Broncos vs. Jaguars: 5 Bold Predictions for Week 16

It's time to render this week's bold Denver Broncos predictions, with the Jacksonville Jaguars in town.

Dec 2, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) passes the ball in the first quarter against the Cleveland Browns at Empower Field at Mile High. | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

The door is open for the Denver Broncos to clinch the AFC West and the top seed in the conference, but they will need help to do that this week. However, as long as the Broncos win, they control their destiny, opening the door to clinch on Christmas Day against the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Broncos have to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars first. 

The Jaguars aren't an easy matchup for the Broncos, which makes achieving this week's bold predictions even more critical. During their 11-game win streak, the Broncos have achieved at least one of my bold predictions in almost every game, and as they say, the proof is in the pudding.

Suffice it to say, realizing even one of these bold predictions would give the Broncos a very favorable shot at winning. Let's get to them. 

Broncos Hold Jaguars Under 25% Pressure Rate

Jacksonville has a season-average pressure rate of 33.9%, which ranks 20th in the NFL, while the Broncos' offensive average pressure rate allowed is 27.5%, the third-lowest. The Broncos have six games under that mark, but since Week 9, their average pressure rate has been over 30%. 

The Jaguars have been held under a 25% pressure rate only three times this season, with one of those games coming last week against the New York Jets. The Jags have found ways to get it done all season long, and Denver will need its offensive line to play at a high level to achieve this bold prediction. 

Bo Nix Throws 300-Plus Yards & 3 TDs

Only three times this season has an opposing team passed for more than 300 yards against this Jaguars defense, and only three times have they allowed at least three passing touchdowns. There was only one game in which the Jaguars allowed both, and that was in Week 2. 

Nix has three games this season over 300 yards and three games with at least three touchdowns, with the Green Bay Packers game being the only game he did both. That Green Bay Packers' defense has similar strengths and weaknesses to the Jaguars, which carries over to this week and this bold prediction. 

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Trevor Lawrence Sacked 5 Times

Oct 30, 2022; London, United Kingdom; Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) is tackled by Denver Broncos defensive end Dre'Mont Jones (93) in the second half during an NFL International Series game at Wembley Stadium. The Bronco defeated the Jaguars 21-17. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Three times this season, the Jaguars have allowed at least five sacks, and all have come against solid-to-good pass-rush duos. However, none of those three teams had the depth and widespread ability to get after the quarterback. That's part of why Denver will achieve that this week. 

As for the Broncos' defense, they have five games with at least five sacks as they continue to push for the single-season sack record of 72. They are 15 sacks away from beating it with three games left, putting the record in jeopardy.

Another big day will put the Broncos back on track, and they are going to push for that record against a mediocre Jaguars offensive line. 

Broncos Take Ball Away 3 Times

With the pressure Denver can generate up front, that can translate into takeaways, and it has started to do so over recent weeks. On the season, the Jaguars have turned the ball over 16 times, but they have cleaned that up of late. 

Lawrence hasn’t thrown an interception or fumbled in the last three games. In fact, as a team, the Jaguars have only had two fumbles in their previous three games, so the opportunities haven’t been there. Something about that suggests a false sense of security and overconfidence, which leads to takeaways by the Broncos. 

Both Teams Combine for 20 Penalties for 300 Yards

This may not be all that bold, as these are the NFL's top two most-penalized teams. The Broncos and Jaguars have combined for 229 penalties and over 2,000 penalty yards. With Shawn Hochuli as the ref, who is the second-most penalizing officiating crew, this may be a long game with penalties.