Broncos' Defense Declining At Worst Time, the Numbers Show

The Broncos are running out of time to fix this.

CINCINNATI, OH - DECEMBER 28: Denver Broncos Defensive Coordinator Vance Joseph and Denver Broncos Head Coach Sean Payton look on during the NFL, American Football Herren, USA football game between the Denver Broncos and the Cincinnati Bengals on December 28, 2024, at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio. | Michael Allio / Imago / Icon Sportswire

The Denver Broncos have a lot to focus on defensively because they were one of the best units in the NFL over the first 11 weeks of the season, but have clearly fallen off. With the Broncos having already clinched the division and pushing for the top seed in the AFC, this defensive fall-off is concerning and needs to be examined. 

The defensive regression began after the Broncos' mini-bye between Weeks 10 and 11, following their first game against the Las Vegas Raiders. However, the players have identified the actual Week 12 bye as the point when the defense began to struggle.

The Numbers

Let’s do a statistical comparison between the Broncos' first 11 games and the last five.

Weeks 1-11	Per Game
Total Yards	274.4
Passing Yards	186
Rushing Yards	88.4
Sacks	4.5
Pressures	16.5
Points	17.5

The Broncos ranked fourth in EPA/Play, with the lowest allowed success rate, third in dropback EPA, with the lowest allowed dropback success rate, eighth in rush EPA, and sixth in rush success rate allowed. 

Denver had a top defense that kept games close, giving a struggling offense the chance to pull off late wins. The defense was carrying the weight of the Broncos' 11-game winning streak. 

Since the Broncos' Week 12 bye, though, it's been a different story.

Weeks 13-17	Per Game
Total Yards	299
Passing Yards	206.8
Rushing Yards	92.2
Sacks	3
Pressures	16.8
Points	21.2

For added context, let’s remove that Christmas Night Chiefs game, and just focus on Weeks 13-16

Weeks 13-16	Per Game
Total Yards	339
Passing Yards	244.3
Rushing Yards	94.8
Sacks	3.5
Pressures	18.5
Points	25.8

This reflects a stark difference from the Broncos' first 11 games, and it also shows how much the last Chiefs game is masking the numbers. To be fair, the Week 6 New York Jets game was a significant boost to the first 11-game stats, too, though it had a lesser impact because it was stretched over 10 other games. 

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A Curious Shift in Philosophy

Dec 2, 2018; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Denver Broncos head coach Vance Joseph reacts during the first quarter against the Cincinnati Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports | David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports

Let's look at the advanced metrics over the last five games and compare them to the first 11. Denver drops from third in EPA/play to 17th, with the lowest success rate dropping to the sixth-lowest, dropback EPA falling to 19th, dropback success rate dropping to eighth, and rushing EPA dropping to 12th, while their rushing success rate has become the best. 

The Broncos' pass coverage has fallen off, as has their ability to generate pressure. This led Sean Payton to say, “Not worried about the sacks... Worried about caging the quarterback, rushing properly. So we’re not focused on the sack numbers.”

The sacks helped the defense's overall success, which is obvious. But the concern over caging the quarterback was interesting, so I dug into that too. 

Denver has allowed 242 rushing yards to quarterbacks, with 125 of them coming in the last five games. So, when they were averaging 4.5 sacks per game, they were holding quarterbacks to 10.6 rush yards per game, limiting explosive plays, and being far more consistent as a unit. 

Now, the Broncos are averaging 1.5 fewer sacks, allowing 25 more rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks, allowing more explosive plays, and being an inconsistent unit. Maybe Payton should worry about the sacks because this was a significantly better unit when it was getting to the quarterback.

Of course, Payton isn't only talking about quarterback rushing yards; escaping the pocket and making plays happen through broken plays are also included. That's another thing Denver was better at in the first 11 games, so again, maybe the Broncos should worry about sacks. 

Vance Joseph's December Drop-Off

The biggest concern here isn’t Payton's questionable answer, but Joseph. It's a trend with his defenses: they have a drop-off in December, which raises the question of whether opposing coaches and quarterbacks figure out his defense, and he isn't able to adjust.

Whatever the issue is, the Broncos have to figure it out. The Jacksonville Jaguars exposed the defense's issues for much of the game, and the Green Bay Packers did the same in the first half. Getting it done in front of the Broncos' home crowd makes it even more of a concern for the playoffs if Denver clinches home-field advantage. 

The Takeaway

This second mini-bye has given Joseph and the Broncos a few extra days to look over the tape and game plan for the Los Angeles Chargers, where a win clinches them the AFC’s top seed. The need to get things figured out defensively starts with this game, but it will carry over to the playoffs.

However, if the Broncos can clinch the top seed, they'll get a bye in the playoffs and more time to correct these issues. 

Payton also said that clinching the top seed is vital, as it's one fewer game Denver can lose. The Broncos have Super Bowl aspirations, and winning the division was a stepping stone.

Getting the top seed and then winning the conference are the next two steps to the Super Bowl. To get there, the Broncos need their defense back to the form it had in the first 11 games.