will be greatly dependent on how the Chiefs and Chargers weather their brutal schedules. It was great to see the Broncos win 14 games last season, but that's only happened one other time in franchise history for a reason. It's hard to do, let alone repeat.

Odds are, the first team to 12 victories wins the AFC West in 2026, just because of how the schedule rotated this year division-wise.

Nix's Health

This is a question mark, no doubt. It's a concern until it isn't. Any time a team's franchise quarterback suffers a season-ending injury that requires surgery, it's going to create some uncertainty.

The fact that it was the third such fracture to Nix's right ankle only intensifies the concern. Throw in the additional clean-up procedure that Walder mentioned, which happened in April, and only further clouds Nix's outlook.

This is why the Broncos are proceeding with an abundance of caution. As much as fans want to see Nix out there for OTAs, as was the initial plan, all that matters, really, is that he's ready to go by the start of the regular season.

In order for him to be truly good to go for Week 1, though, he needs plenty of training camp reps. That's why the Broncos have circled training camp as Nix's for-sure return date, even though there's still a possibility we'll see him at some point during OTAs or manadatory mini-camp this month.

The Broncos have a tremendous player health/strength and conditioning program, and it's a big reason for the team's turnaround over the past three years. It's a cutting-edge program. That same expertise is being brought to bear on Nix's recovery, which should encourage fans, even if the oddsmakers and bettors are unaffected by it.

The Takeaway

There's a lot of fuzzy math in these FPI rankings, since they're based on both tangible and intangible factors. The truth is, the Broncos face a difficult schedule with a quarterback returning from a serious injury. There's no getting around those facts.

The Broncos may have overachieved last season, but in so doing, they developed quite the callus. That callus, and the confidence and experience gained from prevailing in so many tight, one-score games, should go a long way toward informing the Broncos' approach to the 2026 season.

The Broncos took a quantum leap forward last year, but the NFL world wants to see them do it again in the face of the obstacles listed above before giving them any benefits of the doubt. So be it.

Time will tell how it all shakes out, but I still feel very good about the Broncos' chances of winning the division.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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