One Statistic Has Some Analysts Worried About the Broncos

NFL history shows that it's hard for teams to duplicate success in this statistical area the Denver Broncos dominated last year.

DENVER, CO - DECEMBER 21: Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton and quarterback Bo Nix (10) have a word before a game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High on December 21, 2025 in Denver, Colorado. | Dustin Bradford / Icon Sportswire / Imago

Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix conjured some potent Mile High Magic last season. 

In only his second year as a pro, Nix's sensational come-from-behind mojo came to define the Broncos’ playoff push, which led them all the way to the AFC championship game as the conference’s No. 1 seed. 

Nix’s uncanny ability to win games late played a massive part in the Broncos finally wrestling the AFC West away from the Kansas City Chiefs, but many have predicted that football luck can just as easily run out moving forward. 

Ironically enough, as the Chiefs’ late-game magic evaporated, Nix became an expert at pulling rabbits out of his helmet as he orchestrated 11 comeback wins, which led the league. 

NFL Media’s Matt Okada views those 11 one-score wins as a defining number for Nix and the Broncos, though not in a positive way. And he's not alone.

“Last season, the Broncos won 11 one-score games, most in the NFL. But leading the league in that stat is historically inauspicious, as it tends to result in regression toward the mean the ensuing year,” Okada wrote. 

“For example, Kansas City won 11 contests decided by one score in 2024 to just one in 2025. With an elite defense and an improved offense, including trade acquisition Jaylen Waddle, Denver is positioned to compete in the AFC again. That is if they can keep winning tight games in 2026.”

Can't Play Down to Opponents

Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) is pressured by New York Jets linebacker Jermaine Johnson II (11). | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Despite letting the free-agent portion of the offseason largely pass them by, the Broncos’ front office has made significant improvements on both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball to help them avoid having a huge drop-off in one-score games.

The Broncos often played down to the level of inferior opponents, which meant Nix had to work miracles late in games. It’s a tendency that has dogged the Broncos since Sean Payton became head coach. 

Adding Waddle'sexplosive dynamic of Waddle to the mix goes beyond giving Nix merely another offensive safety net; it should enable new play-caller Davis Webb to get aggressive and stretch the field a whole lot more. 

The Broncos outscoring opponents and putting their foot on opponents' necks when they have the chance could get a lot easier now that Nix has a more explosive arsenal of weapons surrounding him in 2026. 

The Takeaway

Payton himself has sounded the alarm about the risk of the Broncos’ one-score good fortune reversing, so expect the team to have its guard up. In truth, the Broncos will be more determined than ever to avoid the nail-biting finishes.

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