The Truth About ESPN's Concerning Broncos Prediction

In the NFL, it feels like almost every year, at least one team goes from worst to first.

But how often do we see a first-to-worst result? ESPN just dropped its Football Power Index full-season simulation for 2026, and it predicts the Broncos will finish 7-10 and miss the playoffs, while the Kansas City Chiefs retake the AFC West.

"The 12-5 Chiefs earned the No. 2 seed in the AFC, with the Chargers making the playoffs as the No. 5 seed at 10-7. The Chargers got the last laugh, though, beating Kansas City 27-24 at Arrowhead Stadium in the divisional playoffs.

"As for the Broncos, who were arguably a Bo Nix injury short of making it to the Super Bowl a year ago? They regressed badly and finished 7-10," ESPN's Seth Walder wrote of the simulated results.

A Football Fugazi

Sean Payton. — Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton looks on during a preseason game. | Dustin Bradford / IMAGO / Icon Sportswire

ESPN's FPI-simulated season has shaken some Broncos fans because it so accurately predicted last year's outcomes, including Denver winning the division and Kansas City missing the playoffs. However, ESPN's 2025 simulation predicted that the Indianapolis Colts would win the AFC South and the Tennessee Titans would secure a Wildcard berth. Neither team made the playoffs.

ESPN's 2025 FPI simulation also projected the Dallas Cowboys to win the NFC East and the Philadelphia Eagles to miss the playoffs. Philadelphia actually won the NFC East, while the Cowboys missed the postseason.

I could go through and list multiple other misses from ESPN's 2025 FPI simulation, including the Arizona Cardinals not only making the playoffs but winning a postseason game and the Buffalo Bills defeating the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Super Bowl, but none of it is real.

Much like Matthew McConaughey's character said about the snake-oil process of selling stocks in the motion picture The Wolf of Wall Street, these FPI predictions are a "fugazi."

"It's a whazy. It's a woozie. It's fairy dust. It doesn't exist. It's never landed. It is no matter. It's not on the elemental chart. It's not... real."
Mark Hanna as portrayed by McConaughey.

Truth About the Schedule

Sean Payton and Bo Nix — Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton has a word with quarterback Bo Nix (10) before a game between the Kansas City Chiefs. | Dustin Brandford / IMAGO / Icon Sportswire

Much has been made about the Broncos' tough first-place schedule, especially the brutality of the first six weeks. It's definitely the toughest first six weeks I've seen on the Broncos' schedule since I began covering the team more than a decade ago, but here's what people miss when agonizing over it: the Chiefs have a tough schedule, too, and so do the Los Angeles Chargers.

Yes, the Broncos earned a first-place schedule, but when it comes to the NFL's annual intra-divisional and intra-conference rotations, it was the AFC West's turn to take the AFC East and the NFC West. Those two divisions produced five playoff teams last season.

The Broncos have to face them all — but so too must the Chiefs, Chargers, and Las Vegas Raiders. That's right: Denver will face the Buffalo Bills, New England Patriots, San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Rams, and Seattle Seahawks, but so will the Chiefs, Chargers, and Raiders.

The only difference is that the Broncos face all four NFC West teams inside of the first seven weeks, while the Chiefs, for example, don't draw an opponent from that division until Week 7. The Broncos will be taking a drink from the firehose by taking on the entire NFC West by the time they rematch the Chiefs in Denver in Week 8, while Kansas City's matchups with those teams are more spread out throughout the season.

The Refiner's Fire

Nik Bonitto and Patrick Mahomes — Nik Bonitto sacks Patrick Mahomes at Arrowhead Stadium. | David Smith / IMAGO / Newscom World

When it comes to removing a Band-Aid, do you prefer to slowly peel it off millimeter by millimeter, or would you rather just rip it off? That may be a bit too reductive an example, but look at it this way: by starting off the season with seven stiff matchups in their first eight games, the Broncos will begin the 2026 campaign in the crucible.

The pressure of that hammer and the heat of such a furnace could do one of two things:

Pound the Broncos into smithereens.
Strengthen and sharpen them into a sharp weapon.

If the Broncos are who I think they are, coming off a 14-win season in which they came within one Nix injury of advancing to the Super Bowl, this crucible will strengthen them. By the time the Chiefs see the Broncos for the second time in Week 8, the callus Denver will have built up by then could be something terrible for any opponent to behold.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs and Chargers still have to face all those opponents, but they'll be spread more evenly through the season. It could be death by a thousand cuts.

Beyond the opponents they share with the Broncos, the Chiefs will draw the Colts and the Cincinnati Bengals, who, at first glance, don't seem all that threatening given that both missed the playoffs last year. But injuries torpedoed the outlook of both those teams, and they could be poised for a resurgence in 2026, especially with Joe Burrow returning to the Bengals and Daniel Jones back with the Colts.

The Chargers draw the Houston Texans, Baltimore Ravens, and Buccaneers, beyond the shared divisional opponents, so, again, it's not like L.A. has it easy. The unique opponents the Broncos draw beyond the ones we've mentioned are a result of their first-place finish: the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 2, at the Carolina Panthers in Week 9, and at the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 12.

That Jaguars game will be tough, but the Panthers and Steelers aren't overly scaring anyone. The point here is that, while the NFL schedule-makers gave the Broncos one heck of a challenge in the first half of the season, the AFC West playing field has been leveled.

This might not be another 14-win season. The first AFC West team to 10 wins could get the divisional crown, but even if the Broncos finish with 10, 11, or 12 wins, I can promise you that no team will want to face them in the playoffs.

Iron sharpens iron.

The 2026 Broncos are a better team than the AFC championship game squad from this past January, and not just because Nix is back and healthy. Running back J.K. Dobbins and safety Brandon Jones are both back, and the Broncos upgraded the roster by adding Jaylen Waddle and their 2026 draft class.

The Takeaway

The games will be decided on the field, not by some computer simulation or Excel-sheet arithmetic based on fuzzy, subjective stats. The media likes to talk about how motivated the Chiefs are this year, but I would argue the Broncos are even more driven because the football gods robbed them of their just reward in the playoffs.

This is a Broncos squad hungry to make up for lost time and opportunity. We'll get our first inkling of how this season could shape up in the very first game, with the Broncos taking on the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium on Monday Night Football.

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