History reveals why fans shouldn't expect much from Broncos' TE Noah Fant as a rookie

When you're a first-round pick, high expectations come with that distinction. So many Denver Broncos fans are expecting that tight end Noah Fant, taken 20th overall in the 2019 NFL Draft, should have an immediate impact.

However, history really isn't on Fant's side. That's because the overwhelming majority of tight ends, even when they are first-round picks, don't make an impact as a rookie.

Don't believe me? Consider this: A player who some would argue as the greatest tight end to ever play the game — and a first-round pick on top of that — posted this stat line as a rookie: 33 receptions, 368 yards and two touchdowns.

The player in question would be a member of the Pro Football Hall of Fame Class of 2019: Tony Gonzalez.

Gonzalez isn't alone in that regard. The majority of top tight ends didn't have a major impact as a rookie. The ones who did were the exception, not the rule.

Let's look at Athlon Sports' top-25 tight ends of all time and examine how they did in their rookie seasons. I have noted those tight ends who were first-round picks with an asterisk (*) and, in such cases, the overall pick at which they were taken.

1. * Tony Gonzalez: 33 catches, 368 yards, 2 TDs (13th)

2. Antonio Gates: 24 catches, 389 yards, 2 TDs

3. Rob Gronkowski: 42 catches, 546 yards, 10 TDs

4. Shannon Sharpe: 7 catches, 99 yards, 1 TD

5. * Kellen Winslow Sr.: 25 catches, 255 yards, 2 TDs (13th)

6. * Ozzie Newsome: 38 catches, 589 yards, 2 TDs (23rd)

7. * Mike Ditka: 56 catches, 1,076 yards, 12 TDs (5th)

8. John Mackey: 35 catches, 726 yards, 7 TDs

9. Jason Witten: 35 catches, 347 yards, 1 TD

10. Dave Casper: four catches, 26 yards, 3 TDs

11. * Greg Olsen: 39 catches, 391 yards, 2 TDs (31st)

12. Jackie Smith: 28 catches, 445 yards, 2 TDs

13. Jimmy Graham: 31 catches, 356 yards, 5 TDs

14. Jerry Smith: 19 catches, 257 yards, 2 TDs

15. Ben Coates: 10 catches, 95 yards, 1 TD

16. Charlie Sanders: 40 catches, 533 yards, 1 TD

17. Todd Christensen: no stats

18. * Keith Jackson: 81 catches, 869 yards, six TDs (13th)

19. * Dallas Clark: 29 catches, 340 yards, 1 TD (24th)

20. * Heath Miller: 39 catches, 459 yards, 6 TDs (30th)

21. * Vernon Davis: 20 catches, 265 yards, 3 TDs (6th)

22. * Riley Odoms: 21 catches, 320 yards, 1 TD (5th)

23. Jay Novacek: 1 catch, 4 yards

24. Brent Jones: 2 catches, 35 yards

25. * Jeremy Shockey: 74 catches, 894 yards, 2 TDs (14th)

You'll notice multiple Hall-of-Famers at the top of the list, and a couple who are headed for Canton, but how many of them actually made an impact as a rookie? Not many.

Mike Ditka posted a season that was a rarity for rookie tight ends and one that hasn't been approached since — though Keith Jackson came close. Rob Gronkowski and Jeremy Shockey would be the others who made impacts as rookies, though in later seasons, each would post better stats in the categories in which they didn't post big numbers.

But the rest of the tight ends were average at best. That includes Hall-of-Famers who were first-round picks (Tony Gonzalez, Ozzie Newsome, Kellen Winslow) and the two best tight ends the Broncos ever had (Shannon Sharpe, Riley Odoms).

Granted, there are some players who have circumstances that impacted their play — Sharpe, for example, was buried on the wide receiver depth chart as a rookie. But not every tight end can be considered a victim of circumstance. In most cases, it was simply a learning curve as they adjusted to life in the NFL.

It's not limited to tight ends who didn't make Athlon's list. George Kittle, for example, caught just 43 passes for 515 yards and two touchdowns his rookie season. Travis Kelce missed his rookie season because of injuries, and while he posted good numbers in his second season, he did even better in future seasons. Todd Heap, a first-round pick for the Ravens (31st overall), had just 16 catches for 206 yards and one score as a rookie.

What it means for Fant

I could go on, but the point is that Broncos fans shouldn't expect Noah Fant to blow people away as a rookie. If he does manage to have a rookie season like Ditka or Jackson, then Broncos fans should certainly be giddy.

But it's more likely that Fant will produce as the likes of Gonzalez, Winslow and Newsome did as rookies. Those reasons range from other Broncos likely to take snaps, to learning how to run all the routes in the playbook.

Certainly, Fant can do better in areas in which execution is a simple affair, such as not dropping a good pass thrown his way. But in other areas, there's a level of complexity that comes with the position in the NFL, and that takes time to learn.

What Broncos fans should really focus on is how Fant does in his second season in the NFL. Improvement from one season to the next will tell the real story about what Fant does as a player.

In some cases, it might take a while to see a real impact. Getting back to Tony Gonzalez, he was better in his second season with 59 catches, 621 yards and two scores, then he broke out in his third season with 76 catches, 849 yards and 11 touchdowns.

Kellen Winslow broke out in his second season in the NFL with 89 catches, 1,290 yards and nine touchdowns. Ozzie Newsome improved in his second season with 55 catches, 781 yards and nine scores.

Sure, it would be nice to see Noah Fant post a rookie season similar to Keith Jackson or the touchdown tally Rob Gronkowski had. But the key is for Fant to get better with each game — especially in areas that aren't reflected by statistics — and for him to be better in his second season than he was as a rookie.

And if he does improve from season to season as Tony Gonzalez did, not only will the Broncos get what they want out of their first-round pick — they just might have the next great Broncos tight end.

(Hat tip to Joe Rowles and Joseph Maloney, the former who shared a tweet from the latter about how Hall of Fame tight ends performed as rookies. Maloney's tweet inspired this article.)

Add us as a preferred source on Google